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-   -   Plo mtt (http://www.pokertips.org/forums/showthread.php?t=78684)

SwoopAE Jul 19, 2011 2:10am

Plo mtt
 
Villain is a competent tag

His entire range seems to consist of Jxxx on the turn

Can I ever call river here or not against an ABC player? Even though I had the best hand on the turn and rivered the second nuts, he has quads 100% of the time here right if he's a tight, competent player?

PokerStars Game #64749800237: Tournament #414935255, $20+$2 USD Omaha Pot Limit - Level VII (125/250) - 2011/07/19 12:06:08 AEST [2011/07/18 22:06:08 ET]
Table '414935255 5' 6-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: 0409479 (13081 in chips)
Seat 2: diskeleven (9110 in chips)
Seat 3: Firehoppir (21950 in chips)
Seat 4: Talerric (29980 in chips)
Seat 5: snaproyzi (21757 in chips)
snaproyzi: posts small blind 125
0409479: posts big blind 250
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Talerric [6d Ah Ac 6h]
diskeleven: folds
Firehoppir: raises 250 to 500
Talerric: calls 500
snaproyzi: folds
0409479: calls 250
*** FLOP *** [5c Jh Js]
0409479: checks
Firehoppir: checks
Talerric: bets 900
0409479: folds
Firehoppir: calls 900
*** TURN *** [5c Jh Js] [6s]
Firehoppir: checks
Talerric: bets 3000
Firehoppir: calls 3000
*** RIVER *** [5c Jh Js 6s] [Jd]
Firehoppir: bets 4250
Talerric said, "oh come on wtf"
Talerric said, "why do you have to have quads"
Talerric said, "worst. hand. ever."
Talerric: folds
Uncalled bet (4250) returned to Firehoppir
Firehoppir collected 9425 from pot
Firehoppir: doesn't show hand
snaproyzi said, "phil helmuth everyone"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 9425 | Rake 0
Board [5c Jh Js 6s Jd]
Seat 1: 0409479 (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 2: diskeleven folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Firehoppir collected (9425)
Seat 4: Talerric (button) folded on the River
Seat 5: snaproyzi (small blind) folded before Flop

SwoopAE Jul 19, 2011 2:11am

Also in before '3bet pre' because that turns my hand face-up and villain flats with 100% of his range and is pretty competent

3b pre is fine obviously but with my also tight wrt 3betting image he takes it to mean aces, and since I have aces, i'm only 3betting a wrap in that spot that deep

SwoopAE Jul 19, 2011 3:33am

Variance: just finished third in the tournament this hand is from and later busted villain in 5th?

killcrazy Jul 19, 2011 4:34am

this hand really just raises more questions than anything...the first question is what does he put you on? do you donk the flop with a jack? what's your table image?

in a vacuum, a competent tag should bluff the river some percentage of the time, but the question then becomes, what does he get to the river with that he can bluff? basically just 55. does 55 raise the flop? or the turn?

again in a vacuum, he might also be valuebetting KK or QQ, but do those hands get to the river? and what do they hope to get called by? are you going to go to war with 99 on that flop? no.

your turn bet is interesting. it is big. this polarises your range substantially imo, you either have very strong hand or very weak hand...both of which are true, this is a way ahead/way behind spot for you. still, it would take such balls to float you out of position for 15% of his stack on a dry JJ board that he should seek urgent medical attention for his massive testicular tumor.

55XX does kinda fit. on the flop he wants to be cautious to see if a big card comes off that can realistically fill JXXX. then on the turn he plans to checkraise, but when you bet so big he thinks maybe there is better value in walking the dog if you value your hand so much. plus the possibility that you are bluffing, he'd rather keep you bluffing. on the river his hand is bust, but the chances of you having a jack are slightly more than halved. still you can have a shitty pair that trumps his 55, so he turns his hand into a bluff, realising that you have a hard time calling with anything except the nuts.

here's the next question. if he has the case jack, would he bet the river? working back to the flop knowing that you can't have a jack, what are you donking with? AA (maybe, he would anticipate a pf3b) KK QQ 55 and air. that's your entire range. you are going to bet these hands on the river far more often than you are going to call with them. you thought your hand was strong on the turn, with the exception of 55 which is bust, your hand gets stronger on the river.

on the whole, i doubt he thought this deep. i think what happened was on the flop he has a weak jack and check-calls. on the turn he still has a weak jack, but you probably have a jack or a boat too, he has 10 outs and decent implied odds if he hits. on the river he makes the nuts. omfg nuts. # we gonna light this up like it's dy-no-mite *bet*. i think this line best describes reality.

Kc

SwoopAE Jul 19, 2011 4:46am

So do you fold river or pay him?

I feel like he definitely has the nuts well over half the time, question is, is it often enough that we can fold here? I feel like it could easily be over 90% of the time that he has a jack making a fold okay. At the time, I was certain of it.

killcrazy Jul 19, 2011 5:06am

Quote:

Originally Posted by SwoopAE (Post 971452)
So do you fold river or pay him?

depends on my read. folding would be the default, the chip position also supports this.

Kc

acehole_76 Jul 19, 2011 7:41pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by SwoopAE (Post 971444)
snaproyzi said, "phil helmuth everyone"


:P

jimmytrick Jul 20, 2011 4:26pm

3bet pre.

TWLLM Jul 20, 2011 6:47pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by SwoopAE (Post 971444)
Villain is a competent tag

My first thought on seeing this hand was whether a 'competent TAG' would ever check Jxxx on the flop here. That seems to be more the line that a sandbagger or someone with fancyplay syndrome would take. The board is dry and he's got 2 callers, if he has Jxxx he's at worst a flip against 55xx or another Jxxx (assuming no domination). Besides which, a competent player would realize he's potentially screwing himself over by giving free cards (unless he had JJxx, but we know that isn't the case).


That said, a lot of players will check/flat as a sandbag with Jxxx or J5xx on that board, but I wouldn't normally expect competent players to do that into 2 callers.


I would have thought given how he played the flop, 55 was more likely than Jxxx because 55 actually might have good reason to check the flop (for pot control). Again, this assumes he's competent. Many bad players would play Jxxx here slower than they would play 55xx, but you think he's decent. That said, I don't know what counts as decent for a $22 plo donkament.


By the turn I'm beginning to suspect he has Jxxx, but I still don't think it's as clear as your chat suggests. He could have called the flop with an overpair and now feel obligated to call again because he can't figure out if you have the J or not. This is especially true if he thinks you're capable of moves.


And by the river, I don't think you can fold given the pot size and how the hand played out. Kc is right that he might not always donk the river with quads. To me this is a crying call. Most of the time he has it, but I wouldn't be overly shocked to see something like KKxx either given the weird way the hand ran out.






*cue Kc flame attack*


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