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Old Sep 18, 2012, 8:39pm   #4
killcrazy
Apex Predator
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Edinburgh, UK
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yeah this is pretty awful.

he obviously has a bunch of kings, probably down to about KT and K8s, plus a few 5s, all of which you're worse than 10/1 dog against. maybe the odd TT or 99 if he gets slap happy, same situation. even if he is sticking it in with something like JT, you're only a ~3/1 favourite...

all told his value range probably has something like 65 combinations of cards in it against which you have about 8.4% equity. you need like 31% equity to call taking the rake into account. you have 73.2% equity against the fluff, so;

(65*0.084) + 0.732x = 31

5.46 + 0.732x = 31

0.732x = 25.54

x = 35

which is convenient because 35+65 = 100, so he has to be betting here with bollocks a full 35% of the time for you to be able to call.

i think it's reasonable to assume that 35% of his range isn't garbage given the number of players he'd have to get through.

Kc
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