Thread: Ice Hockey
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Old Apr 14, 2015, 12:03am   #29
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Originally Posted by balthazarr View Post
I had a feeling that you might want to get some things off your chest
it doesn't help that i've been suppressing a lecture on probability every time i read penguins boards for the last week or so.

(toskala) to be fair, even though it's from farther away, because of the unpredictable bouncing I think that one is much harder to stop than a straight slapshot from centre ice.
he tries to glove it though. that's why it gets past him. which is surely suboptimal anyway. there's nobody within about 50 feet of the goal, just let it hit you and look for a pass.

also, "patrick roy statue of liberty".

yeah this trade doesn't make a ton of sense. I did some research and apparently they wanted more experience for the playoffs over long term quality which sounds like some bs to me. Then I found some rumors about him having some off-ice disciplinary issues which sounds like even more bs. Even if that was the truth, just trading him away seems like the worst option to deal with something like this...
if we'd floated him on the market at the draft we'd have got a much better return than ben lovejoy. someone's going to give you a first rounder for him.

experience is valuable, but experience doing what exactly? a #6 defenceman isn't bringing you veteran leadership, not unless he's an aging former top 4 player with 100+ playoff games and multiple cup runs to his name, rather than a career ahl guy who managed to get a run in the nhl because ray shero was in charge of a team and we had shit for defencemen that year even when we were healthy. and saying this, i can see the argument for having a guy like scuderi because of his experience, but he needs to be paired with a guy who can cover for his senior moments, not a younger less talented version of himself on a bad day...i can only assume that the people paid absurd salaries to make these decisions thought it was scuderi making despres look good, and not the other way round.

Originally Posted by killcrazy
the guys on my team you can name, they are awesome.
what about Kunitz? he gets some heat on the pens boards.
i hoped you couldnt name him. i forgot he went to the olympics that time because they needed someone to carry crosby's spare personality.

kunitz is showing his age. he's still good for ~40pts but the deterioration has been rapid. the main reason he's getting shit is that for most of the season he just hasn't looked like he wants to be there. i expect some level of interest in what's going on around him when he's being paid like $2500 per minute of ice time.

St. Louis - Minnesota

For some reason I am not very optimistic. They have more individual strenght and they really don't want to drop out in the first round again. I have to pray Dubnyk steals some games and hope their goaltending becomes an issue.

Prediction: St.Louis in 6.
it's st louis, disappointing playoff performances is kinda their thing.

i ran numbers on these using data from the regular season (which means nothing, i only mention this for reasons that will shortly become apparent) and came up with the following probabilities:

min: 0.49999
stl: 0.50001

and i'm inclined to agree. too close to call. i wish minnesota were at home so i could give them it in 7, but as it is, minnesota in 6.

Nashville - Chicago

I'd rather play Nashville in the second round than Chicago. Roman Josi is probably the best Swiss player in the NHL right now so I have to root for the Preds anyway. On the other hand I have a ton of respect for the Blackhawks. Their team has a lot of depth and experience. Also their coach looks always so bad-ass behind the bench.

Prediction: Chicago in 6.
hawks are the better team, but kane is broken. rinne is coming in pretty cold, but he's still pekka rinne. neither team is lighting any fires right now, but i think i agree with you here, hawks in 6.

Anaheim - Winnipeg

Winnipeg has always been a pain in the ass to play against this season. Their goalie has been pretty good lately and they seem to have a great team spirit as well. I feel like this match-up will be much closer than most people predict.

Prediction: Anaheim in 7.
i dont see them as much as you, but i feel like winnipeg are an ugly team who win or lose dirty. not sure how anaheim will respond after 5 or 6 games of that. longer the season goes the more it favours winnipeg...pavelec has been strong from about the start of march onward, but just like rinne is still rinne, he wakes up every morning and he's still ondrej pavelec...i'll go with ducks in seven, playoff inexperience hurting the jets in the end.

Vancouver - Calgary

I saw a couple of Flames matches this season. They are very fun to watch and even though I am not a fan of Hartley and his antics I will be rooting for them. I don't know much about Vancouver other than the Sedins and that they have changed their logo from a cool looking skate to a fish-shaped c, or is it a c-shaped fish? All I know is that I own 3 hockey jerseys from back when I was playing: one from my favourite swiss team, a red blackhawks and a black vancouver one because I thought they looked sweet. Ever since they changed their logo I can't care for them anymore...

Prediction: Calgary in 7.
canucks have won _one_ playoff game since blowing that game seven 4 years ago, but that's one more than the flames have won...this feels close, so i'll take the home team and say vancouver in 7.

Montreal - Ottawa

Couple weeks ago this would have been a very easy pick. Now Pacioretty is hurt and the Senators and their goalie are running hot but I don't see them getting past the team with the lowest GAA of the pre-season.

Prediction: Montreal in 6.
couple of weeks ago i was betting ottawa to win every game and doing rather nicely with it.

if price was coming in hot this would be a no brainer, but he isn't. flipside of that is ottawa's goaltending is going to come back down to earth at some point. hammond is not that good. i need to be bold somewhere, so patches back for game 1, and montreal in 5.

Tampa Bay - Detroit

Everybody loves Datsyuk and Zetterberg, too bad they don't get younger. I don't see them having much of a chance against a team that seems to be better on every level.

Prediction: Tampa Bay in 6.
yeah...i know a thing or two about zetterberg and datsyuk after back to back cup finals with them. datsyuk is one of the most skilled players i've ever seen. thank god he's 36. zetterberg is your archetypal redwings cheat-within-the ref's-interpretation-of-the-rules kind of asshole that you'd love on your team and despise because he isn't.

whenever i see the wings they feel like a team, always have. it will be interesting to see what happens to them without babcock. in any case, the lightning are just too good, especially at home. i give it to tampa in 5.

New York - Pittsburgh
we're toast.

I hate to say it
don't feel bad about it, i know this team stinks.

but I feel like this is the most lopsided match-up. I saw half of the match against the Isles and to me they didn't look like a team that is about to pull off an upset against the presidents trophy winner.

Prediction: Rangers in 5.
okay, it's not the most lopsided, tampa - detroit is, for the simple reason that detroit doesn't really have a player who can steal them a game. zetterberg and datsyuk might win them a game, but they won't steal a game they should have lost. pittsburgh have three guys that can do that.

it is, however, the hardest one to call. pouliot, letang and ehrhoff are all listed as day to day. if they're all ready to go, it could be a fight. if all three are in the press box, we're a sitting duck.

we are not as bad as we've looked for the last month, if we can click back into whatever headspace we were in in the first half of the season, it's going to be a tight series. unfortunately, this team has demonstrated in the past that it has a serious, almost adolescent, attitude problem. i agree rangers in 5, but since you said that, rangers in 6.

Washington - Islanders

Who gives a shit.

Prediction: Someone in 6.
home team has won every game this year, three of them went to overtime. capitals are coming in hotter though, and they have home ice. caps in 6.

all of this subject to change if i actually price this up properly and bet it. right now i'm enjoying the start of my vacation.

Draft Lottery next saturday will be exciting, i just hope the Bruins or Avs don't win. Also rooting against some boring teams like Carolina and Arizona. For some reason I would like the Oilers to win.

Prediction: Flyers win the draft.
i really hope the sabres get him. it's been a tough 7 or 8 years for buffalo, and it's a market where a kid like mcdavid is going to be appreciated. fuck the coyotes. not that the coyotes haven't had their disappointments too, i just don't give a shit about them. actually i want bad things to happen to them for the cheap hit on letang. edmonton will ruin him, the flyers are cunts, new jersey play such boring hockey he'll probably hang himself, and the carolina hurricanes are a team that exists according to but the last thing i actually remember about them is jordan staal's 175 foot empty net own goal. plus pj and acehole are both sabres guys, i don't think i know any fans of the other teams.

"Blah blah blah KC is right" - Ozone
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