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-   -   SNG Analyzed (http://www.pokertips.org/forums/showthread.php?t=37270)

Hustlr Nov 03, 2006 6:57pm

SNG Analyzed
 
Here are some hands from the last #60 Turbo SNG I played. Just figured I would pick one to analyze, for mine and everyone else's benefit. I'll post the flash replayer link since it's easier that trying to decipher the HH's.

Hand 1 - Call all in with A8o in BB

7 players left at 75/150. I'm in BB with 915 left after posting. I've played with BB John a thousand times. He is a very good SNG player. That means I can put him on a much wider range of hands here than I could vs an inexperienced player. He has 10 BBs, but he is only risking 6 BBs with his push. He has to pick up chips and I expect him to push with a lot of better than average hands.

First lets, see what the SNG PT's thinks of his push. Like I said, my calling range is looser against this specific opponent, so let's say my range is something like "A7+, 44+, KQ+"

SNG PT says:
EV Fold = $53.73 , EV Push = $62.52

He can push with any two cards here. Just based on my calling ranges, I'll call around 11% of the time. With 225 in the pot, it's +EV to push on me.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now, for my call with A8o. Since I know that he knows to push any two cards here, I chose to call being ahead of his range. I dont think he pushes absolutely any two. He might fold 42o and 93o. But let's assume he is pushing any two cards.

SNG PT says: EV Fold $33.25 , EV Call = $42.74

According to SNG PT, if I think he is pushing any two cards, I can call with the top 50% of my hands. A8 is well within that range. But, again, I think he willbe somewhat selective. Let's give him a range of "22+,A2+,K2+,Q7+"

SNG PT says: EV Fold $33.25 , EV Call = $38.00

I can call with the top 18% of my hands, which are "44+,A7o+,A2s+,KJo+,KTs+". So looks like A8o is correct. And I think this range is a little tight for him. I'm sure he pushes JT, T9s, and such hands.

Hustlr Nov 03, 2006 7:09pm

Hand 2 - raise with JJ

Ok, still 7 players and it's 100/200. I have 10 BBs with JJ in UTG+1. Sometimes I push, sometimes I standard raise. I just mix it up.

The main reason I stand raise is because I want a reraise. I do not want to open push and make the hands that might reraise me all in to fold. If someone has QQ+, they are going to call my push anyway, so that doesnt matter. I want hands like A8, that will probably fold to an open push from EP, to think they can reraise me all in with some fold equity.

Depending on your opponents, it's sometimes better to just shove it in. Raising 600 of my 2k stack should usually be a little obvious that I'm not going anywhere if shoved on. But in this case, it works perfectly.

We dont need to run SNG PT to see if Peckerhead2 can call an all in with A8. Given my range of hands that I'm pushing in this position, A8 is a fold. So a 3x raise got him to make a big mistake and I grabbed alot of chips that I would have otherwise missed had I open pushed.

Hustlr Nov 03, 2006 7:19pm

Hand 3 - 88 UTG

The very next hand I have 88 UTG. I have 4360 chips at 100/200. Not sure how I like raising 88 here, but with my stack, I decided to go for it. If I didnt have this large of a stack, I would fold it unless I was short enough to push it.

But anyway, I raise to 600 with 88. Marktb pushes all in for 1705 which is 1105 more to me. With 2605 in the pot, I call. I'm dont mind seeing AK here at all, since I was getting more than enough odds on my money to call for a coinflip. I didnt raise UTG without the intention of calling an all in from anyone at the table except for Takeru52 who had 2480 chips.

Hustlr Nov 03, 2006 8:07pm

Hand 4 - 55 on BB

I have 55 in the BB and the UTG player pushes for 1755 at 100/200 blinds. We have to give an UTG pusher at least some respect here. If it was the SB pushing on me, it would be different. But I think a fair range for UTG is "44+, AT+, KQ+". Can I call here with 55?

SNG PT says: EV Fold = $171.72, EV Call = $168.81

So it's close, but a fold. And I'd rather lean towards folding in this spot. I do not want to send chips to my left and double up a short player. If I'm not sure about calling in these situations, I just fold. I can extract chips by pressuring the short stacks to my left in future hands.

Frogboy4L Nov 03, 2006 8:37pm

Quote:

According to SNG PT, if I think he is pushing any two cards, I can call with the top 50% of my hands... I can call with the top 18% of my hands...
How did you determine these numbers?

Hustlr Nov 03, 2006 8:48pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by Frogboy4L (Post 364053)
How did you determine these numbers?

SNG PT gives you a range of hands that you can call with vs the pushing range that you assign your opponent. So the 50% and 18% are just what the program says are acceptable to call with.

Frogboy4L Nov 03, 2006 8:52pm

Hand one: Call, looks like a steal, you're short and probably ahead. Folding seems akin to strapping steaks all over your body and wandering through a wolfpack.

Hand two: I like your reasoning, although I'm suspicious of shortstacks who raise 3x and only have 7x back. It smells trappish to me.

Hand three: The raise commits everyone but Takeru, so if they call all the money is going in eventually. I like raising a lot more than limping UTG, and I wouldn't fold 88 UTG in 7-max.

Hand four: Pretty easy fold; I'd rather just get aggressive on his blinds

Hand five: Depends on his PAHUD numbers. I bet you've been stealing very aggressively the whole way, and I think his range is more like 66+, A8+, KT+, QJ. Even if you have an odd ace on one of his paint hands, both his cards are probably live and he's roughly 40-60 with some dead money, and if I were him, I would put you on about 87+. I might make a 2.5x raise for a psuedo-trap if I thought he was that observant, but I think I just give him a walk here.

Edit: I'm also at the library right now and don't have PokerStove, so take that fwiw.

Hustlr Nov 03, 2006 8:56pm

Hand 5 - Pushing 94s in the SB

Ok here we go.... this one is borderline I think. Sometimes I get a little carried away. I have 6065 chips at 100/200 with 94s in the SB. The BB has 1855 after posting. It's folded to me and it's the common situation of do I push or fold? Doing something like 3x raising to steal the blinds is dumb, since I'll be committed to call the all in if the BB pushes. So I might as well shove all in. Remember, we might make a small raise with a monster hand that we want action with, but not with 94s. We want a fold.

Calling range for the BB? Ehhh.... we can go with the traditional range of "66+,ATs+,AJo+" and see what happens.

SNG PT says: EV Fold = $170.10 , EV Push = $173.03

The cutoff for pushing in situations like this is usually 10 BBs. If myself or my opponent has more than 10 BBs, I like to look for other options. If either one of us is short, I get very aggressive in blind on blind hands. And this is why. If that range is correct, the BB is going to fold to my push about 92% of the time. So a vast majority of the time I will pick up the 300 chips here.

I dont mind pushing here if I think the BB is a tight player. That math is just obvious, and that's not using and ICM calculations. It's simply based on the % of the time he will call. The looser the BB, the more selective I would be here.

Hustlr Nov 03, 2006 9:05pm

Hand 6 - A9s with all in small stack

SB with no chips is forced all in on the BB. Cutoff +1 calls and I decided to just call with A9d. There are many situations with different stack sizes that would dictate a push here. But I have 20 BBs, so no need to get crazy. And I just got caught stealing with 94 last hand. I took the more conservative approach and just called.

I hit my Ace and bet out. I'm not checking down and letting everyone draw for free just because we have a player all in here. I most likely have the best hand, no reason not to protect it.

Fairly uninteresting hand.

Hustlr Nov 03, 2006 9:28pm

Hand 7

Booo HH! Oh well... I changed my mind and I'm not going to PXF every single blind steal. :cool:

Seat 1: Anbessa9 (3210 in chips)
Seat 6: Takeru53 (3280 in chips)
Seat 8: BB John (1435 in chips)
Seat 9: Hustlr (5575 in chips)
Anbessa9: posts the ante 25
Takeru53: posts the ante 25
BB John: posts the ante 25
Hustlr: posts the ante 25
Anbessa9: posts small blind 200
Takeru53: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hustlr [2d 8s]
BB John: folds
Hustlr: raises 5150 to 5550 and is all-in
Anbessa9: folds
Takeru53: folds
Hustlr collected 1100 from pot
Hustlr: doesn't show hand

I dont have to analyze this hand with SNG PT to know that I need to push here. It's the bubble. It's 200/400 blinds. The 2nd and 3rd place stacks are in the blinds and the small stack with 1400 chips folded. Also, I cant be knocked out and everyone else can. Standard turbo sng push IMO.

We'll analyze it anyway.

Let's look at it from the view of the blinds. What exactly can they call with? Running SNG PT for this situation, the ICM conclusion is they cannot call without 88+. Unless they catch a big hand, they simply cant call. Whether they make a mistake and call with ATs, I dont know. All I know is that they should have very tight calling ranges, and most players do here on the bubble with one player on the short stack.

So if they cant call with anything less than the top 3% of the hands, that means I can push with any two cards! Weee! There's 700 in the pot, nothing to laugh at. Just giving that up to one of them would be a mistake.

Let's plan for the worst and say they will call with "88+, AK" I'll get a call here less than 5% of the time.

SNG PT says:
EV Fold = $167.84 , EV Push = $173.10

EDIT: The range of 88+ given to the players here is only based on the fact that I'm pushing any two cards. If they dont know that I'm pushing here regardless of my hand, their range is probably tighter.


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