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Old May 19, 2011, 10:14pm   #2
killcrazy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
Everyone at the table is competent or a reg
nope. 4bettor is a losing PLO player, stuck pretty bad in ring games and an overall loser in tournaments.

Quote:
15% of the field left, 10% of the field paid roughly if that matters
how is your stack? you look short but others might be shorter.

messy spot. for you, i think i would sanction a fold. it's going to cost you on average about 9000 chips to get to the showdown, this is probably your worst game in the rotation, etc.

a standard utg raising range in LHE is somewhere around 16-20% (yes really) threebetting range is about 10% (its pretty much standard to 3bet any pair now if nobody has called the raise before it gets to you unless you're closing the action) and fourbetting range anywhere from about 2.5% to 6% to 10% in the case of fruitbats. i'd assume these numbers are going to tighten a fair amoung in a tournament obviously.

4bettor's range may well be in fruitbat territory, and i suspect that utg+1 has picked his hand and is stacking off. so, all told, i'd estimate you have around 33% equity as it stands, and one of these guys has aces or kings about, bleh, 40-45% of the time?

the problem isn't going to be A or K flops, it's going to be those semiwet flops that are connecting with the oh just fuck off part of utg and +1's ranges. you can hurt yourself pretty badly there, getting caught in the crossfire even if you aren't raising, so you call and see aces or fold and they turn over a busted draw and JJ and you end up stabbing yourself in the eye with a fork. also bear in mind that pretty much all pairs are in utg and +1's range (and possibly in 4bettor's too), so three apparently brickish cards have made someone a set like ~10% of the time and again, crossfire between overpair and set, or draw and set, or AK getting excited, cunt cunt cunt.

long and short is, you are putting in a lot of money to play a small edge in a minefield. i'd expect a lhe player to take it on, because he has a better feel for when to gtfo, but you're better off waiting for a cleaner spot or O/8.

(some of my estimates might prove to be off if someone actually runs the numbers, i can't be arsed waiting for pokerstove to churn out exact numbers for ranges that have high uncertainties and then trying to unify them into one value

Kc
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