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Old Jul 24, 2014, 3:43pm   #1
feudallord
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Default Examples and the "rule of 9"

Sup newbs. Nah jk. Yeah starting that nasty 8 hour shift baby. Unfortunately I have a deep seeded poker addiction. I think I've saved up enough to go back in tomorrow night. I'm not certain I have to verify but they give bonuses to people who show up at the start of the game, at 7 pm. I can get there right after work.

So to pass some time and get my brain exercised in the right fashion to increase my odds of coming out ahead to the max.

Table is usually always full, 10 handed. Let's say I've been folding for thirty minutes and have managed to keep $60 in chips at this time. Let's say a few people have $200, and the others $400. That's generally what the chip stacks have been last two times.

First couple of examples are real experiences I've had at the game that were costly.

__________________________________________________ ____________________

1.

Folds to me in seat 5. I have 44, $135 in chips at this point.

A young white guy my age to my left, who I've been talking to after big A6 triple up then loss putting up $100 preflop with AQcc, raises to $15. He fliped over quads 8s high about 30 minutes earlier. Everyone folds around to me. What's the EV+ decision here? At this point, all I'm thinking about is getting a 4 on the flop, because if I do that then I'll probably double up. At this point, I'm 86% certain his range is AT-AK, more likely than JJ-AA. He definitely has high cards though. I'm mad because I threw away 100 preflop on AQ when it was clear AQ was against face pair, and I want the money back quickly so i can leave without empty pockets.

I end up calling, and the flop is A Q T. I check and he bets $25 into me, I am forced to fold and am down to like $90.

__________________________________________________ ____________________
2.

A few hands later, I get AQo UTG +2. I have $90 in chips. I call. You'd probably say to raise. How much would you raise to with that stack size?

Someone ends up raising in middle position, to $10. 3 people call including the big stack who has been running hot all night and has a loud mouth. Alright I call too, and i hate this shit, the flop comes:

6 7 8

About the worst possible fucking board for AQ. I check, the others check to the big stack, who bets $20. Out of rage that my supposed "good hand preflop" didn't hit anything, I shove all in. Fold fold, big stack calls and flips over 89o.

Turn: 5
River: Q

And what's worse is the piece of shit slow rolled me. I flipped over, and someone was like, "huh, he got his Queen." And I stared right at the loud mouth and asked, "Is it good?" He finally flipped over the straight after like 10 seconds and making weird noises as if I was in deep anticipation or something it was really fucking annoying.

How do we play AQ/AK on flops like that OOp in a raised pot?

Thanks. Oh shit, the rule of 9. I may have mentioned this at some point before, im not sure. Basically in your old old posts from years ago you break down the card odds pretty well. I'm still not sure if it's a coincidence, if it actually works, or it's just a placebo effect, but there is one thing 100% that the rule of 9 does, and it is that it makes me fold as much as I should fold.

I got into the game because of the hands. In January my first live game at atlantic city, i came up $300 on $100 as you know. Big win for me for my first live game. During a cigarette break, a poker player told me that the secret to winning is "to always have something." Well that fits in to the reason why I play in the first place.

How it works for me is hand types are categorized into the following:

Straight, Flush, Pair, Random, Ak, AQ, AJ

The strong aces have their own slots because I read somewhere they too have a ratio of hitting the flop, is it 3 to 1? Random is weird shit like 92, Q4, J6. On occasion they make two pair to beat a strong one pair.

Based on your math, hopefully I've been interpreting it right, the straight cards will make a straight ~once out of 10-15 deals of that type. With flush type, ~ once out of 5 times. With pair type, ~ once out of at least 5-8 deals. This is important because another tendency i have is to go set mining on every pair dealt regardless of its ranking on each trial, I don't think i've folded a small pair in a long time, like preflop without even calling.

Like I said, even if I'm wrong, the system forces me to fold a lot more hands, which I take to increase my chances of hitting, and also being in the correct position to play in the first place.

But the reason why I think it actually does works is because of its results. My results net is -$13,000. So you might think its silly. Thing is I rarely follow the system to the letter because it takes forever and i get impatient. Then I play the suited hand too early, and pay too much money for it only to miss. For example the 44 example above was like the first pair I was dealt and the flop came out all high cards. Thing is board can be 567 and give 3 overs lol. Hmm.

Or take the A4dd hand against KK i wrote about. I hadn't played a hand in ~ 45 minutes, that's how long it took to get to trial "5" on the flush cards, and I flopped a Qc 2h 3h board, which after that long is good enough for me to shove on . An ace works too, as it turned itself on fourth street, and KK said aww do you have Ace? Yes, I do, because I waited for it. Not to mention that if I'd lost that hand I would've had like $50 for 2 weeks. I ended up leaving with $300 that night though.
__________________________________________________ ____________________

Last edited by feudallord; Jul 24, 2014 at 3:49pm.
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Old Jul 24, 2014, 4:49pm   #2
killcrazy
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hand 1

you have $135, it's $15 to play. you are drawing to 3 outs, three times. if you don't hit you will be obliged to fold (you could hit something like 235 but that's pretty rare so let's keep it simple). the probability of hitting at least one four on the flop is calculated thusly:

1 - (don't hit a four on card 1) * (don't hit a four on card 2) * (don't hit a four on card 3)

note that it's often easier to work out the chances of something not happening. putting in values we get:

1 - (48/50 * 47/49 * 46/48 )

= 1 - (48*47*46 / 50*49*48 )

= 1 - (103776 / 117600)

= 1 - 0.882

= 0.118 = 11.8%

to express this as odds:

(100-11.8 ):11.8

= 88.2:11.8

= 7.47:1

which means that for every $1 you put in the pot, you must win, on average, $7.50 from opponents to make the call profitable.

if we use your assumed range (you are not 86% certain, don't be a bellend) of AT+ JJ+ then around 73% of his hands are unpaired, and 27% of his hands are paired.

those 73% of unpaired hands will pair by the turn around 35% of the time (effectively the same odds of flopping a pair with unpaired cards, since he will get 2 flop cards plus the turn to pair). if we assume that you get a 2/3 pot ($20) continuation bet from him when he doesn't pair, and we get his entire stack when he has a big pair or pairs one of his cards (which is being generous to ourselves, he could make a weak pair and fold it) and that he never makes a bigger set than us or otherwise draws out on us in some way (again being generous to ourselves) then:

0.27 he begins with a pocket pair and we stack him (+$135)
0.35*0.73 = 0.26 he hits a pair and we stack him (+$135)
0.65*0.73 = 0.47 he misses and we get a cbet (+$35)

so (0.53*$135)+(0.47*$35) = $71.55 + $16.1 = $87.65

on average we will win $87.65 for our $15 investment, which gives us implied odds of 5.84:1, well short of the 7.5:1 we need to be profitable...and we should fold.

but because there is infinite space i can keep going. this only describes what happens the 11.8% of the time you hit your 4. 11.8% of the time you win $87.65. 88.2% of the time you lose the $15 you threw in preflop:

(0.118*$87.65) - (0.882*$15) = $10.34 - $13.23

= -$2.89

you lose, on average, $2.89 by making this call. we have been absurdly generous in our assumptions, and we are still pishing money into the sea.


hand 2

i would make whatever the standard open raise is at that table. in a sensible game i'm going to open to ~2.5BB, but if the standard open at the table is 5BB, okay, i'll open for 5BB. calling is fucking terrible. openlimping is always fucking terrible. if you post another story where you open limp i'm going to kick you in the bollocks.

678 flop, fold. you're in awful shape. that flop has smashed at least one opponent in the face.

a lot of people get pissed off with slowrolls, it's considered the height of bad manners in a serious poker game. if you're at a table where slowrolling is considered okay, then you're playing with idiots and should be grateful.

Quote:
How do we play AQ/AK on flops like that OOp in a raised pot?
by being the raiser preflop to make it harder for people to tag along with wanky drawing hands, and by getting the fuck out of the way if anyone expresses an interest. we have fuck all here.

i'll do the rest in a bit.

Kc
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Old Jul 24, 2014, 5:35pm   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by feudallord View Post
Oh shit, the rule of 9. I may have mentioned this at some point before, im not sure. Basically in your old old posts from years ago you break down the card odds pretty well. I'm still not sure if it's a coincidence, if it actually works, or it's just a placebo effect, but there is one thing 100% that the rule of 9 does, and it is that it makes me fold as much as I should fold.
fuck is the rule of 9?

Quote:
I got into the game because of the hands. In January my first live game at atlantic city, i came up $300 on $100 as you know. Big win for me for my first live game. During a cigarette break, a poker player told me that the secret to winning is "to always have something." Well that fits in to the reason why I play in the first place.
first rate wisdom from the cheap seats. it's a good thing socrates is dead because he just got served.

Quote:
Straight, Flush, Pair, Random, Ak, AQ, AJ
those aren't terms that can be ordered in sequence. a straight is a five card hand, AK is a two card starting hand.

Quote:
The strong aces have their own slots because I read somewhere they too have a ratio of hitting the flop, is it 3 to 1? Random is weird shit like 92, Q4, J6. On occasion they make two pair to beat a strong one pair.
any unpaired starting hand flops at least a pair thusly, and using the same math as in the previous post:

1 - (44/50 * 43/49 * 42/48 )

= 1 - (79464 / 117600)

= 1 - 0.676

= -0.32.4%

it's close enough that you can get away with regarding it as being 1 time in 3, or 2:1.

Quote:
Based on your math, hopefully I've been interpreting it right, the straight cards will make a straight ~once out of 10-15 deals of that type. With flush type, ~ once out of 5 times.
eh? no.

if you have a four flush, you will complete it on the next card about one time in five. the chances of making a flush by the river when you hold two suited cards are about 13:1

the chances of completing an open ended straight with one card to come are slightly longer than 5:1. i can't be arsed to work out what the chances of making a straight by the river with a connector are.

Quote:
With pair type, ~ once out of at least 5-8 deals.
we covered this in the previous post. i have no idea where you got those values from. huge difference between 5 and 8.

Quote:
Like I said, even if I'm wrong, the system forces me to fold a lot more hands, which I take to increase my chances of hitting, and also being in the correct position to play in the first place.
...i don't know what that means, but i'm delighted for you.

a lot of disjointed waffle followed that, but i helped you out by deleting it.

Kc
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Old Jul 24, 2014, 7:29pm   #4
feudallord
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Where are you getting the value "1" from in the first equation in hand 1?


The rule of 9 is supposed to narrow down the moment your cards hit and also keep you folding 90% of hands.

Last edited by feudallord; Jul 24, 2014 at 7:38pm.
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Old Jul 24, 2014, 8:05pm   #5
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Originally Posted by feudallord View Post
Where are you getting the value "1" from in the first equation in hand 1?
from elementary school maths.

decimal probabilities always add up to 1, in the same way that percentages always add up to 100. decimals are easier to work with.

Quote:
The rule of 9 is supposed to narrow down the moment your cards hit and also keep you folding 90% of hands.
right. so, to rephrase my question; fuck is the rule of 9?

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Old Jul 24, 2014, 8:46pm   #6
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Lmfao, a "bellend." What a word, according to this its british slang for the head of a cock. Hahahahaha thats great

Alright. I suppose I'm afraid of opening with hands like AQ for a raise because if i get that kind of board I'll feel committed to the pot. That's just a discipline issue though. I think against those players, opening for a raise most of the time is a better play. You said betting for info isn't good, but against these heads if i open and get played back at ill have a better idea of where AQ stands. To be honest, most of the time they are not bluffing. To be honest, when im dealt AK, AQ, even QQ+, i get nervous that ill lose my whole stack to either a higher card or some ridiculous run of the board. I should get excited instead i get apprehensive lol

I apply the rule of 9 to play chips/freerolls. Last night i played one where i followed it to the letter, and on the trial i pinpointed to be the winning trial, I flopped a boat, turned a nut straight, and rivered a flush with various holdings. The straight was a Q9, the boat was a 56. Is it just coincidence, really? or does it actually have something to do with the bell curve?

Or, it just goes back to what you said 3 years ago, that what determines when to play those cards is solely based on implied odds situations, and nothing else. I mean hell, to get locked into one of those situations takes at least an hour unless its some weird night. For example to be deep stacked and get dealt an 89 suited facing a 5x pre flop raise say on the button or cutoff

So basically in the 44 hand, or in any hand that has the potential to be a monster, the odds of getting that card has to be equal to or greater than the pot odds? For the call to be profitable or EV+ correct? I mean shit that's an easy game if you use math to make your decisions lol

Usually when im facing terrible pot odds on a call i do anyway because i want to beat the guy for making it so expensive to see more cards. 9/10 ive missed tho lel.

Last edited by feudallord; Jul 24, 2014 at 9:07pm.
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Old Jul 24, 2014, 9:29pm   #7
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Originally Posted by feudallord View Post
Lmfao, a "bellend." What a word, according to this its british slang for the head of a cock. Hahahahaha thats great
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/s...-2013070374748

Quote:
Alright. I suppose I'm afraid of opening with hands like AQ for a raise because if i get that kind of board I'll feel committed to the pot. That's just a discipline issue though.
is that you feel like if you're the aggressor preflop and then back off when the board comes, that you're going to look like a bitch?

this could also explain the making one call too many when behind thing.

Quote:
You said betting for info isn't good, but against these heads if i open and get played back at ill have a better idea of where AQ stands.
and what is the dollar value of that information? because i guarantee you it isn't anywhere near the number of dollars you paid for it.

Quote:
To be honest, most of the time they are not bluffing. To be honest, when im dealt AK, AQ, even QQ+, i get nervous that ill lose my whole stack to either a higher card or some ridiculous run of the board. I should get excited instead i get apprehensive lol
you'd be better off letting go of emotion altogether. or at least keeping it to a minimum. especially live where it can be picked up on by your opponents.

also there is a big difference between AK and AQ, AK can be played aggressively, raising, reraising and fourbetting preflop. AQ requires the player to be more careful. which is to say, AK plays much better against a reraising range than AQ does. you should certainly raise with it, and if the open raise comes from middlelate or late position you should often reraise, but don't play it like its only a little behind AK because it isnt'.

Quote:
I apply the rule of 9 to play chips/freerolls.
for the last time, what the fuck is the rule of 9?

explain the rule of 9 to me. is it something i made up when i was taking the piss?

Quote:
Last night i played one where i followed it to the letter, and on the trial i pinpointed to be the winning trial, I flopped a boat, turned a nut straight, and rivered a flush with various holdings. The straight was a Q9, the boat was a 56. Is it just coincidence, really? or does it actually have something to do with the bell curve?
i honestly have no idea. do you ever read what you write before posting it?

Quote:
Or, it just goes back to what you said 3 years ago, that what determines when to play those cards is solely based on implied odds situations, and nothing else.
yeah, this.

Quote:
So basically in the 44 hand, or in any hand that has the potential to be a monster, the odds of getting that card has to be equal to or greater than the pot odds?
than the implied odds. the real art is in evaluating the implied odds accurately.

Quote:
For the call to be profitable or EV+ correct? I mean shit that's an easy game if you use math to make your decisions lol
i learnt all the math i needed for poker by the age of about 12. the trick is getting information, processing it, and building the appropriate model to evaluate it.

but for the time being, you can rely on shit other people have figured out and the very simple rules they give you for not fucking up.

Quote:
Usually when im facing terrible pot odds on a call i do anyway because i want to beat the guy for making it so expensive to see more cards. 9/10 ive missed tho lel.
*sigh*

Kc
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Old Jul 24, 2014, 9:36pm   #8
feudallord
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Haha nah I'm working on that. It's my biggest leak. And yes, I'm afraid of looking like a bitch for being the aggressor and getting a flop that makes my erection shrivel. Ties into the calling ridiculous odds.

It seems this is my biggest problem. Here's what im gonna do. When I get home log on to some tournys, im gonna try and understand your math model, and if ive questions ill ask. I can pull some more exmaples from the tournys so...if i ever become a winning player and win a lot of money, ill have to buy you a beer.

Are you playing currently btw? Live or online or both? And what kind of games? almost outta here.

Haha actually speaking of which. I was using my chart/rule of 9 in one, and i did hit the Q5 on a Q 3 6 board no hearts, but a villain was betting hard on every street.
First i say to myself, hmm, all he needs is QT to be kicking my ass let alone AQ, KQ, etc. It was a good $100 prize pool too, called it all off.

Later on that evening at 2am, i said to myself, alright, you know what, for once let me try this position/pot odds/implied odds thing even though it takes forever to get in those spots. I get black AK, I think i opened for a raise i cant remember. The point is the board was K 3 2 black, and I bet hard cuz i hit the K. The villain calls his remaining 1k and flips KQ, hits the Q on the turn. That shit was retarded. not only have i lost hundreds in that spot holding KQ, but the %s are like 90 vs 10 lol. Even though I lost the hand, it wasn't upsetting like losing holding a busted flush/straight draw, because I know if i get in that spot again i'll usually win. cant wait to play

ya fuck it im gonna hold on to my 100, study another week and really be ready for friday next week. I'll have cash in the bank, fresh bag of buddies, and a buy in that i will take to the mother fucking top

As much as I am going to hate folding a four flush on the flop to bad pot odds on a call, I'll do it, and see how far I go. Watch me get in the top 3 next freeroll i play doing that shit lol. Once i see the result i'll probably stick to it. And there's really no point in feeling upset if someone else calls and the card comes out, because it usually wont anyway. I just have to keep reminding myself that.
__________________________________________________ ___________________

I just remembered an important hand from the previous session:

HAND 3

I have 33 on the cutoff. This is my last buy in after losing the $300 A6 catch, first with the AQcc against loud mouth, then slowly getting chipped away calling every hand trying to hit to get the loss back. I went in for 80, and am down to $60 at this point. The button is a chill dude who I've seen and played with each time i've been there. He's my age but never went to college, dropped out of high school, and does construction for a living. We'd both been playing for several hours, the only difference is that he had about a $300 stack. Im' not sure where the raise came from, let's just say it was from middle position for $12. It was between 10-15. Folds to me, I flat call here. The button calls. Blinds fold. 3 way pot. I wanted to shove pre btw to take the blinds but was scared someone would call and hit an over.

FLOP: 2 4 6

Raiser checks, I check, button checks.

Turn: 8

Same action

River: K

What a shitty card for me. I thought i was good on the flop. Maybe on the turn, but definitely not on the fucking river.

Check.
Check.
Bet $30.

He wasn't bluffing, middle pos folds, i call, and he flips over K2.

WTF?

Last edited by feudallord; Jul 24, 2014 at 10:01pm.
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Old Jul 24, 2014, 10:58pm   #9
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answer my question or fuck off.

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Old Jul 24, 2014, 11:24pm   #10
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Which one? Oh haha. I'm not sure how to answer if you mean "what the rule of nine is."

So I just ran into one of the players from last weeks game on my way home. He said that he busted out $300 against that same guy, the loud mouth. Apparently he left with at least 1,000 lucky bastard

The hand was loud oop and the guy i ran into on the button

It was JJ vs T6o

JJ raises T6 to $20, T6 calls.
Flop : T 3 2

Nice flop for JJ. JJ bets pot $50. T6 calls.

Turn: 6

They got it all in there. Unreal
__________________________________________________ __

HAND 4

1.5 in chips 63hh on the button. 6 callers leading to me. Am I getting 7 to 1 on a call with the pot at 140?

Blinds: 20/40 in a freeroll
__________________________________________
HAND 5

I sit down at the table to complete a ten handed game. I am baked as a kite. My 80 is divided into reds and whites.

I fold everything. The 58 suited, the 45 off. I start chatting with the opponents bc there's nothing else to do. Except watching. I told myself, follow the check list, in reverse. Start with the table temperature. If what you mean by this is is it soft or hard, then it was soft at that time. There was a lot of limping going on, but I stayed out anyway because I needed the chips for a real hand in case it was raised then.

I Decide to call in the cut off after 2 rounds, down to about $65, against 3 callers before me. I hold 23 cc

FLOP: 2 A 3 rainbow

I bet $2

A guy in 4th seat raises to $20. Then to a black guy who just tripled with up with AA vs TT and AJ. So he had us both covered. He raises to $50.

It's to me now. Guess what. It did take me 30 seconds, but I folded. I feel like you would be surprised because I always call in that spot. Not that time. I Figure in a limped pot, someone probably had a higher two pair like aces up, but it was equally as likely someone tossed in 2 with a 45, the black guy throwing all his newly won chips in. I folded

Unfortunately the aces up folded so we never got to see black guys cards, but he claimed he had the straight. Aces up showed aces up when he folded. He had to have had a straight, in any case it was a bad spot and I got out.
_______________________
HAND6

A little later I get Q8ss. I open for $8. I'm in middle position everyones folded to me with $60 left. A guy on the SB calls.

FLOP: As Qh Ks

He bets $10. I call

TURN: Td

He checks. I bet $15. He folds

Took down a nice 40-50 pot there and was back to $85

__________________________________________________ _____________________________
HAND 7

I am dealt 88 in middle position. I open for $10. cut off calls, black guy calls in the blinds.

FLOP 7 9 J

SB checks, I check, cuttoff checks.

TURN: 7

SB checks, I check, cutoff checks

RIver: K

Shitty card for me. this time the sb bets $20. I thought for 30 seconds and called hoping he was bluffing. Cutoff folded i flip over 88 and he mucked. Was up to around $120 now.

__________________________________________________ _______________________________
Wish I got up and called it a night, was 90 minutes in at this point. I make 10 / hr at my job, had i left then, i couldve said i made 35-40 an hour. Four times what i make at work. What makes me start to play bad is when this happens

HAND8


I Have AK of UTG. Awesome. I'm destined to either lose eeverything here including my mind or double up.

I call.

Folds to the cutoff who raises to $15, and the SB ships it all in for his last $40. I have $120 now, and figured ishould use the winnings on this hand. ACtually first i was saying i should just fold, and wait for more soft pots to continue building my stack safely using board/people reading, as opposed to getting involved in a coin flip situation. OBviously at that point I'm up against pairs, and most liekly not aces, most likely anything from 88-QQ at that point. I read something about high cards being blockers to pairs, so if i have AK isn't it more unlikely its up against AA nd KK in terms of pairs anyway?

Anyway I made this call preflop for 40 and im back down to 80 now.

FLOP: 7 8 9

Ugh. Come the fuck on. But wait, dont get mad. Didnt we already deduce that AK only hits 1nce out of 3? Chill out, get out, and find better spots because they will come. It's only been 90 minutes.

Instead I got infuriated inside because i had to fold to the next bet from the last position of 30 or so.

The K hit the river, and the guy all in also had AK, we would have chopped, the third guy had 88.

Now, tell me, based on the numbers in that spot, i should've folded correct?

Could we agree, that, AK, in the end, is a chasing hand, even though if it DOES hit it beats all pairs except one? THe other thing is time. I wanted to grind out 6-8 hours. I should not have risked my stack that early even with AK, esp because i couldve continued winning small pots like the Q8 while also having a great chance at showing down the winner know what i m
__________________________________________________ ______
HAND 9

74 hh comes UTG+3. I folded. Heres the crazy thing though

FLOP: 7c 4c Qh

Two people got it all in for hundreds, and the winner flipped over 77. I was so happy i folded that hand preflop like i should have. Never in all this time have i played this way.
__________________________________________________ ____
HAND 10

I have 70. KQ hh in SB

It's a straddle hand where to call becomes 5. The button raises, someone who I've played with already before, I know he's tight, and plays the high cards. I call as does UTG limper.

FLOP: 6h 9h 2d.

I check, UTG checks, button bets $15.

I call. UTG calls.

Turn 3c.

I check. UTG checks. Button bets $40.

I called and missed the river. That was game for me. What went wrong there? I can tell you. My weakness leaked. Was upset about AK. A gross over bet into a pot of 35 or so. Even if i hit the flush he would've folded to a river bet

If I can fold flopped two pair, i can stop calling ridiculous fucking overbets for a hand thats ridiculously hard to get in a spot where i wont get paid even if i get there, wtf was i thinking

Last edited by feudallord; Jul 26, 2014 at 6:02am.
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