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-   -   QJT9ds allin pf 160bb deep??? (http://www.pokertips.org/forums/showthread.php?t=77787)

TWLLM Feb 01, 2011 5:33am

QJT9ds allin pf 160bb deep???
 
Full Tilt Poker Game #27795489635: Table Vroom (6 max) - $0.50/$1 - Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 01:19:23 ET - 2011/02/01
Seat 1: Mrreadchips ($164.65)
Seat 2: AmSoGood ($263.20)
Seat 3: SuperStation ($211.25)
Seat 4: FLICK ME ($118.15)
Seat 5: quadthrees05 ($164.35)
Seat 6: redrob55 ($341)
Mrreadchips posts the small blind of $0.50
AmSoGood posts the big blind of $1
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Mrreadchips [Jc Qd Td 9c]
SuperStation folds
FLICK ME has 8 seconds left to act
FLICK ME raises to $3.50
quadthrees05 calls $3.50
redrob55 raises to $15.50
Mrreadchips calls $15
AmSoGood has 15 seconds left to act
AmSoGood raises to $69
FLICK ME raises to $118.15, and is all in
quadthrees05 folds
redrob55 raises to $341, and is all in
Mrreadchips has 15 seconds left to act

????

Thoughts?

joeyjoejoejr Feb 01, 2011 12:21pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by TWLLM (Post 948087)
Full Tilt Poker Game #27795489635: Table Vroom (6 max) - $0.50/$1 - Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 01:19:23 ET - 2011/02/01
Seat 1: Mrreadchips ($164.65)
Seat 2: AmSoGood ($263.20)
Seat 3: SuperStation ($211.25)
Seat 4: FLICK ME ($118.15)
Seat 5: quadthrees05 ($164.35)
Seat 6: redrob55 ($341)
Mrreadchips posts the small blind of $0.50
AmSoGood posts the big blind of $1
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Mrreadchips [Jc Qd Td 9c]
SuperStation folds
FLICK ME has 8 seconds left to act
FLICK ME raises to $3.50
quadthrees05 calls $3.50
redrob55 raises to $15.50
Mrreadchips calls $15
AmSoGood has 15 seconds left to act
AmSoGood raises to $69
FLICK ME raises to $118.15, and is all in
quadthrees05 folds
redrob55 raises to $341, and is all in
Mrreadchips has 15 seconds left to act

????

Thoughts?

Stick in it....gambling is fun.

There are probably two AAxx hands getting it in which will actually be behind unless they are very premium. Your almost always going to have more than 25% equity 4 ways.

Against a lot of people I cold 4 bet that hand.

darryl Feb 01, 2011 12:43pm

Yeah,
Get it in there, unless you play extra small ball like me. Although you do run bad, so maybe the extra variance isn't good for you.

Worst case is people have your suits beat and only one person has AA.

-d

SwoopAE Feb 01, 2011 9:28pm

Snap it off, you should have enough equity 4 way there especially if two of them have AAxx

joeyjoejoejr Feb 01, 2011 11:18pm

About worst possible case:

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
qd js ts 9d 17.10%
Ad*dAs*s 33.56%
AA** 31.00%
kqjt 18.34%

Realistic case:

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
qd js ts 9d 30.87%
AA** 22.97%
AA** 22.96%
20% 23.21%

Or

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
qd js ts 9d 26.12%
AA** 34.97%
10% 19.78%
20% 19.13%

TWLLM Feb 02, 2011 5:44pm

Ok, I'm glad to see I wasn't crazy. I made the call. I lost, but given that I haven't won a big preflop all-in in PLO in 2011, I wasn't really surprized by that, nor phased by it. I just figured the hand was worth discussing because it wasn't immediate to me what the right play was.

In deciding to call, I made two key assumptions: (1) there would be two aaxx hands, and (2) both my suits would be dead (or, at the very least, severely impaired).

Assuming that most of my other cards were still live, this would give me about 30% equity, give or take a bit depending on what the kickers to the aaxx hands were. I obviously didn't have time to run it through a simulator as Joey did, but that was my thinking at the time.


Turns out both of my assumptions were correct.



Here is the rest of the hand history:

Mrreadchips calls $149.15, and is all in
AmSoGood calls $194.20, and is all in
redrob55 shows [Ac Qc 5h As]
Mrreadchips shows [Jc Qd Td 9c]
AmSoGood shows [Ah 6d Ad Kd]
FLICK ME shows [7s 5c 6c 8c]
Uncalled bet of $77.80 returned to redrob55
*** FLOP *** [3h Js 3s]
*** TURN *** [3h Js 3s] [2h]
*** RIVER *** [3h Js 3s 2h] [4h]
redrob55 shows a straight, Five high
AmSoGood shows two pair, Aces and Threes
redrob55 wins side pot #2 ($197.10) with a straight, Five high
Mrreadchips shows two pair, Jacks and Threes
redrob55 wins side pot #1 ($139.50) with a straight, Five high
FLICK ME shows a straight, Six high
FLICK ME wins the main pot ($473.10) with a straight, Six high
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $812.70 Main pot $476.10. Side pot 1 $139.50. Side pot 2 $197.10. | Rake $3
Board: [3h Js 3s 2h 4h]
Seat 1: Mrreadchips (small blind) showed [Jc Qd Td 9c] and lost with two pair, Jacks and Threes
Seat 2: AmSoGood (big blind) showed [Ah 6d Ad Kd] and lost with two pair, Aces and Threes
Seat 3: SuperStation didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: FLICK ME showed [7s 5c 6c 8c] and won ($473.10) with a straight, Six high
Seat 5: quadthrees05 folded before the Flop
Seat 6: redrob55 (button) showed [Ac Qc 5h As] and won ($336.60) with a straight, Five high



I ran it through twodimes and I was actually a pretty decent plurality, winning over 1 in 3.

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ac Qc 5h 21817 5.79 296285 78.59 58890 15.62 0.136
Jc 9c Qd Td 129053 34.23 247939 65.77 0 0.00 0.342
Ad Kd 6d Ah 45749 12.14 272353 72.24 58890 15.62 0.199
7s 8c 6c 5c 121483 32.22 255509 67.78 0 0.00 0.322


And, in true TW fashion, I finished 4/4 on the hand. :P


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