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-   -   flop bottom set UTG (http://www.pokertips.org/forums/showthread.php?t=79329)

darryl Feb 12, 2012 7:37pm

flop bottom set UTG
 
This was a live $2-5 game. I was under the gun, villain was late position.
I was at the table about 3 hours and this was my second pocket pair. I had been pretty card dead most of the session. Let's say for this hand we are both sitting on $600 each.

I'm dealt 33, I raise to $15. I could have raised more, but was set mining and just wanted to juice the pot. I get 5 callers for $75 in the pot.
Flop comes Q83 giving me a set of 3's.

I lead out for $45 folds to the villain who calls. For about $165 in the pot.
Turn is a rag to make a 2 flush board. I bet $100 villain calls. Now $365 in the pot or so and we both have $460 left or so behind.
Villain is pretty loose, loves to sense weakness and exploit.
River is J making a straight and a flush possible on the board (although if villain was drawing, it would be a gutshot or runner runner for the flush).

So my turn to act, do I 3 barrel, if so how much, if he raises, then what? Do I let him bet knowing he would probably sense weakness and probably throw out a river bet then I call a reasonable bet? My read on him was that he had more than a bluff, probably more than a pair. Am I just losing value by checking here, or is it a situation where I'm probably only getting called by a better hand? Does that make me nitty, etc.?

-d

Ozone Feb 12, 2012 8:06pm

Check-call seems nice against a villain prone to bluffing. Against someone more straight-forward, I like a bet-fold more.

killcrazy Feb 12, 2012 10:07pm

shove.

Kc

darryl Feb 13, 2012 4:34am

Quote:

Originally Posted by killcrazy (Post 993564)
shove.

Kc

Would you care to explain your reasoning?

-d

joeyjoejoejr Feb 13, 2012 4:44am

I bet 65$ on flop

160$ on turn

and all in river.

For the most part any live 2/5 player with a queen is going to call the flop regardless of your sizing so I would bet almost pot on flop.

Is it unlilkely that you will play enough with villain live that he will pick up that you only cbet large multiway with the nuts. If you play with him all the time ie reg vs reg online your sizing is fine. But live you probably will not play enough hands with him to notice or he wont be observant enough to notice your cbet sizing in multiway pots anyways

killcrazy Feb 13, 2012 5:30am

Quote:

Originally Posted by darryl (Post 993612)
Quote:

Originally Posted by killcrazy (Post 993564)
shove.

Kc

Would you care to explain your reasoning?

-d

in no particular order:

if you shove, it can look like an optimistic hey-i-can-bluff-that-card bluff.

if he has a queen, he should check behind.

he doesn't have a flush or a straight very often. most of his range is QX.

and you aren't checkfolding here, so the question is how do you get as much of his range putting money in as possible, and you do that by shoving. ime.

also yes, bet bigger, an extra $10 on the flop makes your natural turn bet $15 bigger which makes your natural river bet $50 bigger. i'd be surprised if 45 into 75 wasn't considered a small bet in the game.

Kc

joeyjoejoejr Feb 13, 2012 6:08am

By the way.... the suits of the cards matter


If it came :Qc :8h :3s :4c :jc

or

:Qh :8c :3s :4c :Jc

I would be much more worried about a backdoor flush in the second run out than the first. (though I probably still just jam either way)

spalding25 Feb 13, 2012 12:39pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by darryl (Post 993549)
Now $365 in the pot or so and we both have $460 left or so behind.

this is where you went wrong. you lose more on average sizing your bets like this than whatever the difference between c/c and shove is going to be. you look strong cbetting in a 6 way pot anyway. noone is peeling 99 on the flop

Ozone Feb 13, 2012 7:11pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by joeyjoejoejr (Post 993615)
By the way.... the suits of the cards matter


If it came :Qc :8h :3s :4c :jc

or

:Qh :8c :3s :4c :Jc

I would be much more worried about a backdoor flush in the second run out than the first. (though I probably still just jam either way)

Logic being that he could have something like QcTc?

killcrazy Feb 13, 2012 7:27pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ozone (Post 993681)
Quote:

Originally Posted by joeyjoejoejr (Post 993615)
By the way.... the suits of the cards matter


If it came :Qc :8h :3s :4c :jc

or

:Qh :8c :3s :4c :Jc

I would be much more worried about a backdoor flush in the second run out than the first. (though I probably still just jam either way)

Logic being that he could have something like QcTc?

what else would it be? :)

but i assumed that darryl would have recognised this and mentioned it, so paid it no mind. QXc is a pretty small fraction of QXs in any case.

Kc


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