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Old Oct 01, 2007, 10:41pm   #19
TWLLM
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I was gonna mention this discreetly but since there's a thread:

I'm inclined to agree with Seb about your premium being too high. As much as you have an established record at lower buyin tournaments, with no disrespect intended, your record in higher events is significantly weaker. After all, you were on that P5s ranking for tournaments under $50 buy-in, so I don't doubt your ability in those tournaments, but in the higher buyin events, your performance is more marginal. You're probably +EV in tournaments in the $250-$530 range, but not by enough to demand a 50% premium. And besides your own skill, these higher tournaments (especially the ones in esoteric games) have much harder competition, further decreasing your ROI in them.

We take too much of a chance on you when you're playing these higher buy-in events for a 50% premium to make sense. I realized this after the first couple of stakes, but by now I'm in that horrible 'stakeback vortex' where even though I don't think it's a great investment with such a high premium, I'm looking at a return on substantial sunk costs that definitely offset this. I was also under a mistaken (if induced or not) conception of how gross $ was distributed on losses, hence the actual risk in staking is higher than I had conceived of.

My solution would be to suggest that it would be more reasonable to reduce your premium to say 33% or so and just retain enough shares such that you always have at least 50% of yourself (so that you don't get stoned or go nuts b/c you don't care). This would apply to any event with a buyin at or above $200. And any event over $500 you might consider taking only 25% to reflect the added risk.

If you wanted to extend staking to lower buy-in events, then keeping a 50% premium makes sense. But I have a feeling you don't want to extend staking to the smaller events because your ROI is so much higher that it's bread and butter for you, whereas these other tournaments you're able to rely on us to let you take shots. Nothing wrong with that approach - you should just realize/accept that you're playing in the range where it is a riskier investment, and drop your premium in recognition thereof.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DoubleU
Oh, and obviously, TWLLM, we'd all rather you just ruled with an iron fist of nittiness and made all decisions without consultation, but that goes without saying, right?
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