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-   -   Paying off at the river (http://www.pokertips.org/forums/showthread.php?t=74260)

Wino Whines Apr 21, 2010 6:49pm

Paying off at the river
 
With Limit, it seems as though you are always getting the odds to pay someone off when HU at the river (and getting paid off as well) even when you you are fairly certain you are beat.

Most of these time you are holding top or middle pair to a draw board and pretty certain when villain hits and/or has you out kicked. Are those rare occasions when your hand holds up enough to almost always make the call on the river?

Is it just the nature of Limit that you most often have to pay people off here?

killcrazy Apr 21, 2010 7:44pm

as with everything, you have to think about his range, how much of it you can beat, and what the pot is laying you.

you're going to make a lot of math calls on the river where you have a very low win percentage but are being paid so much that the call is correct. sometimes it isn't, when it isn't fold. there isn't a rule of thumb here, you have to make a decision.

Kc

Ozone Apr 21, 2010 8:04pm

You're pretty much spot-on, Wino. A leak a lot of beginning limit hold'em players have is not realizing they are getting fantastic pot odds to call on the river. If the pot is $10 and there's a $1 bet on the river, you only need to think you've got about a 10% chance to win the pot for this to be a correct call (10% > $1/$11). Welcome to limit hold'em. You won't fold a whole lot on the river which is why it's important to make a good decision on the turn because calling a turn bet is really like calling two big bets most of the time.

Boomer2k6 Apr 21, 2010 8:46pm

This is where reads on your opponent come in and how you've structured the hand before the river.

There are some players I've played against where you'd have to get a pair out of my hands with a pack of wolves but against others I'd fold TPTK on the river with confidence to a river raise.

One thing being that humans naturally are terrible at guesstimating statistical probabilities like whether something will happen 1 in 8 times or 1 in 15 becasue it's hard to visualise. It gets easier with experience and work but it's certainly not easy to start off.

Wino Whines Apr 23, 2010 1:25am

Yeah, the nature of Limit hold'em unfortunately.

One thing that I have done that saves me some $$ is to lead or raise/ck raise early on the flop where it is much cheaper to flush out the read for later streets because so many float overs too long and will usually 3-bet you with the goods.

And, of course when in pos. and you think you might be beat and/or know your opponent is betting, check call the river no mater what.

Limit is definitely about not missing bets and saving bets.

BamaAlum97 Feb 17, 2011 5:27pm

If you have middle pair on a draw heavy board that is getting a lot of action, you are very likely beat. Your pot equity has to be quite small in this situation and would require a very large pot to make calling correct.

4Kings Mar 28, 2011 12:31am

Quote:

Originally Posted by BamaAlum97 (Post 950655)
If you have middle pair on a draw heavy board that is getting a lot of action, you are very likely beat. Your pot equity has to be quite small in this situation and would require a very large pot to make calling correct.

if your pot odds say you can call, then you should call


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