PokerTips Blog

In July, we published a 2011 November Nine preview that focused each player’s odds to win the tournament as offered by PinnacleSports. Let’s see how those odds have shifted in the more than 3 months since that article was written.

Interestingly, all but two players odds have gotten shorter since July and by a much wider margin than the two other players’ odds got longer. In other words, Pinnacle basically increased the overall amount of vig they are taking on this prop by shortening 7 of the 9 player’s odds (some of them considerably) while lengthening the odds of only two players (and not by much).

Biggest Gainers

A huge amount of action must have gone on Ben Lamb in the past few months as his odds have dropped all the way to +434 from +620. He is without a doubt the public’s favorite bet for the 2011 WSOP Main Event Final Table. Taking him not to win at -534 is probably the best bet on the board right now (sorry, benba!)

The first-ever German to make the WSOP Main Event Final Table, Pius Heinz, has seen some love from the betting market. His odds have dropped from +1100 down to +881.

The Englishman on the short stack, Samuel Holden, has dropped to +1208 from +1525.

Apparently there are some people who think it will be in the air next week; Phil Collins’ odds have dropped to +566 from +679.

Mostly Holding Steady

Part of the young American contingency, Matt Giannetti, has seen his odds shorten a bit to +603 from +621.

The wild card of the final table, Ukrainian Anton Makiievskyi‘s odds have shortened a bit to +1083 from +1262.

Young Irishman Eoghan O’Dea‘s odds have also shortened slightly to +429 from +483.

Slightly Longer

The Czech chip leader, Martin Staszko has become a bit better value since July. He is now listed at +423 up from +414.

The elder statesman of the final table, Badih Bounahra from Belize, would now generate a win of $1,086 on a bet of $100 as opposed to just $1,026 had the bet been placed in July.

The final table resumes this Sunday, November 6th, from the Penn and Teller Theater at Rio in Las Vegas.

Subject: Poker is reporting that Groupe Bernard Tapie (GBT) has reached an agreement with the U.S. Department of Justice to allow the French investment group’s acquisition of Full Tilt Poker to continue. The deal will allow for payment of all players worldwide if Full Tilt’s current shareholders approve of the GBT acquisition.

Subject: Poker posted the following email they say was sent from Ray Bitar to FTP shareholders this morning:

Dear members,

I am pleased to announce that today the Department of Justice and Groupe Bernard Tapie have reached an agreement in principle regarding the acquisition of the companies comprising FullTiltPoker. My understanding is the deal provides that in exchange for an agreed upon payment by GBT, and a GBT commitment to assume responsibility for payment of ROW players, DoJ will reimburse US players and settle the outstanding civil litigation with the companies comprising FTP. Beyond these conditions, issues like the time frame and process for repayment of players remain unclear at this point and time.

With DoJ’s consent now in hand, GBT may now proceed to finalize an agreement to acquire the companies or assets that comprise FTP. That agreement will very likely address the status of your shares or interests in the successor company. When I receive that agreement, I will coordinate with our attorneys to ensure the terms of that proposed agreement will be shared with the membership and voted on.

-Ray

If Full Tilt shareholders agree to GBT’s proposal, GBT will assume responsibility of debt to non-US players and the DOJ will create a fund to repay U.S. players. It’s anyone’s guess as to how long this might take.

This news makes the possibility that players will receive the entirety of their Full Tilt balance, and that Full Tilt may one day reopen for business, begin to appear rather likely. However, there still appears to be a long way to go before the deal is complete. Two-thirds of Full Tilt ownership interest must vote to approve the GBT acquisition.

Professional poker player Al Krux and his son Adam were arrested recently on felony marijuana charges. According to Syracuse.com, the two were in possession of a combined 40 pounds of marijuana. An additional 90 marijuana plants and $5,000 in cash were found in a search of Adam Krux’s home. The street value of the drugs is estimated at $200,000.

CNYCentral.com reports that police were acting on tips from neighbors of suspicious activity at the home of Adam Krux.

Investigators had been working on the case for the past month. In a coordinated bust, they stopped Al Krux and found 25 pounds of marijuana in his car. Adam Krux was stopped in possession of 15 pounds of marijuana. Both men are being held with bail set at $20,000 each.

Al Krux has a long history in the poker world first cashing in a WSOP event in 1981. In 1994, he made the final table of the WSOP Main Event finishing 5th. Russ Hamilton was the eventual winner of that tournament. Krux won a bracelet in the 1996 WSOP in a $1,500 pot-limit hold’em event. He is perhaps best remembered for reaching the final table of the 2004 WSOP Main Event where he would bust out in 6th place for an $800,000 payday. Krux was chronicled by ESPN as a lifelong gambler and family man who wanted to win the tournament as a gift to his family for dealing with years of his unreliable income. After his bustout hand, Dan Harrington consoled Krux telling him that finishing 8th in 2004 is just as big of an accomplishment as winning it all back in the 1990s.

Krux has just 5 WSOP cashes since busting out of the 2004 Main Event, all of them relatively small.

The Los Angeles Times is reporting that another class action lawsuit has been filed against Full Tilt Poker.

L.A. residents Lary Kennedy and Greg Omotoy filed the suit in California federal court and are seeking $900 million in damages. They accuse the site of fraud, unjust enrichment, “a pattern of racketeering,” “brazen money-laundering” and more. The suit names Ray Bitar, Howard Lederer, and Chris Ferguson, but also names poker celebrities like Phil Ivey and Gus Hansen as they allegedly “helped promote the website and attract players.”

This is not the first time Kennedy and Omotoy have sued Full Tilt Poker. In 2009, the duo sued the site seeking to recover $80,000 that was confiscated from them after they were accused of employing bots on the site and multi-accounting. That suit was dismissed by a U.S. District Court judge a year later.

Full Tilt is currently facing a number of other lawsuits including with the District Attorney for the Southern District of New York, a class-action lawsuit filed by poker player Todd Terry and others, a suit filed in Canadian court by a consumer advocacy group, and a suit by a software company that is accusing Full Tilt and PokerStars of pushing them out of deals to provide software support to television networks that broadcast poker.

None of these other suits are seeking anywhere close to the amount of damages as Kennedy and Omotoy’s class action suit. How this latest lawsuit will affect Full Tilt’s alleged deal with French investors Groupe Bernard Tapie remains to be seen.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the proposed Full Tilt purchase by a group of French investors could involve giving equity stakes to players owed the most money from the site. The Journal also reports that the French investment group could be looking to current Full Tilt owners as a source of investment capital. However, no existing owners would be part of company management moving forward.

Both revelations are a sign that the French bailout will not be a squeaky clean process. Members of the poker community had hoped for an investor who would cut a check for the sum of player balances and pending DOJ fines in order to acquire the site. The deal with French investors does not appear it will be of this nature.

By offering players with large sums of money stuck on the site an equity percentage, the French investment group can lower the amount of capital they need up front. Rather than paying full sticker price for the site, it appears they are attempting to offer less up-front capital while offering equity to players with huge balances. From the perspective of these players, this is much less desirable than simply being paid back in full. Rather than getting their money up-front, these players will now be put in a position to root for the site’s success in hopes that, over time, they are able to recoup the money they had stuck on the site. This equity handout plan will first have to be approved by the DOJ.

The DOJ would also have to agree to allow current owners to invest capital in the new company. This is a potentially contentious aspect of the French investors’ proposal; the poker world may feel uneasy about flocking back to the site while knowing the same owners who crashed it the first time around stand to profit from its resurrection.

In conclusion, these latest revelations from the Wall Street Journal about the dynamics of the Full Tilt bailout make it clear that the plan is less than ideal for players hoping to recoup their balances. Additionally, it is apparent that the agreement has a long road ahead before it can be finalized.

In a not altogether surprising piece of news, the Alderney Gambling Control Commission (AGCC) announced today that they are revoking the gaming licences of Full Tilt Poker.

Said AGCC in a statement on the matter, “At a hearing held in London over six days, it emerged that FTP had fundamentally misled AGCC about their operational integrity by continuously reporting as liquid funds balances that had been covertly seized or restrained by US authorities, or that were otherwise not actually available to the operator. Serious breaches of AGCC regulations include false reporting, unauthorised provision of credit, and failure to report material events.”

They continued, “It is important to note that the revocation of FTP’s licences does not, as has been suggested, prevent a reactivation of the business under new ownership and management. Unresolved claims by players against FTP become a matter for the police and civil authorities. Now that FTP’s licences have been revoked, AGCC no longer has jurisdiction over these companies.”

Based on recent proof provided by the U.S. government that Full Tilt has far less money on hand than is owed to players, it is not surprising that AGCC would decide to revoke their gaming license. However, it is nice to bring closure to this aspect of the Full Tilt debacle. One is also left with some reassurance that AGCC truly does have the best interests of players in mind as they claim to and is not little more than a puppet organization in bed with the online poker companies (like the Kahawake Gaming Commission has demonstrated themselves to be by their continued support of UB, Absolute Poker, and even Full Tilt to whom they issue a secondary license).

This news likely makes Full Tilt somewhat less appealing of an investment option since now any buyer must also deal with the process of getting the site re-licensed.

A number of U.S. politicans have come forward stating they will return campaign contributions given to them by Full Tilt Poker.

Pro-poker Massachusetts Congressman Barney Frank had received $18,600 from Full Tilt since 2007. Frank had received another $14,000 from the Poker Players Alliance which was known to be heavily funded by the beleaguered online poker room. The Congressman said he wants to find a way to give the money to those who were defrauded and, failing that, will give the money to charity.

Republicans have not passed up on the opportunity to drag Frank’s name through the mud. Said GOP spokesman Tim Buckley, “It appears Mr. Frank is another congressman willing to associate with criminals.”

According to Jon Ralston via Twitter, a spokesman for Senator Harry Reid commented, “We will be disposing of the contributions associated with Full Tilt Poker as soon as possible.”

The Boston Globe reported that Howard Lederer, Chris Ferguson, and Rafe Furst donated a combined $131,000 to Democratic lawmakers and $42,000 to Republicans since 2007. The Poker Players Alliance received $90,000 from the trio, roughly a third of its funding, in that time.

The Epic Poker League Standards and Conduct Committee today announced the indefinite suspension of league members Chris Ferguson and Howard Lederer pending the outcome of the DOJ’s investigation regarding their roles as directors of Full Tilt Poker.

The suspensions were the result of a committee vote. It is pointed out on the EPL’s site that Lederer’s sister, EPL founder Annie Duke, is “a non-voting member of the committee” and “does not participate in any committee decisions or discussions that involve league member discipline.”

I spoke with most recent EPL champion, Mike McDonald, one of the eight EPL Standards and Conduct Committee members, who explained how the EPL committee reaches its decision: “the committee discusses the issue, everyone voices their opinion, we lay out all alternatives and then vote on what to do with them.” McDonald stated that a simple majority is all that is needed to suspend a player and that just four of the committee members gathered to determine Lederer and Ferguson’s fate. The EPL website states that committee member and Team Full Tilt Pro Andy Bloch recused himself from consideration of the issue.

Suspending Lederer and Ferguson was a smart move by the EPL. Neither man will be participating in an EPL event anytime soon regardless, so nothing really changes on that front, but the EPL does get to maintain its integrity by not granting the men a free pass for their role in Full Tilt’s demise after having strongly enforced their code of conduct against a convicted child molester (Michael DiVita) and a player with significant financial debts to the poker community (Chino Rheem).

Rafe Furst, an owner and director of Full Tilt, as alleged by the U.S. DOJ, released a statement today on his blog. Here is the entirety of Furst’s statement:

By now you’ve no doubt heard about the allegations against me in a Federal civil suit regarding Full Tilt Poker. Because of the seriousness of the allegations I’m not able to comment at all about the pending case, much as I would like to. From a moral, personal and interpersonal perspective I feel I’ve got nothing to hide. And since I trust in our system of justice and have the utmost respect for my legal counsel, I will refrain from talking about the case until it’s resolved.

What I would like to express here is concern for my family, friends, colleagues and supporters who believe in me and who feel my pain as if it were their own. It sucks to have to endure the character assassination and potshots being taken at me in the media and social networks without being able to defend myself. Privately though I have received incredible support from many of you, and I can’t tell you how much it means to me. May you never have to endure something like this, but if you do, I hope you have friends as good as mine.

To the skeptics, please consider that not everything you read is true, and our society is built on a presumption of innocence until proven otherwise. It’s difficult to take back hurtful things that you might later regret, when the damage has already been done.

To those of you who have asked what you can do to show your support, I am grateful for the offer. My only request at this time would be to not let the naysayers and haters be the only voices out there expressing their opinion of me. My twitter is @rafefurst, and I’d love to hear from you publicly.

With Respect and Love,

Rafe

Rafe does make one fair point here: that he is entitled to the presumption of innocence until proven otherwise. The American justice system is built on that dignity and it should be extended to all Full Tilt defendants until the government can prove their case against them.

However, it does seem at least a little ballsy of Furst to release a statement at this time which, more or less, is aimed at eliciting pity from the masses while offering none to those whose livelihoods have been affected by the poorly-ran company he profited wildly from. Maybe Furst really is totally blameless. But even if that is the case, he would have been wise to include some type of apology or sympathetic remarks to the collection of poker players who have more than $300 million inaccessible due to Full Tilt Poker’s practices.

On a day that many had hoped would yield information regarding Full Tilt Poker’s hearing with their gaming license agency, Alderney Gambling Control Commission (AGCC), the U.S. Department of Justice accused Full Tilt Poker of running a “global Ponzi scheme”.

According to the Wall Street Journal, “The U.S. Attorney in the Southern District of New York filed a motion Tuesday to amend an earlier civil complaint to allege that Mr. Ferguson, Mr. Lederer and two other directors for the website, Full Tilt Poker, operated what the Justice Department says was a Ponzi scheme that allowed the company to pay out $444 million to themselves and other owners, which included other famous poker players.”

Subject: Poker states that the two other directors in question are Rafe Furst and Ray Bitar.

The government alleges in their complaint that the company misrepresented to players that their funds were being held safely when in actuality they were being distributed to owners as profits. “Full Tilt was not a legitimate poker company, but a global Ponzi scheme,” said Preet Bharara, U.S. Attorney for the Southern District, in a statement.

A memorandum summarizing the DOJ’s amendment states that Full Tilt’s Board of Directors, allegedly Ray Bitar, Howard Lederer, Chris Ferguson, and Rafe Furst, paid to themselves and other owners “approximately $443,860,529.89″ from April of 2007 to April of 2011.

In the statement, Mr. Bharara said Full Tilt “cheated and abused its own players to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars” and that “insiders lined their own pockets with funds picked from the pockets of their most loyal customers while blithely lying to both players and the public alike about the safety and security of the money deposited with the company.”

One way in which this update is significant is that, before today, Howard Lederer and Chris Ferguson were not officially in question by the government. The original Black Friday indictment listed only Ray Bitar and Nelson Burtnick from the Full Tilt camp.

The amended civil complaint states that Howard Lederer received $42 million from the Full Tilt “Ponzi scheme” and that Ferguson, Bitar, and Furst received $85 million, $41 million, and $12 million, respectively. The document states that another 19 owners received the remainder of the $443 million that was distributed including one owner (Phil Ivey?) who received $40 million as well as millions more characterized as loans from Full Tilt. Approximately $4.4 million of these loans remain unpaid.

The complaint also states that, “As of March 31, 2011, Full Tilt Poker owed approximately $390 million to players around the world, including approximately $150 million owed to players in the United States. At that time Full Tilt Poker had only approximately $60 million on deposit in its bank accounts.”

Also featured in the complaint is an email dated June 12th, 2011 from Ray Bitar in which he expresses concern over an announcement of company layoffs saying that it could cause a “new run on the bank” and that “we can’t even take a five million run”.