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Old Mar 04, 2005, 6:19am   #1
psantana
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Default Getting dominated while dominating.

I have been a losing poker player for 4 months, and I just didn't understand how. So I have started to keep a log. I know this is just a small sample, but it is explaining things so far.

SnGs played: 34
10th: 3
9th: 6
8th: 3
7th: 5
6th: 5
5th: 1
4th: 2
3rd: 2
2nd: 1
1st: 6


All in Preflop -

Coin Flips: 16
won: 4
lost: 12

Dominating Hands 70% favorite or more: 19
won: 7
lost: 12

Dominated Hands 30% or less: 28
won: 6
lost: 22

2 Live Cards: 21
won: 10
lost: 11

Outdrawn after all in on the flop: 11



I am most concerned with my coin flips and dominating hands. I keep telling myself it will balance out, but it is actually moving the wrong way. Not too happy with how many times I have been outdrawn either, lead to a lot of early finishes.
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Old Mar 04, 2005, 7:54am   #2
psantana
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Default 4 SnGs 4 suckouts

Just a little update for the last 4 SnGs.


3rd:1
9th:3

Coin Flips: 1
won: 0
lost: 1

Dominating Hands 70% favorite or more: 0
won: 0
lost: 0

Dominated Hands 30% or less: 3
won: 0
lost: 3

2 Live Cards: 2
won: 1
lost: 1

Outdrawn after all in on the flop: 4

All 4 were just crazy beats, call a 10x raise with T6o then chase the gut shot, or the call your whole stack with just two overcards K high, Then there was the guy with his flush draw, just couldn't lay it down to an all-in check raise. Oh lets not forget the slow played AA against my flopped two pair. He catches runner runner for a flush.
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Old Mar 04, 2005, 9:24am   #3
vitaltilt
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I think there is another thread (prolly in the tourney section, not exactly sure) that talks about how many SNGs one needs to play in order to get reliable stats --- and I think it is in the 200-300 range.

50 SNGs isn't close to a decent sample size, and I doubt you can "bet" on your stats "correcting" themselves in the coming SNGs you will be playing. This is Gambler's Fallacy and, trust me, I have fallen to this way of thinking earlier (specifically with flopping sets ;x).

If you continue playing SNGs I think you just have to stick to your game (or improve your game) without paying complete attention to your bad beat/outdrawn stats. After 200 SNGs the percentages will prolly be much closer, but that is 4x the SNGs in the future.

My guess is that you are a decent SNG player but these stats have you second guessing your play or just damage your confidence --- if that is the case, I think you should try to put aside these stats for a bit and judge your SNG play on specific situations. Perhaps you are playing too aggressively in the beginning of SNGs or maybe it is just bad beats/bad luck. I'm no tourney player, so hopefully a tourney vet will stop by and post as well.

Take care and good luck. Hope this was of help, my apologies if it was not.
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Old Mar 06, 2005, 10:27am   #4
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Default Re: Getting dominated while dominating.

Quote:
Originally Posted by psantana
I have been a losing poker player for 4 months, and I just didn't understand how. So I have started to keep a log. I know this is just a small sample, but it is explaining things so far.

SnGs played: 34
10th: 3
9th: 6
8th: 3
7th: 5
6th: 5
...Why can't we have more novices like this?

First, good man. You've recognised you must be doing something wrong and you've presented us with some meaningful information which we can hopefully use to solve this.

In 34 single table tournaments you've gone home 6th-10th in 22; 65% of the time you're out before the game has really started. Yes, as vitaltilt pointed out, you need to book several hundred before you can make accurate assessments but even a small sample like this is enough to spot trends. You're going to have spells where the coinflips just don't go with you or you don't get cards and they suck, but you can still give yourself the best chance possible to be there at the end.

In the early rounds of the tournament blinds are low and the expected reward is likewise low. Its very easy to bust yourself out here, but hard to build a big stack. I suspect you're playing too many hands in the early stages and would suggest tightening up considerably. In particular save your coin flips for later in the tournament when the blinds are big and you're feeling pressure from them.

Being there when there are only 5 guys left is worth far more than having 3000 chips at the start. So limit your raising hands to AA-TT, AK-AJ and maybe KQs. As a rule you don't want to be open limping with anything, but with a few guys limping in front of you add suited aces and pocket pairs. These are the few hands you can win a big pot with safely. With your suited aces you're looking to hit the flush (which will usually be the nuts) and with your pairs a set (which is likewise, huge). If you miss with these hands dump them. Even if you hit an A with say, A5s, you'll only get action if there's a bigger ace out there.

You don't want to be getting involved against a raiser with anything but a premium hand. if you wouldn't raise it you shouldn't call a raiser with it. I'd shy away from anything below AA-JJ, AK/AQ against a raiser early in the tournament, and often you want to reraise these hands (we're now beyond the realm of hand selection and getting into specific hand situations, you'll find a few of these discussed in other threads here which should hopefully be of use to you).

As the tournament progresses you should look to playing more hands and playing more aggressively, experience will hopefully help you learn when to time your acceleration, but for the most part (as with most games) you want to focus on good fundamentals. Once you have those down pat adding fancy plays and the like will become far more lucrative.

If I've missed anything I apologise, its early and for some reason the council are digging up the road outside my flat in a very noisy manner, someone will correct me if needs be

good luck,

Kc
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Old Mar 06, 2005, 1:09pm   #5
MT
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Quote:
Coin Flips: 16
won: 4
lost: 12
If I were to flip a coin right now and got these same results (or close to it), ie... heads or tails being flipped 3X more than the other one... I really wouldnt be that suprised.

12 coin flips is nothing.... Just keep working bro, i'm sure over time your good play will be rewarded and the stats will work themselves out.

I have worked in gaming in the past. One day I saw red hit about 28 times in a row at the roulette table. Anything is possible, but spin that ball enough times those 28 in a row mean jack squat.

cheers,
MT.
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Old Mar 07, 2005, 7:13am   #6
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Wow, great post kc --- i've copied it for reference (just letting you know). However, I'd like to ask a follow up, lol.

You mention no "open limping" during the early stages, but what about small/mid pocket pairs? Or is the set potential diminished in early position? And by "set potentioal" I mean the pot one would win if they flopped a set.

Just curious, thanks in advance.
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Old Mar 07, 2005, 11:36am   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vitaltilt
Wow, great post kc --- i've copied it for reference (just letting you know). However, I'd like to ask a follow up, lol.

You mention no "open limping" during the early stages, but what about small/mid pocket pairs? Or is the set potential diminished in early position? And by "set potentioal" I mean the pot one would win if they flopped a set.

Just curious, thanks in advance.
This is a tight one.

I sometimes do it and I probably wouldn't fault anyone for doing it, but you're inviting a world of pain You can get raised by a player behind you, otoh you can aid to a cascade of calls which gives you enormous implied odds.

In a tournament, especially early, I would err on the side of conservative caution (as opposed to radical fundamentist caution) and probably muck em.

The most useful thing you can do in the early stages of a tournament is watch the other guys and see what you can learn about them for when the action gets chunkier. To quote my hero Dave the Clock, "this is just messing about really".

Kc
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Old Mar 07, 2005, 12:45pm   #8
Iestyn75
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I may be a touch over-conservative early in SNGs, but quite early on in my poker life, I set myself the target of never going out in 10th or 9th. Having seen some truly awful play at the buy-ins I can afford (nothing higher than a $10+1 tourny), I've realised that a watching brief early on is by far the best policy. That's not to say that I won't play a premium hand if I'm dealt one, but I'm cautious to the extent that Kc has eloquently expressed above. And on the whole it works. A tight table image is very valuable later on - at a MTT it has limited value because you can be moved at no notice. But at SNGs if you win the hands you play early on, people take note.

BTW, for MT who saw 28 reds hit in a row, I once saw (and, fortunately, was betting) 24 black hit 4 times in a row!!
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Old Mar 07, 2005, 3:03pm   #9
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you shouldn't hit blacks, its racist.

Kc
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