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Old May 11, 2010, 11:04am   #1
SwoopAE
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Default @Ozone, Twogun - Politics props on Intrade

Arlen Specter to win the Democratic nomination for 2010 Pennsylvania Senate is paying 25.0 on Intrade, his actual odds are lower than 5.0 at the moment

I was on this a while back (not for money but I felt Sestak was better 50% even when Specter was 80.0)

Anyway, just giving you guys an opportunity to win your money back that you lost betting politics with me

Throwing $500 on this (Specter to lose nomination/Sestak to win) to win $250 is a very very solid investment, which should have a >100% ROI on average if you were to make the bet right now 100 times.

I'll do some more analysis to put an exact line if either of you actually want to bet, i'll throw on a bit with you (don't have an intrade acct can do xfer from whatever site) if either of you are interested. If you are let me know and i'll do an hour or so's research to confirm the actual odds, Specter is between 5.0 and 10.0 at the moment on a quick look.

Consider this my election betting guide

For anyone who doesn't know, i'm about 11/12 in politics prop bets lifetime at an average of about 1.5-1 in my favour (won two 5-1s in my favour, rest all at evens or close, lost a 5-1 in my favour)

I'll be putting any good politics bets here for the remainder of the leadup to the 2010 US election

@Mods move to the rail if you like I dont mind either way
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