Thread: Nfl picks
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Old Sep 23, 2013, 11:58pm   #18
joeyjoejoejr
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Originally Posted by joeyjoejoejr View Post
I am tied 4-way for the weekly lead in my poll.
Just switched my Monday pick to Oakland to go for a scoop.
Tie is a push into the next week, last week was a push.
Going to be annoyed if one of the other three switch to Oakland.
Also going to be annoyed if I end up one win away from season long prizes come next year because of this.

I think I need about nine Denver turnovers.
Its actually an interesting gambling situation.

I believe the $ for a two week scoop is greater than 10x the ev I lose for missing one win in the season long pool. With 10-1 being about the odds for Oakland straight up I therefore should switch.

However it is reasonable to assume the others could come to the same conclusion.
I think the best strategy probably is pick Oakland and then tell everyone that you have locked it in and are turning off the internet for night.....
But this might be against my pool rules so I am switching back to Denver.
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