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Old May 11, 2010, 11:12am   #2
SwoopAE
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BTW it's too early to bet on any house/senate races yet, Republicans to retake house at 46.0 is a bad bet, it's more like 28-30 at the moment but i'll know for sure one way or the other a few weeks out.

Dems to control senate is a lock, you can lock that in if you can get anything under 85.0 worst case for the dems is basically losing 8 seats and picking up zero barring several major unforseen scandals and that still gives them 51 with Lieberman (who isn't a guarantee) and Sanders (who is a lock to caucus with them)

In any case if you can find it under 90 it's +EV and under 80 it's an easy four figure bet.

I'll have more info closer to the elections in any case and can find some actual lock bets for anyone who wants to make free money. The senate races should provide some good value this year, in some cases on the D and in other cases on the R.

@Ozone have you been doing any intrade betting recently?
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