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Old May 25, 2007, 1:01am   #41
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So the bottom line is you need him to have something other than AA only 40% of the time. Basically any range other than "AA only" is sufficient to call/push and only if you put him exactly on AA do you fold. Even if your range was AA,AK with the fact that you have two kings, AK is still more likely than AA (I know you don't consider AK likely, the point is just that even with two kings out AK,AA is a sufficiently "loose" range to call). This makes sense - the math is not really that critical and this situation is not that bizzare - in general if you can put your opponent exactly on AA you could find a fold for KK and if can put them on any wider range you can't fold. The "don't fold KK" rule of thumb makes sense in this light.

Now to your question, I'm pretty sure at my level (100 NL - occasional shot at 200 NL) I can't close the range down to AA - I believe I will see AK and QQ here. Froboy's range would have been my guess as well. I don't have 600 NL experience.

Anyone know how to filter PT on opponents raises preflop? I looked around and can't figure out how to see what my 100 NL opponents 4-bet range really is, so my range guess above is just a gut feeling.
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Old May 25, 2007, 1:37am   #42
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Originally Posted by Boilermaker View Post
So the bottom line is you need him to have something other than AA only 40% of the time. Basically any range other than "AA only" is sufficient to call/push and only if you put him exactly on AA do you fold.

(Right about the % of the time he has something else, but to clarify on the second sentence, I only have to say he has something other than AA more than 40% of the time for the fold to be incorrect. I don't have to say 'he has AA 100% of the time' to fold here, if that is what you were saying.)


Even if your range was AA,AK with the fact that you have two kings, AK is still more likely than AA (I know you don't consider AK likely, the point is just that even with two kings out AK,AA is a sufficiently "loose" range to call).

(AK may still be the more likely hand based purely on the odds of the hand being dealt out of the known deck - aka the 'Pokerstove' numbers - but you have to adjust to which is more likely based on the play of your opponent. I see people making a play like this, and 3 out of 4 times it's AA or KK, the other times being composed of things like AK/QQ/JJ(maybe). If you agree with me that 3 of 4 times people make this play it's AA/KK, then, if you ignore the possibility of KK for a very rare tie, the fold is correct. Also, the presence of two kings in my hand does reduce the likelihood that he has AK, which affects the composition of the odds in the part of his range that I beat, but that's another matter).


This makes sense - the math is not really that critical and this situation is not that bizzare - in general if you can put your opponent exactly on AA you could find a fold for KK and if can put them on any wider range you can't fold. The "don't fold KK" rule of thumb makes sense in this light.

(Yes, it is still the case that, if you had to choose one rule for how to play KK preflop against a shove, never folding it is the best rule (versus, say, always fold to a 4-bet). But, the point of the discussion now is that I've run the numbers, and if you agree with the assumption I've made, then you only need him to have AA somewhere around 62% of the time in this spot for it to be a profitable fold against an unknown opponent at these stakes etc. It could be more or less in other spots. That's why we're into a discussion about how often a 4-bet is AA/KK versus some other hand, mitigated by the fact that the original raiser is pushing into 2 players etc.)

Now to your question, I'm pretty sure at my level (100 NL - occasional shot at 200 NL) I can't close the range down to AA - I believe I will see AK and QQ here. Froboy's range would have been my guess as well. I don't have 600 NL experience.

(I agree that maybe this can't be done at lower stakes - or at much higher stakes, in the first case because unknown players must be assumed to be more foolhardly than in midstakes games, and in the second case because our assumption about unknown players is that they are naturally more TAG than TP/LP -more aggression means a wider range of 4-bet shoving. It is a question about assumptions we make for unknown players - this hand would be far more certain if I had a read on him.
Concerning the range itself, the point is that you don't have to close the range to exactly AA. This point is frustrating me I admit - on the one hand, everyone says 'well, there's all these hands in his range that you beat, and only AA beats you', but then don't acknowledge that he doesn't have to have JUST AA as his range for the fold to be reasonable! If his range was just AA, that is saying he has AA 100% of the time. All I assumed was that, of the times he has AA/KK (which I thought to be around 3/4 of the time in such a spot), we can treat it as if he has AA every time of those times. Obviously, I could factor in more complicated issues, such as the split against an unlikely case KK hand, or on the other hand, the chance that Eddie is sandbagging AA here and I'm getting trapped in a virtual no-win spot. But all I've said is the original raiser needs to have AA around 62% of the time - in other words, his 'range' is weighted 62% to the hand that beats me, and 38% to the hands that I beat - for the fold to be correct. This is not saying 'his range is AA'.
I know this sounds like I'm just raving mad in defending my point, but regardless of whether anyone ever thinks to fold KK preflop in a cash game or not, I would like it to at least be entertained that he does not have to have AA some absurdly high % of the time that my fold is essentially saying he has AA for sure.)

Anyone know how to filter PT on opponents raises preflop? I looked around and can't figure out how to see what my 100 NL opponents 4-bet range really is, so my range guess above is just a gut feeling.

(Everyone's '4-bet range' in this thread is a gut feeling for the most part. I don't have pure stats showing around 3 of 4 times someone 4-bet shoves that they have AA or KK. I just don't see it happening all that often than unknown players are shoving in with AK or QQ/JJ in this spot. There is literature I'm sure that will discuss this, but even then it's still subjective. That said, i'm not saying either that it NEVER happens that someone has something other than AA/KK here - I'm saying that it happens only so much as to make up about 1 in 4 times they 4-bet).
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Oh, and obviously, TWLLM, we'd all rather you just ruled with an iron fist of nittiness and made all decisions without consultation, but that goes without saying, right?
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Old May 25, 2007, 1:50am   #43
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I just wanted to thank everyone for putting in the effort to discuss this after everything that I did to mess up the thread at the start.


I was getting the impression that people think I'm pissed off if they don't agree with me. That isn't the case - it'd be pretty boring around here if everyone says simply 'yes, fold, nh'. As long as I see we're disagreeing about something, and something material, I think it's a good strategy thread. And I know I'm not exactly taking up the easiest argument by saying that KK can be folded preflop in a cash game.

Think about it this way: I always get pissed off at people posting hands that have no strategic content as 'strategy' because there is nothing to discuss. For instance, you have AA preflop in a cash game, you are able to get it all-in preflop, you make the most +EV play, but then you lose when your opponent spikes a set. For me, I don't have a natural problem with bad beat threads, and so that isn't why I get mad at supposed strategy - I just get mad when bad beats are disguised as strategy - the key being that I want to have threads where the answer isn't automatic and obvious, like it would be for the theoretical AA hand.

And, of course, like most decisions that are debatable, this one isn't going to yeild instant and huge changes in EV. I totally agree with Skeptix there. AA vs KK isn't the most common spot for a confrontation (it's not as likely to come up as, say, a coinflip situation), and obviously I'm not saying fold KK every time you get 3-bet with it (far from it!) or even when you get 4-bet with it. But stirring up a little thought and a little controversy is always fun and useful.
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Oh, and obviously, TWLLM, we'd all rather you just ruled with an iron fist of nittiness and made all decisions without consultation, but that goes without saying, right?
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Old May 25, 2007, 2:24am   #44
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I do get what you mean about the range not needing to be only AA. What I was trying to say is that if you knew for a single specific player that they would play AA and any other hand the same way here, then that would be enough to call - even if that hand was AK with 2 kings out. However, maybe 50% of unknown players have a 4-bet range of AA only and maybe 30% are KK+ and maybe 20% are QQ+,AK so that you end up with a fractional range (100% * AA + 50% * KK + 20% * QQ,AK). (and also maybe a single player always plays AA this way and only overplays QQ this way half the time to mix things up). So a helpful question is what percentage of unknown players would have a range greater than AA here? Probably you need only around 20% of opponents to have a wider range to get up to 40% of hands. Is that likely the case at 600 NL? - I have no idea.

EDIT: the 20% guess is based on the assumption that the wider range is QQ+,AK where QQ and AK would be about twice as likely.

Last edited by Boilermaker; May 25, 2007 at 2:27am.
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Old May 25, 2007, 2:43am   #45
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My assumption at the time was that unknown players rarely make this type of move without AA/KK. The idea that 3 out of 4 times they have AA/KK already takes into consideration that some players have a wider range than others. My 3/4 approximation is already a simplification of a 'fractured range' as you had, because everyone either does, or does not, push with less than AA/KK here (that's a logical truism), and further, how often they push with or without certain hands here differs between opponents as well. I'm already making assumptions about the 'unknown player' that include some who will push less than AA/KK here, and some who won't, and some who always do one or the other, and some who go back and forth between them.

Obviously, I may be wrong about the 3/4 approximation. Maybe it's more like 2/3, in which case, it's far more marginal. And it's something like 1/2 the time it's AA/KK I have to call. But the fact you question is already taken into consideration (and at the time I made the call).
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Oh, and obviously, TWLLM, we'd all rather you just ruled with an iron fist of nittiness and made all decisions without consultation, but that goes without saying, right?
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Old May 25, 2007, 2:50am   #46
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Originally Posted by Boilermaker View Post
I do get what you mean about the range not needing to be only AA. What I was trying to say is that if you knew for a single specific player that they would play AA and any other hand the same way here, then that would be enough to call - even if that hand was AK with 2 kings out. However, maybe 50% of unknown players have a 4-bet range of AA only and maybe 30% are KK+ and maybe 20% are QQ+,AK so that you end up with a fractional range (100% * AA + 50% * KK + 20% * QQ,AK). (and also maybe a single player always plays AA this way and only overplays QQ this way half the time to mix things up). So a helpful question is what percentage of unknown players would have a range greater than AA here? Probably you need only around 20% of opponents to have a wider range to get up to 40% of hands. Is that likely the case at 600 NL? - I have no idea.

EDIT: the 20% guess is based on the assumption that the wider range is QQ+,AK where QQ and AK would be about twice as likely.
This is pretty much the crux of the entire thread. Your numbers also appear to be pulled at random, fwiw. It's probably more of a feel thing than anything else. Feel free to correct me.
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Old May 25, 2007, 6:15am   #47
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Even I'm beginning to lose track of all the different numbers we can use to evaluate this hand.
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Originally Posted by DoubleU
Oh, and obviously, TWLLM, we'd all rather you just ruled with an iron fist of nittiness and made all decisions without consultation, but that goes without saying, right?
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Old May 25, 2007, 11:27am   #48
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This is pretty much the crux of the entire thread. Your numbers also appear to be pulled at random, fwiw. It's probably more of a feel thing than anything else. Feel free to correct me.
Oh, the numbers definitely were pulled at random - I wasn't proposing that split up of the range as applicable to this hand; I was just giving an example. My gut instinct (based mostly on 100 NL) would be to call and that they wouldn't have AA 60% of the time but I can't really argue with TWLLM about whether this is true at 600 NL - if he's sure they have AA >60% of the time then the fold makes sense (assuming also that the 88 guy would definitely fold to a push)
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