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Old May 19, 2010, 2:50pm   #22
SwoopAE
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Australia
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I'll match whatever action if you bet with me, I just don't have an intrade account and cbf setting once up since i'm only going to bet small stakes this election. I didn't even have money on Sestak myself, was just putting it out there since it was good value.

Follow my lead for an insignificant amount of money for this election season and make some real money in 2012 if you like my results.

If you want we can chip in $100 each and start with a $200 bankroll, see what we can run it up to over the course of the election season? Plenty more primaries and then lots of good spots for value on the general.

Also, read fivethirtyeight.com and in particular Nate Silver's analysis before ever placing another political prop bet. EVER. The McCain disaster could have been avoided if you had been seeing the numbers I was seeing in 2008.

I honestly almost threw 20k (my whole roll at the time) on Obama at 83 the day before the election because nate and 538 and the polling data had Obama at about 99.8ish the day before the election. It was very close to statistically impossible for him to lose at that stage. Obama was never under 70 to win the election at any point from when he won the nomination, even during McCain's convention bounce when McCain got to like 53 on Intrade.
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