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Old May 19, 2010, 3:29pm   #25
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Ok to start with

I have to read the rules of Dems to hold senate; if we're including Is that caucus with the dems this is a lock. It's currently trading at 75. The math makes it borderline impossible.

We're going to get on Sestak to win PA-SEN for a small portion of our bankroll, give it three days though. He's at 40 now when I think he's a 65-35 favourite. The D won PA-12 special election by 8 points yesterday in a race intrade had at 55 for the R. PA is a bluer state than investors think and we can hedge off at 50 later if it's still close near election day. Sestak WILL be favourite at some point here so need to get on him while he's still a dog. We can hedge off later if need be.

On another note, I think we need to evaulate whether buying Rubio (R for FL-Sen) or selling Crist is better value. I need to do more research into Kendrick Meek, but I think this one is a lost cause for the Ds and Crist will usually tank and be worthless before election day.

It's annoying to have to lock up so much equity now betting on the Ds to hold the senate but that's ridiculous value at 75. The true odds are like 94 or something right now, the Rs would have to sweep everything and the Ds lose all their pickup opportunities; the Rs will basically definitely win a net of 3-7 senate seats but 9 (or even 8 if Lieberman switches parties to tie it up; which I doubt he'd do, he'll only switch if it gives Rs the senate) just seems out of reach. 75 is RIDICULOUSLY good value here.

The house it's too early to bet on. I like the Ds side narrowly here but it's either going to be a Rs pick up 15 seats or Rs pick up 60 seats election. Bottom line is we don't know yet and we shouldn't bet either way yet (they need about 40-something seats to take back the house I think offhand). There will be value later, but right now is not the right time to bet. We'll see polling on individual races much later.

Ok i'm gonna go get dinner.

Oh and Rand Paul > Trey Grayson, that one was free money yesterday, lol, not sure if I mentioned it but Paul was only 83ish I think polling like 15 points ahead.
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