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Old Jan 21, 2010, 10:34am   #111
LilPokerGirlie
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Originally Posted by Feroc View Post
hmmm... nur mal aus Interesse, wie hoch sind die Chancen?

Die Chance auf eine Farbe waren 48,64% und im Video labert er von 50€ am Anfang. Das hätte er erreicht, wenn er...

1 + 2 + 4 + 8 + 16 = 31

Wenn es also 5x schief geht, dann hätte er schon nicht mehr das Geld um weiter zu verdoppeln.
Die Chance, dass es 5x schief geht liegt dann bei (100%-48,64%)^5 = ...

Seh ich das richtig?
fyp

Last edited by LilPokerGirlie; Jan 21, 2010 at 10:38am.
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Old Jan 21, 2010, 10:41am   #112
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fyp
thx... also ~3,6%
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Old Jan 21, 2010, 11:04am   #113
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Die Chance, dass es schief geht, liegt bei 100%. Das hat nicht den geringsten +EV ausser für den mit dem Affiliate-Link.

Dein "es muss ja fünf mal schief gehen" gilt ja nur für den Verdienst durch Verdoppeln des kleinsten Einsatzes. Also wenn man mit 1 EUR anfängt und möchte so 50 EUR verdoppeln, müsste es 50x "fünf mal nicht schief gehen".

Statistische Ausrutscher gibts aber auch... Also es _kann_ mal klappen... Aber die Chance ist recht gering.
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Old Jan 21, 2010, 11:13am   #114
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Ich bekomm immer die Wut wenn die Leute so schlau tuen mit IHREM System und es ist immer und immer wieder Martingale, ich frag mich nur wie viele Accounts der hat um die Kommentare zu schreiben.
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Old Jan 21, 2010, 11:39am   #115
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Dein "es muss ja fünf mal schief gehen" gilt ja nur für den Verdienst durch Verdoppeln des kleinsten Einsatzes. Also wenn man mit 1 EUR anfängt und möchte so 50 EUR verdoppeln, müsste es 50x "fünf mal nicht schief gehen".
Die Chance liegt dann etwa bei 16%... ein 3-outer... ;)

Gut, hatte mir das noch nie so genau ausgerechnet.
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Old Jan 21, 2010, 12:02pm   #116
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lol, wtf, das "ganz sichere system" wird ja auch schriftlich sehr viel "beworben", aber jetzt schon so von einem 17jährigen, der immer schön mit Paysafe einzahlt (wie auch sonst ohne altersverifizierung), hätte sich noch ne Story zum auscashen überlegen sollen
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2. . Man raist nicht um zu wissen wo man steht sondern for value.

Unglaublich, ....

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Das ich das mal erleben darf, 2x mit der schlechteren Hand reingeschoben und tatsächlich gewonnen. Wahnsinn.

aber wahr.
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