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Is Monogamy +EV?

While most gamblers are known to be superstitious, we poker players pride ourselves on only focusing only on expected value. Sure, there are some poker players that will move to the ‘hot’ seat at the table and carry a lucky rabbit’s foot, but they are generally the donators at the table.

I’m generally incredibly rational myself and don’t delve into any superstitions. However, over the past few years, there has been one odd correlation that I can’t seem to explain. I’ve ran regression analysis and found the correlation to be technically statistically significant, but there doesn’t seem to be any causation to result in the correlation.

You see, it all started back in early 2008. I had one of the most amazing gambling runs of all time. Anything I touched turned into gold. Whether it was poker, dice, or sports betting, everything went well for me.

Now, before  I go any further, I want to clarify to all the nits out there about betting on dice. While it is -EV like all casino games, the house edge for dice in American casinos if you play pass line/max odds is about .02%-.3% depending on the rules. When you factor in comps, the comps make up for the EV you bet., so it’s fairly EV neutral, but with high variance. A more detailed description can be found at Wizard of Odds.

During my gambling heater, I was near the end of my relationship with Girlfriend #1. While Girlfriend #1 was a nice girl, I was tired of just jamming her. Eventually, around April, we broke up, and I began dating around again. My gambling started to suffer from more bad beats. Things began to spiral downwards and more downwards, especially once I began dating more girls.

In early December, I picked up Girlfriend #2. Soon after we became exclusive, we went to Vegas and I booked a nice 5 figure win. Things began to turn my way.

We took our second Vegas trip right around New Years. Gambling started off well again. On New Years Eve, we decided to ring in 2009 with a three-way with a random girl. The next day, I got owned at gambling. We had another three-way in Vegas a couple days after, and again, gambling did not go so well.

Upon returning home, we kept the ménage à trois thing going as a once a month thing. My gambling cold streak also kept going. If I had kings, he had aces. If he had kings and I had aces, he hit his king. Any team I bet on was destined to lose. Dice was no longer a game with a .1% house edge. The gambling gods somehow made it a 30% house edge when I was playing.

Girlfriend #2 and I broke up in early May. I returned to dating around and the gambling losses continued. I started to think that perhaps the gambling gods just had it out for me for some reason. Why were they so good to me in early 2008 and so vicious now? While variance is annoying, these swings seemed to be beyond several standard deviations from what I would expect.

In comes in Girlfriend #3. We started dating mid-August. She’s not into the three-way thing, so I ‘m stuck with hitting the same hole all the time. At first, I lamented this situation.  However, I’ve noticed that I seem to be able to win again. No longer is every bet destined to lose. I’m starting to….win again. What does this mean?

Quite frankly, it appears the monogamy gods and the gambling gods seem to be colluding in regards to me. What sort of devilish pact do they have? They seem to want to exercise some sort of vicious control over the vice in my life.

The true test came a few weeks ago at the strip club. My girlfriend and I were hanging out, and one of the strippers came over. Sure enough, it became increasingly clear that the stripper wanted to hook up with my girlfriend, and would let me join in too as a sort of ‘tax’ she’d pay for the privelege of fooling around with her. My girlfriend made it clear to me that it wasn’t going to happen.
While all I could do was feel sorry for myself at the time, I just won $1k playing Omaha while writing this entry. I guess monogamy really is +EV. Damn colluding gambling/monogamy gods.

Between polygamy and money though, the choice is clear. Money.


 



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