Thread: Plo mtt
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Old Jul 19, 2011, 4:34am   #4
killcrazy
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this hand really just raises more questions than anything...the first question is what does he put you on? do you donk the flop with a jack? what's your table image?

in a vacuum, a competent tag should bluff the river some percentage of the time, but the question then becomes, what does he get to the river with that he can bluff? basically just 55. does 55 raise the flop? or the turn?

again in a vacuum, he might also be valuebetting KK or QQ, but do those hands get to the river? and what do they hope to get called by? are you going to go to war with 99 on that flop? no.

your turn bet is interesting. it is big. this polarises your range substantially imo, you either have very strong hand or very weak hand...both of which are true, this is a way ahead/way behind spot for you. still, it would take such balls to float you out of position for 15% of his stack on a dry JJ board that he should seek urgent medical attention for his massive testicular tumor.

55XX does kinda fit. on the flop he wants to be cautious to see if a big card comes off that can realistically fill JXXX. then on the turn he plans to checkraise, but when you bet so big he thinks maybe there is better value in walking the dog if you value your hand so much. plus the possibility that you are bluffing, he'd rather keep you bluffing. on the river his hand is bust, but the chances of you having a jack are slightly more than halved. still you can have a shitty pair that trumps his 55, so he turns his hand into a bluff, realising that you have a hard time calling with anything except the nuts.

here's the next question. if he has the case jack, would he bet the river? working back to the flop knowing that you can't have a jack, what are you donking with? AA (maybe, he would anticipate a pf3b) KK QQ 55 and air. that's your entire range. you are going to bet these hands on the river far more often than you are going to call with them. you thought your hand was strong on the turn, with the exception of 55 which is bust, your hand gets stronger on the river.

on the whole, i doubt he thought this deep. i think what happened was on the flop he has a weak jack and check-calls. on the turn he still has a weak jack, but you probably have a jack or a boat too, he has 10 outs and decent implied odds if he hits. on the river he makes the nuts. omfg nuts. # we gonna light this up like it's dy-no-mite *bet*. i think this line best describes reality.

Kc
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