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Old Feb 07, 2008, 4:55am   #11
kid hustlr
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This is a level, right?
i laughed
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aw, don't be sad.

"lucky in love, unlucky at cards", you must have bought yourself a fuck by now.
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Old Feb 07, 2008, 5:35am   #12
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Well surely you can't run bad forever. Keep putting it in at 60% and win money.
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Old Feb 07, 2008, 5:43am   #13
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Well surely you can't run bad forever.
Logic would suggest it is so unlikely that it's impossible, but experience would suggest otherwise.

I realize I need to keep putting it in as a 60% favourite - in fact, the reason I keep losing $ is that I don't alter my +EV plays based on losses; if I had stopped taking 60/40s in Omaha I wouldn't have lost 1/10th of what I've lost there of late. I'll still gladly put it all-in preflop in omaha with AAxx double suited, and I'll still get smacked down every time. I don't like to change my play based on beats - if I did, I'd have to fold 100% of the time, except for when I had the pure nuts on the river.
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Oh, and obviously, TWLLM, we'd all rather you just ruled with an iron fist of nittiness and made all decisions without consultation, but that goes without saying, right?
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Old Feb 07, 2008, 9:04am   #14
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If you don't mind me asking.... how many buy-ins have you won/lost in the last year in PLO at your preferred stakes and how far below expectation/Sklansky dollars are you running?

I seem to remember you posting it somewhere before but I can't remember where.

I've had plenty of both upswings and downswings in my life but nothing even close to what you seem to describe and i've played a lot of MTTs, supposedly the swingiest type of poker...
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Old Feb 07, 2008, 7:55pm   #15
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If you don't mind me asking.... how many buy-ins have you won/lost in the last year in PLO at your preferred stakes and how far below expectation/Sklansky dollars are you running?

I seem to remember you posting it somewhere before but I can't remember where.

I've had plenty of both upswings and downswings in my life but nothing even close to what you seem to describe and i've played a lot of MTTs, supposedly the swingiest type of poker...
I can't say for sure, especially since I have a mix of omaha/holdem in my recent results, and i don't have PT omaha (I was going to quit the game and it seemed like a waste - if I start playing seriously again, I should probably buy it). There is no precise way to calculate your luck or how much above/below EV you are - that PokerEV software is a nice idea in theory, but it is horribly inaccurate and shortsighted in practice. I remember I imported some HHs using my free HHs for PTomaha, and one thing that made me laugh was a pot where I had lost $330 or so at $200PLO on a river suckout after putting it in on the turn with the nuts against a set, showed me with a positive outcome result of $200 something... that didn't instill confidence in me to say the least.

There are also problems with the idea that showdown EV is the best measure of luck - if you go 0/25 in set over set situations in NLHE, if you had the low set each time you'd be missing maybe half a pot's equity, but in reality, that's truly sick bad luck.

But, if I was to estimate how many buyins I'm down at omaha in the past 2/3 months or so, I'd say 20-30. Rakeback is nice, but obviously it doesn't make up for it. With the variance in PLO, I could probably win that back in like 2/3 sessions, but I'm not holding my breath.

About the difference between cash game and tourney variance, while tourneys are higher variance per se, it's a different type of variance. Not cashing in tournaments is a lot different than having losing sessions at cash games, not just because you might lose more at one than the other, but because there is a subtle difference between 'not winning' in tournaments, and losing in cash games - tournaments have low single incident negative variance (as in, you can't lose more than your buyin) with high single incident positive variance (as in, you can win the tournament and makes hundreds or thousands of times your buyin back on a single buyin - I've actually been quite fortunate with regard to this type of tournament variance), but cash games in theory have just as much potential for negative variance as positive variance. So while there is a higher net variance with tournaments, cash games have lower positive variance and higher negative variance possibilities than tournaments. That said, I've gone dozens of tourneys (mtts and/or sngs) without cashing, so I'm not belittling that tournaments are high variance by any means.
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Oh, and obviously, TWLLM, we'd all rather you just ruled with an iron fist of nittiness and made all decisions without consultation, but that goes without saying, right?
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Old Feb 09, 2008, 6:29am   #16
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Hmm, two more sessions of a couple hundred hands each. Up ~100BB in one, down ~100BB in the other. Maybe i'm finally coming back to earth ;)
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Old Feb 09, 2008, 4:27pm   #17
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Hmm, two more sessions of a couple hundred hands each. Up ~100BB in one, down ~100BB in the other. Maybe i'm finally coming back to earth ;)
More like the quick stage where 1 part of the saturn 5 rocket detaches from the other before shooting to the moon.
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Oh, and obviously, TWLLM, we'd all rather you just ruled with an iron fist of nittiness and made all decisions without consultation, but that goes without saying, right?
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