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Old Dec 25, 2012, 4:27pm   #1
bluesjack9
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Default NFL futures bet. Hedge with pointspread? Money line? or let it ride?

Before the season I bet under 8 1/2 for total wins for Dallas for +130

Right now they are at 8 wins with the Sunday night game at Washington to go.

spread now is Dallas + 3.

The moneyline is not posted at my site but the conversion chart shows + 3 translates to the +130/+135 range. (KC, can you confirm this?)

If I bet Dallas with the money line I'm guarantied either $30 or $35.

If I bet $100 and take the points and either Dallas wins outright or Washington wins and covers I lose $10

If I take the points and Washington wins and there is a push I win $130

If Washington wins but doesn't cover the 3 I win $230

There's not a lot of money at stake but what's the play?

For what it's worth my handicap/gut says Washington wins the game but I'm trying to not let that color my thinking
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Old Dec 25, 2012, 5:35pm   #2
killcrazy
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if i understand what you're asking, then dallas are a biscuit over 6/4 (+150) to win against washington on the UK books, with the spread at between 3 and 3.5 points.

as to whether or not to trade, it depends on where the value is. on a short odds bet i'm not going to trade just to green up. if when the odds come out you think dallas are too long, then buy them, if the odds are too short then leave it. this is always max EX.

Kc
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Old Dec 26, 2012, 2:19pm   #3
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Originally Posted by killcrazy View Post
if i understand what you're asking, then dallas are a biscuit over 6/4 (+150) to win against washington on the UK books, with the spread at between 3 and 3.5 points.

as to whether or not to trade, it depends on where the value is. on a short odds bet i'm not going to trade just to green up. if when the odds come out you think dallas are too long, then buy them, if the odds are too short then leave it. this is always max EX.

Kc
Thanks for the conversion confirmation KC but now I'm confused

my original bet will pay me $130 if Dallas loses and I lose 100 if they win

If I now bet Dallas to win on the moneyline I would win $130 should they win and lose 100 on the original bet.

Isn't a no lose money winning play, even for short money, the only truely +EV play?
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Old Dec 26, 2012, 5:42pm   #4
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Originally Posted by killcrazy View Post
if i understand what you're asking, then dallas are a biscuit over 6/4 (+150) to win against washington on the UK books, with the spread at between 3 and 3.5 points.

as to whether or not to trade, it depends on where the value is. on a short odds bet i'm not going to trade just to green up. if when the odds come out you think dallas are too long, then buy them, if the odds are too short then leave it. this is always max EX.

Kc
Thanks for the conversion confirmation KC but now I'm confused

my original bet will pay me $130 if Dallas loses and I lose 100 if they win

If I now bet Dallas to win on the moneyline I would win $130 should they win and lose 100 on the original bet.

Isn't a no lose money winning play, even for short money, the only truely +EV play?
no. what you're talking about is reducing variance rather than increasing EV.

if dallas are exactly 13/10 to win this game, then betting them at 13/10 is EV neutral, regardless of your previous bets, but it is much lower variance. in both cases your expectation would be $30, but winning $30 regardless of the outcome is obviously lower variance than winning $130 13/23 of the time and losing $100 10/23 of the time. but still, (13/23*130)-(10/23*100)=30.

if dallas are more like 6/4 to win the game and the best price a bookie will give you is 13/10, then trading gives up value. if you bet them and green up then your EV is $30 as before, but your EV before you bet is:

6/10*130 - 4/6*100 = $38

and the new bet is a big loss.

on the other hand if it's more like even money and you can bet them at 13/10 then still you guarantee $30 by making the bet, but if you let it ride your ev is:

1/2*130 - 1/2*100 = $15

and making the new bet is much better.


so like i said before, the EV attached to this bet depends entirely on how good a bet this is, regardless of whether it's a fresh bet or trading a position you already own.

that is assuming that variance isn't a concern, which i presume it isn't.

Kc
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Old Dec 26, 2012, 8:00pm   #5
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no. what you're talking about is reducing variance rather than increasing EV.

if dallas are exactly 13/10 to win this game, then betting them at 13/10 is EV neutral, regardless of your previous bets, but it is much lower variance. in both cases your expectation would be $30, but winning $30 regardless of the outcome is obviously lower variance than winning $130 13/23 of the time and losing $100 10/23 of the time. but still, (13/23*130)-(10/23*100)=30.

if dallas are more like 6/4 to win the game and the best price a bookie will give you is 13/10, then trading gives up value. if you bet them and green up then your EV is $30 as before, but your EV before you bet is:

6/10*130 - 4/6*100 = $38

and the new bet is a big loss.

on the other hand if it's more like even money and you can bet them at 13/10 then still you guarantee $30 by making the bet, but if you let it ride your ev is:

1/2*130 - 1/2*100 = $15

and making the new bet is much better.


so like i said before, the EV attached to this bet depends entirely on how good a bet this is, regardless of whether it's a fresh bet or trading a position you already own.

that is assuming that variance isn't a concern, which i presume it isn't.

Kc
OK I see your point, thanks
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