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Old Jan 04, 2013, 4:53pm   #7
GoldfishUltraDeluxe
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Quote:
Originally Posted by killcrazy View Post
well, what exactly did you put your opponents on?

this is one of those odd spots where you have two ways to win and they both suck. you only have an 8 out straight draw, and you're going to chop when that draw lands a significant percentage of the time. you have two pair but they're extremely vulnerable. JXXX likely has at least 2 and often 3 overs.

your raise is a bit meh, but when your man cold 3bets over the top of you at least half your hand is busted. he either has a set or a better draw 100% of the time. SB is not airballing here, he bet 3/4 pot and was happy to play against a raiser and a reraiser. there isn't really room for him to be being a fish here, he either has draws, or he has >AJ.

you were in about as good a shape as you could possibly hope to be when the cards got turned over. you caught them both at the bottom of their range and you still only had what, 40% equity?

Kc
JXXX overs only include two reasonable overs (A&K) right? I admit that I don't take sixes into account and I don't consider runner-runner full houses.

I try to make a pokerstove estimate by isolating the features of the holdings into fewer categories:

9,118,859 games 12.661 secs 720,232 games/sec

Board: 5s Jd 8h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 16.897% 02.11% 14.79% 191988 1348785.50 { Ts9s }
Hand 1: 03.829% 03.75% 00.08% 342322 6866.00 { 7s3s }
Hand 2: 27.548% 00.00% 27.55% 0 2512061.50 { Jc5d }
Hand 3: 14.791% 00.00% 14.79% 0 1348785.50 { Tc9d }
Hand 4: 34.315% 06.77% 27.55% 617104 2512061.50 { Jh5h }
Hand 5: 02.620% 02.54% 00.08% 232019 6866.00 { 3d2s }


Hence, I had approximately 27+15 = 42% equity, so the "Blah blah blah KC is right" signature makes sense.

EDIT: I see the power of backdoor flush draws in Omaha. Lesson learnt.
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Last edited by GoldfishUltraDeluxe; Jan 04, 2013 at 4:57pm.
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