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Old Jul 02, 2007, 1:25pm   #1
1idjack
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Default Live game - hand question

i have a question about a hand i played in a live game this past weekend.

First a little back story:

I play in a pub league that has a final monthly tourney. 1st place is $1600 paid out to 8th place.

It was a 3 table 24 man tourney and there were about 12 players left. the blinds were 1000/2000 and i had roughly 20000 in chips. 6 players at my table. i was in the cutoff and the table folded to me where i picked up QT of diamonds. the button was a decent player and but fairly tight. SB is weak/tight and the BB is aggro. i made it 6K to go. the Button and SB folded and the BB called. flop was ragged. i don't really remember what it was, but i had a diamond draw and two overs for 15 outs. the BB bet 8K and had another 15 or so behind him. so i'm faced with a dilemma. if i fold, i have 7BB left and 4 players to get through before i get ITM. i can't just flat call and fold on the turn if it's a blank. he kept blabbering on about his hand (he's pretty cocky/over confident) and was going on and on about his gutshot and how he paired the board. i was pretty sure he was telling the truth, because i'd seen him do it before. i figured that i had 15 outs and it was either fold and pray that i could gain chips later (doubtful since i would only have 7BB left, or shove and double up right there if what he was telling me was the truth and hit my draw. so i shove he calls and turns over what he said he had middle pair and a gutshot. the river gave me my T to win the hand.

here's my question (i know i got lucky in the hand and it was probably donkish at some point or another) if i have 15 outs after the flop and i was trying to calulate my pecentage to hit, following the rule of 4 and 2, that's ~ 60% to hit by the river. is that correct? i know that with a lot of outs, the rule of 4 and 2 breaks down, but 60% sounds rather high. it's one of the reasons why i shoved. high percentage to hit + doubling up vs. folding and being forced to put my chips in later with a weaker hand.

was this correct and what about the rule of 4 and 2 in this situation?

FWIW, i ended up heads up with the villian. i was slightly behind his chip lead. 2nd place paid $500 and we decided to chop right there since there was such a huge discrepancy between 1st and 2nd. at that point i didn't care picked up KT shoved it in and he called with AK. i ended up winning $1000 and he picked up $1100. that's probably my biggest win to date. thanks for reading.
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Old Jul 02, 2007, 1:42pm   #2
KHSPoker21
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Shove pre-flop, you can't afford to raise 3 BB's pre-flop with only 10 BB's in your stack.

As played, it's an easy call with a diamond draw and two overs with only 7BB left.

I think
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Old Jul 02, 2007, 2:15pm   #3
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Yes this is a call. Your odds estimate does overestimate things with this many outs, but its not bad. You are probably closer to a 53/47 favorite.
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Old Jul 02, 2007, 3:53pm   #4
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One other way in that you're overestimating your outs is the chance that you'll hit and still loose. You'll be good if your flush hits, but the overcards might still allow your opponent to beat you with his gutshot, trips or two-pair. So always take that into account when your odds dictate very marginal decisions. You're obviously overestimating things by assuming that any of those 15 cards will make you take the pot.
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