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Old Feb 25, 2006, 11:51pm   #1
Dootch
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Default Hand analysis of great play with QQ

I'm not sure if this belongs here or in the No limit forum, but there is a story element so I'll put it here.

After doing badly in the pokerstars VIP tourneys this morning I decided to play some shorthand. I don't normally play shorthand but I wanted some action. I started off really well, doubling up on some idiot. I think the players are a lot worse in shorthand, they seem to call large bets with quite shit hands.

I played for a while and had was up only about $50 when this hand happened.

PokerStars Game #4096115039: Hold'em No Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2006/02/25 - 17:04:24 (ET)
Table 'Georgia II' Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: DootchMaN ($100 in chips)
Seat 2: molswi47 ($132.70 in chips)
Seat 3: norgaard88 ($6 in chips)
Seat 4: JacksmyName ($146.55 in chips)
Seat 5: Tiegs7 ($76.75 in chips)
Seat 6: Milamber70 ($19.15 in chips)
norgaard88: posts small blind $0.50
JacksmyName: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to DootchMaN [Qd Qs]
Tiegs7: calls $1
Milamber70: folds
DootchMaN: raises $3 to $4
molswi47: calls $4
norgaard88: folds
JacksmyName: folds
Tiegs7: folds

I make the obvious raise here. Molswi47 is a very aggressive player, and likes to come over the top a lot.

*** FLOP *** [8d 3s Kh]
DootchMaN: bets $7
molswi47: raises $16 to $23

Obviously I don't like that King on the flop, however I have to bet anyway since he could have a lot of hands that I beat here.

When I made the bet, I had a feeling that there was a good chance he would raise me. Sure enough he raised me. When I get feelings like this and the player does as I expect, I assign a higher chance that they are bluffing.

He made roughly a pot sized raise, which gives me 2-1 on my money. He has to be bluffing 1 in 3 times for me to call this. It actually has to be slightly more than that, as he may be bluffing but still outdraw me. I also assign a higher chance that he is

bluffing because he knows that if I call here, I almost definately have a King. (there are no draws). However this worked against him as well as I knew that he either had a king or I was a solid favourite. (He most likely would have just called with a set, but obviously I can't completely rule it out)

I think for a bit and decide that he is bluffing at least 1 in 3 times here, so I call. Also, the texture of the flop means that he will probably not bet again on the turn unless he has balls of steel, a set or a king. To bet on the turn, he would have to put about a $20-$40 bet in, which is tough to do with absolutely nothing.

DootchMaN: calls $16
*** TURN *** [8d 3s Kh] [5s]
DootchMaN: checks
molswi47: checks

I check, obviously I'm not sure that he doesn't have the king. Betting here will get called when he does, and he will fold when he doesn't. There are no obvious draws, so at most I am giving him a shot at 5 outs, but more likely he either has a lower pair (2 outs), or he might have an ace (3 outs). He might also have no outs.

He checks, he doesn't want to put a big bet in with a card to come after I called his raise on the flop (he is probably thinking now that I have AK or KQ).

After he checks the turn, I am pretty sure I have the best hand.

*** RIVER *** [8d 3s Kh 5s] [Js]
DootchMaN: checks
molswi47: bets $52
DootchMaN: calls $52

This is an excellent situation for me to induce a bluff. I haven't put any money in the pot since I called his raise (so I have shown weakness), and that Jack probably wouldn't have made him a better hand. Also, seeing as though he is an aggressive player, he is more likely than usual to bluff. So I check.

When he does bet, the bet is bigger than a value bet would be, which also indicates a bluff, so I call instantly.

Obviously a raise on the river here would be a huge mistake, since he would call when he has me beaten, and fold when he doesn't.

*** SHOW DOWN ***
molswi47: shows [Ac Qh] (high card Ace)
DootchMaN: shows [Qd Qs] (a pair of Queens)
DootchMaN collected $157.50 from pot

I was right, and I rake in a nice pot. By not betting the turn or river, I made an extra $50 profit from the hand.

Afterwards, he said something along the lines of "dumb fish can't put down queens", which just made me laugh.
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Old Feb 26, 2006, 11:15am   #2
owl
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Nice post and a nice deductive play. Familiar situations rise ever so often, and I agree with your way of thinking. Ignore his fish remark.



Keep it up.
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Old Feb 27, 2006, 4:16am   #3
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lol. I love it wen people neva accept that they made mistakes. idiots. I always get the "u fish".. eve though though had middle pair and I was looking for a open ended straight flush.

Nice hand.
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Old Feb 27, 2006, 3:15pm   #4
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That was a really good play. Thanks for posting that. One of the stickiest situations I can find myself in is QQ running into a single overcard on the board and I get raised.

The thing I find difficult is determining whether or not they are bluffing. I figure if someone re-raises with a king on board, it's a way to protect their hand, and push out something like QQ.

I just wish you posted this hand earlier, because I was in this SAME EXACT SITUATION yesterday, and I folded my queens. The guy I was playing said he held 3,9o but I don't believe him.

So far I've found that the minimum raise means they have the overcard, a 3-4x raise is a bluff.

Also, the fish comment was great. Someone said that to me last week after I slowplayed them a set of 3's vs QQ unimproved. It was great.
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Old Feb 27, 2006, 10:58pm   #5
Dootch
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thx for the replies.

Quote:
The thing I find difficult is determining whether or not they are bluffing. I figure if someone re-raises with a king on board, it's a way to protect their hand, and push out something like QQ.
If you hold the king, and you're pretty sure the other person has a queen, you would want to call rather than raise. This is because they are drawing to only 2 outs, so you don't really need to protect your hand. Plus you can usually get another smallish bet out of them on the river, or they might think they have the best hand and bet again.

Quote:
So far I've found that the minimum raise means they have the overcard, a 3-4x raise is a bluff.
Hmm I try to stay away from dangerous generalisations like this. It is all so player dependant.

thx again for your replies, I hope this post clarifies things a bit more, and I'm glad you found it helpful
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