PokerTips.org Forums

PokerTips.org Forums (http://www.pokertips.org/forums/index.php)
-   Omaha Ring Games (http://www.pokertips.org/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=85)
-   -   Ugly river spot PLO (http://www.pokertips.org/forums/showthread.php?t=79106)

joeyjoejoejr Oct 30, 2011 9:33am

Ugly river spot PLO
 
Live private game
Villian is dealer who sat down as game was getting short. Havent played with him before.

blinds 5/5/10

Stack sizes 9k

Folded to me on BTN

I raise :6s :6h :7h :Ts to $40

2 callers from Blinds

Flop :8s :9h :2c (pot=$120)

ck, ck, I bet $100
Fold
BB raise to $420
I call

Turn :8s :9h :2c :6d (pot $960)
BB bets $800
I raise to $3100
BB calls

River :8s :9h :2c :6d :7s (pot $7160)

BB bets $4000

Ozone Oct 31, 2011 5:03am

Ugh puke such a tilting river card especially since you have a blocker on it.

You need 35.9% pot equity to be able to call.

Are we ever chopping here? Is he, in his right mind, ever making this bet with same hand and expecting to be called by worse? Never, right? He'd just check-call with your hand. So IMO it's either a stone-bluff or JT. Basically it's never something you chop with. Well, it's probably not never something you chop against. Let's say there's a 5% chance it's a chop, 65% chance he has JT, and 30% chance he's just on a total bluff.

No screw it... he has JT. There's no way this is a bluff. Just fold. He has like QJTx or something. I like a fold for sure. Bad river, you got unlucky.

DirtySanchez80 Oct 31, 2011 12:29pm

yeah pretty tuff.. 889T 99TJ 89TJ..
he'd shove 789T on the turn right? meh i fold

any comments on how long he thought about flop/ turn and how fast he called/donked ?

evandijk70 Oct 31, 2011 1:06pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ozone (Post 984188)
You need 35.9% pot equity to be able to call.

[Needle]

How you can mess up the math so horrendously as a professional poker player is beyond me xD

For a pot-sized bet (which is the maximum in Pot Limit Omaha), you need 33.3% pot equity to call. To call this bet you need 26.4% pot equity

[\Needle]

Not an omaha player, but I would probably pot the turn. It truly is a horrendous spot, and I agree with Ozone that he almost has to have JT.. If you disregard bluffs you need to call when you suspect that a little over half of his bets are straights to the ten. I'm thinking that is probably not a reasonable assumption, so I guess a fold is best.

evandijk70 Oct 31, 2011 1:12pm

Btw I do feel that a straight to the ten is more likely than a weird bluff, because of the sizing on the river.

killcrazy Oct 31, 2011 2:44pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ozone (Post 984188)
Are we ever chopping here?

yes. T99X T88X

Quote:

Is he, in his right mind, ever making this bet with same hand and expecting to be called by worse? Never, right? He'd just check-call with your hand.
no but he might be able to fold out a ten. also, blocker bet.

joey's hand is close to face up on the turn.

hey! there's a horse running in this race called KC! well, kaysee but close enough, if i'd caught that I'd have backed him instead of the fucker that won...so all things considered that worked out quite well.

Quote:

No screw it... he has JT. There's no way this is a bluff. Just fold. He has like QJTx or something. I like a fold for sure. Bad river, you got unlucky.
i think you're forgetting that this is a joey hand, which means he called because of a crucial piece of information we won't get until he reveals the results, and villain showed AKT4.

a set just about gets past the turn with a little optimism, so there are hands in his range that would be bluffing the scare card. it's close enough to be a read decision for me.

Kc

killcrazy Oct 31, 2011 2:46pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by joeyjoejoejr (Post 984078)
Villian is dealer who sat down as game was getting short. Havent played with him before.

is there a reason you're telling us he's dealing the hand? are you concerned about game integrity here?

Kc

Ozone Oct 31, 2011 5:06pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by evandijk70 (Post 984195)
Quote:

Originally Posted by Ozone (Post 984188)
You need 35.9% pot equity to be able to call.

[Needle]

How you can mess up the math so horrendously as a professional poker player is beyond me xD

For a pot-sized bet (which is the maximum in Pot Limit Omaha), you need 33.3% pot equity to call. To call this bet you need 26.4% pot equity

[\Needle]

You're right. I took 4000/11160, not 4000/15160. IT WAS LATE AND I WAS TIRED OKAY!!

joeyjoejoejr Oct 31, 2011 8:30pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by DirtySanchez80 (Post 984193)
any comments on how long he thought about flop/ turn and how fast he called/donked ?

He pretty much snapped called the turn, and he turbo bet the river

Quote:

Originally Posted by killcrazy (Post 984199)
is there a reason you're telling us he's dealing the hand? are you concerned about game integrity here?

Kc

He wasnt actually dealing the hand, he was just dealing earlier in the night.
This place had 4 dealers rotating 2 tables. This was end of night but he had only been sitting down for one orbit.
I wasnt concerned about game integrity

I folded and he didnt show.

SwoopAE Nov 04, 2011 8:42am

I typed out a response then realised it sucked.

I try to soulread villain one way or the other. In a vacuum he has JT unless he's turning a set into a bluff or has the same hand I guess? Idk, feels kinda gross.


All times are GMT. The time now is 6:24pm.

vBulletin 3.7.4 Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.