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Old Mar 27, 2005, 1:11pm   #1
AJDMB05
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Default Two hands up for critique.

So I'm playing my usual $2 + $.25 SNGs when on the third hand with blinds of $10/$15 and me not having played a hand with $1,500 chips, I pick up Q-Q in about MP (9 person table). Three callers before me, so I raise to $75, since I don't really want a 5 way pot here. The button calls, the BB min. re-raises to $150 (A-K, I'm thinking) and EP and EP+2 call his re-raise.

I wanna end this now, and I know no one has a higher pair, so I move all in 10x the re-raise for $1,500. The button calls me, which I didn't like, and the BB with A-K calls. Sure enough, he flips over A-K, and the button flipped over A-10. I've got the button covered by $700 and the BB covered by $30. Great, so I'm a 56/33/8 favorite with $4,010 in the pot, right?

Nope, naturally I wouldn't be writing the story unless I lost, and he did hit his 5-outer on the river with an ace. I think I pushed them too hard, considering how many people could've had K-K or A-A, even though I thought I had the best hand which I did. And of course I considering losing an 8-1 favorite hand at the turn to be a bad beat, though some argue you take away any odds but the pre-flop ones by moving in then.

Any ideas? The other hand is shorter, and it's pretty simple.

We've got a maniac at seat one, moving all in and collecting blinds for the first few hands, when I pick up Q-Q in the SB. He moves in, and the button calls. Normally I would call here since the maniac has nothing and the button is just trying to get this crazy ass out of here, but I had just lost with this hand before and it was only a few minutes into this one, so I wanted to pick a better spot and folded (I would've called if the button hadn't).

EP+1 called as well, with A-K. The button had 7-7 and the maniac had Q-8. I'm not too experienced with odds like this in 4-way pots but apparently I was an underdog pre-flop to the A-K, 34 to 38, so I guess I made the right move, but I wonder if anyone would have taken their chances on losing another multi-way race with the same hand they just lost with?

Oh, and the board came 4c 2c Jh 6c 2h, so I would've won, but eh.
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Old Mar 27, 2005, 3:06pm   #2
ripwalk
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Someone more experienced with odds can correct me, but I do believe in that second you would have been a favorite, since you've already got a made pair.

Basically any card for you that isn't a 7, A, or K is an out, so you have a lot more outs than the rest of them, and therefore I think you would be a slight favorite.
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Old Mar 27, 2005, 3:11pm   #3
ripwalk
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Actually, I just ran this through the hand simulator (as it appears you did too) and A-K is a slight favorite. That's surprising to me. Can anyone explain why A-K is a favorite to QQ in this 4 handed pot, but heads up QQ is much favored??

I assume it has to do with the fact that one out, the other Q in the Q8 hand is gone, But still, am I not correct in saying that any card that isn't an A,K, 7 or 8 is an out for the QQ hand, and therefore it does in fact have more outs??
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Old Mar 27, 2005, 6:06pm   #4
AJDMB05
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I'm pretty sure it's because the odds of no 7, Ace or King showing up over five cards is pretty low (about 34%), and after the flop I would've rightfully been the favorite with the made hand.

Q-Q is slightly better than even money over A-K heads up, and take into account the fact that if a seven, ace or king falls, then I've got one remaining out barring some insane flop like A-K-J.

I guess I -did- make the right move on hand 2 after thinking about it.
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Old Mar 28, 2005, 12:47pm   #5
fiezk
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The odds change slightly due to another player allready having a queen.
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