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Old Dec 03, 2007, 10:43pm   #61
Frogboy4L
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You're not trying to do what's most profitable; you're trying to minimize your risk. You're not approaching this with a "how do I make the most money?" but rather "how do I lose the least?" That probably needs to change.
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Old Dec 04, 2007, 5:50pm   #62
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Chrissy in your last post you have realised

a) you need to be willing to gamble in the right spots
b) that you are playing scared at your current stakes

Already these are good realisations so you can improve from here . Try playing at lower stakes and opening up a little bit. As Gus and many others have said on this forum you should be taking 5 BI swings in your stride and be prepared for a lot worse.
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Old Dec 04, 2007, 6:16pm   #63
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You have to have absolutely no regard for the money you are playing with. If at any point the action you take at the poker table has any thing to do with trying to minimize your loses, then you have already lost. Once I have chips in front of me, I forget how much it cost to get them there (I find it a lot easier to do in a tournament since in a cash game you are constantly reminded of how much money you have in front of you since ever $1 on the table is actually worth that in real life).

I personally play better when a large portion of my bankroll is on the line, as I get all jacked up on brain juice and pay attention to what is going on about 10x more then normal. I don't however have any regard for losing. I will gladly get it all in pre-flop with pocket kings (tournament player here) in the first round of the tournament if I think it will get me closer to the win then folding them would. The reason for this is I did not invest more money into poker then I could afford to lose with out giving it a second thought.

I know you are probably thinking, "Yeah but you probably don't give money much respect in real life like I do." Couldn't be more wrong. I am the cheapest person that I have ever met. My own family refers to me as "The Jew". The only time I spend money is when it is someones birthday or at Christmas, otherwise I pinch every penny to the point of it almost being OCD. Seems like a oxymoron, a cheap person playing a game that takes a total disregard for money. To me it is a release from all the times there was something that I wanted and talked my self out of because the money would be better off in my retirement account. I also have the benefit of not relying on my poker winnings to pay any bills. I think if you drop down to a level that you have no problems losing 20-100 buyins at, you would be better off.

[sorry I kind of rambled there]
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Old Dec 06, 2007, 11:41pm   #64
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I don't know if this has been discussed already, and I don't think it applies directly to this situation (because of the presence of the third player who makes pushing so much better), but there are some situations where if you know your opponent will put all his money on on the river un-improved, that you can wait till the river to make the big bet in hopes of getting away when your opponent hits.

Mathematically, waiting till the river in this hypothetical situation is MUCH better than pushing on the turn. If you push $1100 with a 80% chance of winning vs pushing the river when he misses and folding when he hits, the calculations are:

EV(waiting) = 0*.20 + $1100*.8 = +$880
EV(pushing) = -$1100*.20 + $1100*.8 = +$660


So you're saving $220 by waiting. This is a hard situation to get in real life, since they probably fold the river when they don't hit, or you won't know for sure that they hit, etc. And in the given example, the third player being on a flush draw makes pushing so much better as he won't pay off when he misses.
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Old Dec 06, 2007, 11:46pm   #65
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ImAllInNow View Post
EV(waiting) = 0*.20 + $1100*.8 = +$880
EV(pushing) = -$1100*.20 + $1100*.8 = +$660
This should be (p = current pot size):

EV(waiting) = 0*.20 + ($1100+p)*.8 = +$880 + 0.8p
EV(pushing) = -$1100*.20 + ($1100+p)*.8 = +$660 + 0.8p

But you save $220 either way.
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Old Dec 07, 2007, 6:37am   #66
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ImAllInNow View Post
I don't know if this has been discussed already, and I don't think it applies directly to this situation (because of the presence of the third player who makes pushing so much better), but there are some situations where if you know your opponent will put all his money on on the river un-improved, that you can wait till the river to make the big bet in hopes of getting away when your opponent hits.

Mathematically, waiting till the river in this hypothetical situation is MUCH better than pushing on the turn. If you push $1100 with a 80% chance of winning vs pushing the river when he misses and folding when he hits, the calculations are:

EV(waiting) = 0*.20 + $1100*.8 = +$880
EV(pushing) = -$1100*.20 + $1100*.8 = +$660


So you're saving $220 by waiting. This is a hard situation to get in real life, since they probably fold the river when they don't hit, or you won't know for sure that they hit, etc. And in the given example, the third player being on a flush draw makes pushing so much better as he won't pay off when he misses.
ok i'm the OP and you're probably the only person here who doesn't think that waiting to see the river is completely weak, stupid, and -EV.

i think waiting to see the river is -EV, and your calculation doesn't take into account the times when a scare card like a T, J, or flush hits the river and kills the action. i guess i can only justify waiting to see the river if i really don't want to lose a big pot, which was the case, because i was about to go home. but id probably get sh*t for doing that anyway because i should be focusing on long term not the session.
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Old Dec 07, 2007, 6:53am   #67
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You guys are assuming you'll get paid if he misses, and you are assuming that he's always got what you think he has.
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