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Jul 28, 2006, 5:44pm

#1

Brunson
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Virginia Beach
Posts: 179
Reputation: 0

Proper way to figure pot odds???
This is essentially what i have learned, be it right or wrong on figuring pot odds:
number of outs x 2 + 1 = percentage to make that hand
number of cards left in deck unseen (47 after the flop) (46 for the turn) (45 for river) / percentage to make hand = odds to make the hand
amount of money in pot / bet amount to be called = pot odds
if the odds to make that hand, is greater than the odds i'm getting in the pot then i have to call.
Example:
two spades in the hole with two spades on flop.
47/19=2.47
bet to me is $30 in a $100 pot. i'm getting over 3 to 1 on my money with a hand that's 2.47 to 1 to make it so i have to call.

is this right? do i have all the facts straight? let me know if there's a faster way to do it please. thanks!



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Jul 28, 2006, 5:51pm

#2

will invade Europe.
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Peoria, AZ
Posts: 1,265
Reputation: 159

Re: Proper way to figure pot odds???
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1idjack
Example:
two spades in the hole with two spades on flop.
47/19=2.47
bet to me is $30 in a $100 pot. i'm getting over 3 to 1 on my money with a hand that's 2.47 to 1 to make it so i have to call.

is this right? do i have all the facts straight? let me know if there's a faster way to do it please. thanks!

the biggest problem you're having is that there are 9 flush outs not 19...therefore: 47/9= 5.2:1 about 19%
the pot is offering you 13:3 ($100+$30): $30
or 4.3:1
so in this case your pot odds do not justify a call...but as many times as i've screwed up in the last couple of days i could be wrong
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Jul 28, 2006, 7:02pm

#3

Brunson
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Virginia Beach
Posts: 179
Reputation: 0

Re: Proper way to figure pot odds???
Quote:
Originally Posted by zolaboy
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1idjack
Example:
two spades in the hole with two spades on flop.
47/19=2.47
bet to me is $30 in a $100 pot. i'm getting over 3 to 1 on my money with a hand that's 2.47 to 1 to make it so i have to call.

is this right? do i have all the facts straight? let me know if there's a faster way to do it please. thanks!

the biggest problem you're having is that there are 9 flush outs not 19...therefore: 47/9= 5.2:1 about 19%
the pot is offering you 13:3 ($100+$30): $30
or 4.3:1
so in this case your pot odds do not justify a call...but as many times as i've screwed up in the last couple of days i could be wrong

No, what i was saying is there there are 9 flush outs. to figure % to make hand, take number of outs x 2 and add 1 (9x2+1=19) 19%
then to calculate the ODDS to make that hand, divide 47 by 19 (47/19=2.47) 2.47:1. Which means i'll hit it once every 2.47 times, no?
then compare the odds to make hand to odds being offered in the pot.
3.33:1 in the pot on my money vs. 2.47:1 that i'll make the flush.
I'm no pro, but I think i've been playing long enough to remember there's only 13 of every suit



Jul 28, 2006, 7:09pm

#4

will invade Europe.
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Peoria, AZ
Posts: 1,265
Reputation: 159

Re: Proper way to figure pot odds???
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1idjack
No, what i was saying is there there are 9 flush outs. to figure % to make hand, take number of outs x 2 and add 1 (9x2+1=19) 19%
then to calculate the ODDS to make that hand, divide 47 by 19 (47/19=2.47) 2.47:1. Which means i'll hit it once every 2.47 times, no?
then compare the odds to make hand to odds being offered in the pot.
3.33:1 in the pot on my money vs. 2.47:1 that i'll make the flush.
I'm no pro, but I think i've been playing long enough to remember there's only 13 of every suit

didn't figure you thought there were 23 but you never know!
you're actually adding a step...a quick way to do it at the table is number of outs x 2 +1, so for the flush draw:
9x2+1= roughly 19% chance of hitting your hand (which = 4:1)
you don't have to figure the percentage and ratio separately...they are different ways of expressing the same value...2.47:1 is about 40%...does that make a bit more sense?
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Jul 28, 2006, 7:16pm

#5

The Dark Knight
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Norway
Posts: 3,568
Reputation: 42

I am just dropping by to state the obvious just in case. Just because someone has bet to you and you have odds to call, calling is not necessarily the best move. You can also semibluff.
You may roll your eyes and shake your heads now and proceed.



Jul 28, 2006, 8:09pm

#6

Brunson
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Virginia Beach
Posts: 179
Reputation: 0

Re: Proper way to figure pot odds???
Quote:
Originally Posted by zolaboy
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1idjack
No, what i was saying is there there are 9 flush outs. to figure % to make hand, take number of outs x 2 and add 1 (9x2+1=19) 19%
then to calculate the ODDS to make that hand, divide 47 by 19 (47/19=2.47) 2.47:1. Which means i'll hit it once every 2.47 times, no?
then compare the odds to make hand to odds being offered in the pot.
3.33:1 in the pot on my money vs. 2.47:1 that i'll make the flush.
I'm no pro, but I think i've been playing long enough to remember there's only 13 of every suit

didn't figure you thought there were 23 but you never know!
you're actually adding a step...a quick way to do it at the table is number of outs x 2 +1, so for the flush draw:
9x2+1= roughly 19% chance of hitting your hand (which = 4:1)
you don't have to figure the percentage and ratio separately...they are different ways of expressing the same value...2.47:1 is about 40%...does that make a bit more sense?

wait a sec,
you're quoting what i said verbatim about the % calculations.
but as far as converting the % into odds, i thought the formula was (number of unseen cards / % to hit the flush)



Jul 28, 2006, 10:02pm

#7

Grinder
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: World, 2nd to the left.
Posts: 850
Reputation: 15

just chipping in :
Here it is:
Conversion => Equation
"1 in X" and "X to 1" => Subtract or add one ("1 in 3" = "2 to 1")
Prob and % => Probability times 100 = % OR % divided by 100 = Probability
"1 in X" to % => Onehundred divided by X = Percentage
"1 in X" to Prob => One divided by X = the Probability
% to "1 in X" => Onehundred divided by the % will give you the X in "1 in X"
Prob to "1 in X" => One divided by the probabilty will give you the X in "1 in X"
"X to 1" to % => Add one to X, then onehundred divided by that number = Percentage
"X to 1" to Prob => Add one to X, then one divided by that number = Probability
% to "X to 1" => Onehundred divided by the %, then subtract 1, will give you the X in "X to 1"
Prob to "X to 1" => One divided by the probability, then subtract 1, will give you the X in "X to 1"
***********************************************
Definitions
"1 in X"  This is the most practical application while sitting at a table. If you have 1 card in the deck that'll save you, and 46 cards are remaining in the deck, it'd be a "1 in 46" chance. Meaning you have one out from X number of chances. It's really a fraction sideways: 7/8ths is the same as "7 in 8". So "1 in 2" would be a 50% chance or a "1 to 1" chance.
"X to 1"  This is very commonly used in holdem books. If you are in a situation where you'll win 1/3rd of the time, and the other 2/3rds you lose, you have a "2 to 1" chance of winning. So "4 to 1" would be the same as a 20% chance or a "1 in 5" chance". Sometimes worded like "2 to 1 against".
"Percentage"  This is a widely accepted form that is difficult to calculate at the table in most cases. A 4% chance of winning is the same as a "1 in 25" chance or "24 to 1".
"Probability"  To do basic math with probalities it needs to be in this form. Also, if you calculate the chance of an event occuring using algrebra, it will come out in this form. It is simply the pecentage chance divided by 100 with no % sign. So a 25% chance is the same as a probability of .25, and 100% is a probability of 1.0 .
******************************
So: 19% is converted: 100/19 = 5.2  1 = 4.2 => 4 to 1
TR
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Jul 29, 2006, 1:44am

#8

Doyle Lookalike
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 411
Reputation: 10

Quote:
Originally Posted by 1idjack
but as far as converting the % into odds, i thought the formula was (number of unseen cards / % to hit the flush)

No, as described above, this is incorrect. A percentage is just a different way of expressing odds. 19% is your chance to hit. To express this as odds, think of it this way  19% means that 19 times out of 100 you hit. So 19 times hit, 81 times miss. As odds this is expressed as 81:19 which is about 4:1.
This can also be shown by directly calculating the odds: 47 unseen cards, 9 of which will make your flush. So 38 cards miss, 9 hit  the odds of making your flush (on the turn) are 38:9 against, which again is about 4:1.
I find it much easier to just use odds and forget about percentages. Instead of working them out each time though, just write them down. Here are the most common odds with associated outs. The change from the turn to the river is not significant, so use these to hit on the next card.
2 outs  22:1
3 outs  14.5:1
4 outs  10.5:1
6 outs  7:1
7 outs  6:1
8 outs  5:1
9 outs  4:1
12 outs  3:1
You will soon remember the most common ones (such as flush draw), so all you have to do is work out the pot odds. Simply divide the current pot as it stands by the amount you need to call. Pot is $36, you need to call $6, pot odds are 6:1. Don't add the amount you need to call to the pot. So as you can see from the figures above, if you were getting 6:1 odds, you could call with 7 outs or more (not including implied odds, which is a whole nuther chapter )
Hope this helps.
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