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Old May 17, 2010, 10:09pm   #15
SwoopAE
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k nate silver says Sestak is a 3-1 fav but higher if there's low turnout, which seems likely given the weather. I trust his analysis more than any other.

It was 65/35 Sestak/Specter on Intrade earlier today which was good value, has dropped to 75/25 again which is pretty meh, i'd say the true odds are like 79-21 at the moment, Sestak didn't run away with it the way I thought he would be he should still usually win.

Also Rubio looks like good value now, Crist is sinking and will probably keep sinking without the Republican machine to prop him up. Shoulda got on that one early. I wouldn't be surprised if Meek actually outperforms him on election day, given that Meek's only polling 18% at the moment i'd definitely get on that at about 3.5 or 4-1 if I could (not sure where to find odds on that sorta thing)
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