Thread: HU Video 50/100
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Old Nov 01, 2010, 11:28am   #2
killcrazy
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thanks for posting this joey, hopefully it will breathe some life into the forum.

i got about 13.5 minutes in while i ate my supper, so obviously i have twelve pages of thoughts.

firstly you haven't made any kind of comment about your opponent's tendancies or how he should be viewing you yet. we're only a few hands in but i would already be conscious of how aggressively i'm running him over and would be tempering my bluffs more than you are doing. for instance the three barrel bluff on the ragged flop where the third spade hits the turn, i likely shut down and turn the hand over. i want to keep my bets somewhat credible, particularly as he is showing an inclination to respect your bets by and large. as well as maintaining credibility in a general sense, you get the direct benefit of it being more likely you can force a 3 barrel bluff through next time.

thence to checkback ranges, i don't have a checkback range per se but i don't 100% cbet. 100% cbet in position is okay, it will be profitable and pretty comfortable against most opponents but there are players and situations where it isn't optimal imo. if you have a passive calling station your cbets are more heavily weighted towards being valuebets than they are steals, and unless you play that player a lot, you really don't have to worry about range balancing. against an opponent who is checkraise happy i'm going to check back with a good chunk of the hands that can't stand a checkraise, and against a guy who pounces on weakness i am going to show weakness both on the flop and the turn (following a cbet) with medium-weak showdown hands like bad second pairs from time to time.

i'm not sure what you're doing with pokerstove? there are a couple of times you've used it to show that your hand has equity against his preflop+cbet range, but i'm not sure how that leads you to "so i should checkraise here". it isn't that simple, if you're going to create an arithmetic support to your action, you need to be talking about his calling down range, his threebetting range, his call and raise turn range, and so on. you may have 75% equity against his cbetting range, but you definitely don't have 75% equity against his nonfolding range, and you have even less equity overall because he is threebetting some of that range and taking you for extra bets. i don't think i disagreed with any of your actions so far when you have pulled up pokerstove, but i disagree with the pokerstove related logic.

some hands.

the tens with i think 8h8s5h7s8c - something like that - on the board.

the river is kinda tricky, obviously you bet, but then the question is should he raise, and indeed, should you reraise. unless i'm misremembering, you say that your threebet is pretty standard, but go on to suggest that his raising with a 7 is iffy. this is a bit of a conundrum, if he shouldnt be raising a 7, then there really aren't many hands that TT can beat that will pay off, just 99 in fact.

you threebet preflop so your range is pretty well defined. there is going to be some air in your river betting range, junk like jack high that should almost never win a showdown, but you aren't calling a raise with that. lets just assume for the moment that you never reraise; for his raise to be good, he has to beat more than 50% of your calling range. i think you are going to call with some AKs and occasionally AQ, but that's pretty much it for the ace highs, maybe 10 of 32 combinations at the most. you call with 6 combinations of 66 which i assume is in your 3betting range, and a 5 on the rare occasions you have one (it being a 5 is unique because A5s is the special light 3bet hand) so lets say 3 instances of A5s in your range too, that gives us 19 combinations you call that he beats...but you are never going anywhere with 99+ either, which is 36 combinations (we'll ignore the few 8s in your range and err against ourselves). he has 19 wins and 36 loses, his bet is -EV. when you factor in that the top end of your range reraises and stings him for another bet, it's horribly -EV.

so the question is do you reraise, and again the question is what calls that you beat? here table image has a huge impact; because you have been steamrolling, i think you do get some crying calls from 7s and 5s, if indeed he did raise with those, but they would be the absolute bottom of his range. similarly, i don't think you can eliminate 8s from his range entirely because you have been running him over, and he should be walking the dog some % of the time (he's in position remember so he's giving up much less by letting you bet at him than he would be if he was checking this to you with an 8 ). i don't think we can completely eliminate overpairs either. there are no hands that i always fourbet because it makes it too easy to play correctly against me on the flop (it is more complicated than this obviously; i do go with a wide fourbet strategy against habitual threebettors for instance, but back to the point i was making), with AA i'd much rather let you have the lead and give you a nasty surprise later in the hand, so all things considered, he does have a fair chunk in his range that beats us and is obliged to raise here, but he has to have made a mistake to have a hand he calls with that we can beat (with the exception of 99)

...its a weird spot, because even though my brain crunches the numbers and says that we are beat too much if he calls our threebet, my experience tells me that nah, he has a 7 or a 5 most of the time and he will make the call. that is to say, raising with a 7 or a 5 is an extremely common mistake which we anticipate he will make, especially at the pace of the internet game and your bet bet bet table image.

i was supposed to go to bed an hour ago, why am i doing this now. okay one more hand.

the K6 where you back into a straight with the wheel on board. i might just fire into this river. it's a move as old as hold'em, when the turn and river complete a fourflush you lead into the river, and what can call? just the flush, and he doesn't have it that often. of course you and i both know how often that's a bluff and we're both making money in that spot as the caller, but here you are disguising a valuebet as a bluff. if he bets are you going to call? yes. if he raises are you going to fold? yes because; is he raising with anything that doesn't beat your hand? almost never. by betting, we get him to call a chunk of the time thinking it's a chop. so the question becomes, is he going to call thinking we're playing the board and he's chopping more often than he's going to bet to try and get us to fold the board straight?

from what we've seen of this player, and the level of aggression you've shown thus far, i think he's going to call our bet more often than he's going to bet the board, so i bet.

yeay sleep. thanks again, joey.

Kc
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