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-   -   Last 5 days graph (http://www.pokertips.org/forums/showthread.php?t=77914)

TWLLM Feb 14, 2011 3:36am

Last 5 days graph
 
Special for Swoop. I'll see if I can recover hands back to the start of January. This is all PLO cash. According to this graph (which I think is an EXTREME underestimate -- see below) I'm running about $1,300 below EV over the past 5 days at 100plo.


http://cache.hostmyjpg.com/a693078f6...rreadchips.jpg



My apologies about the size.



FWIW, I don't put much trust in the graph. I'm pretty sure I've been much more unlucky that this. There's an interesting discussion on duecescracked by KasinoKrime about using EV graphs in PLO in particular.

For instance, in a lot of the hands I've been getting fucked over on, the EV graph will appear to show a losing play where it's actually a standard winning play. For instance, shoving half your stack with aaxx into kkxx, is a +EV play globally. But if your opponent flops the K, then it'll show up as a -EV play because the computer does not recognize that the kkxx will pay off any flop except basically axx, which means, really, you're playing for stacks at the preflop odds.


Another problem with the EV graphs is that it doesn't take into account coolers (of which I've posted quite a few over the last days), nor can it account for the fact that I often end up folding after an opponent makes an obvious suckout in a big pot. In PLO these hands are very rarely bluffs, but since there's no showdown, there's no representation on the EV graph.


But in any event, this is a best case scenario for my EV gap (i.e. the smallest gap it could be), and I'm like $1,300 below EV for the last 5 days. Barf.

SwoopAE Feb 14, 2011 5:28am

http://2bh.org/scratch/uploads/thu.bmp

Maybe you should play on thursdays more, because according to sharkscope, over my last few thousand tourneys at least, that's when the poker gods let you run good. Your problem was clearly that one of the last five days was a saturday, and everyone runs bad on saturdays, it's a universal fact.

killcrazy Feb 14, 2011 5:31am

"Sorry TWLLM is a moderator/admin and you are not allowed to ignore him or her."

Kc

SwoopAE Feb 14, 2011 5:35am

Any theories on why Thusdays are luckier for me than Saturdays KC? I feel like the universe is rigged against me on saturdays sometime, but on thursdays nothing can go wrong!

TWLLM Feb 14, 2011 5:35am

Quote:

Originally Posted by killcrazy (Post 950053)
"Sorry TWLLM is a moderator/admin and you are not allowed to ignore him or her."

Kc

While this is unfortunate for you, there's a simple solution - stop following me around and trolling me.

SwoopAE Feb 14, 2011 8:06am

Gross but a 13bi downswing below EV is pretty standard for PLO. Grind it out :)

FWIW you should NOT be playing PLO rush 100 over PLO MTTs. I played ~100k hands of PLO rush or something and was winning at like 1-2bb/100 if that. In PLO MTTs, my ROI is like +102% or something. I maintain thats sustainable. My one student's PLO ROI is +178% or something (he can maintain +80 or so at his current skill level imo)

You could easily crush the plo 30r and 75 freeze at 1730/1645 or at lower stakes the 10r at 1430. Free money. Also, PLO MTTs suit nits like yourself.

What are you waiting for, go make some money!

Also if you're interested in having me ghost/teamviewer one of your sessions let me know - i'm not the best PLO player in the world or anything but I have beaten the stakes you're playing over an okayish sample and it can't hurt having one of your peers examine your game for leaks (obviously joey would be better but in his absence i'm the next best you're going to do for free). It's far easier to do so in real time and discuss over skype or whatever if we disagree than just posting HHs. You helped me heaps with my PLO game when I sucked (lol ftops) and i'd like to repay the favour now that I don't suck at PLO anymore if you want to take me up on it PM me.

SwoopAE Feb 14, 2011 8:11am

http://officialpokerrankings.com/ful...4F2CB.html?t=2

Average field size 216, 44 abi 19% cash rate +100% roi over a sample of ~400 tourneys. Same with if you can find live PLO tourneys - i've final tabled 3 live PLO tourneys and got an 18th at the wsop out of maybe 12-13 entered, you should be playing them any chance you get if there are any live events near you featuring PLO

Also why aren't you playing PLO MTTs on the side online while you grind? It's a free 50 bucks plus equity a day for 2 or 3 mtts, i'm amazed that you don't since despite all of your runbad, your PLO game is quite good compared to those players

BubbleBoy Feb 14, 2011 8:51am

wow I have never seen anything even close to this unlucky of run

hope you recover quickly

killcrazy Feb 14, 2011 1:23pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by SwoopAE (Post 950055)
Any theories on why Thusdays are luckier for me than Saturdays KC? I feel like the universe is rigged against me on saturdays sometime, but on thursdays nothing can go wrong!

no, but the best course of action would be to convert to judaism, then you won't have to play on saturdays.

Kc

TWLLM Feb 14, 2011 2:25pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by SwoopAE (Post 950065)
Also if you're interested in having me ghost/teamviewer one of your sessions let me know - i'm not the best PLO player in the world or anything but I have beaten the stakes you're playing over an okayish sample and it can't hurt having one of your peers examine your game for leaks (obviously joey would be better but in his absence i'm the next best you're going to do for free). It's far easier to do so in real time and discuss over skype or whatever if we disagree than just posting HHs. You helped me heaps with my PLO game when I sucked (lol ftops) and i'd like to repay the favour now that I don't suck at PLO anymore if you want to take me up on it PM me.

I might take you up on that at some point.


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