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Old May 04, 2008, 5:03am   #11
MikeAK47
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I'm sure it wouldn't be difficult to memorize the numbers 1 to 15 and their corresponding numbers since it's very rare that you'll have more than 15 outs, also he doesn't play live yet so while he's using the chart he can commit it to memory at the same time.
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Old Jun 07, 2008, 11:03am   #12
KingTen
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Sorry to bump this thread but I thought it was a good out-sy one.

Now I've been playing poker for a while but I think my odds thinking is seriously rubbish. I have been breaking even for a long while now and I think that apart from not having enough discipline to look back at hands etc odds is a big part of it.

Now if I get this right from LMs chart for 8 outs (OESD) the number should on his chart should be 6.

So if I have an OESD and someone bets half the pot (50 into 100) then is it correct that I don't have the correct odds?

6*50 = 300 > 200 (the final pot amount)

If this is so then in the "real world" of poker is it also true that everyone is calling bets without the correct pot odds (and therefore falling back on implied odds)? Most people at least bet half the pot, usually a lot more from what I have seen. If so then surely no one should be drawing at all to OESD or flushes (in HU pots)?

Sorry this is so basic but I have recently come to the realisation that I really am not very good at all and thought I would start back at square one...
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Old Jun 07, 2008, 11:51am   #13
Lord Mushroom
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KingTen View Post
Now if I get this right from LMs chart for 8 outs (OESD) the number should on his chart should be 6.

So if I have an OESD and someone bets half the pot (50 into 100) then is it correct that I don't have the correct odds?
Correct, you wouldn´t have pot odds to call here. I hope this chart catches on, would be cool to have a chart named after me (although I expect around 100 000 people made it before I did).

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If this is so then in the "real world" of poker is it also true that everyone is calling bets without the correct pot odds (and therefore falling back on implied odds)?
Sometimes people have really good draws and sometimes the bets are really small. In both cases someone could have pot odds to call. But it is true that it is often the implied odds which makes a call profitable.

You must also not forget that fish may call even without implied odds, and people may call with other intentions than hoping to hit a draw. People can call to trap, people can call because they are just naturally passive, or people could have a pocket pair and call as last to act postflop hoping to get a read on whether they are ahead or behind based on what the bettor does on the next street for example.

There is also the chance that you will get a free card if the opponent doesn´t bet on the turn.

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Most people at least bet half the pot, usually a lot more from what I have seen. If so then surely no one should be drawing at all to OESD or flushes (in HU pots)?
The power of implied odds are strong. If you are convinced someone has a strong hand, but not as strong as your completed hand would be (say you think they hit a pair of aces on the flop), they are likely to be putting a lot more into the pot by showdown if you hit.

If we look at your example, it is not unreasonable to expect that the bettor would end up putting say 100 more in the pot on the turn and 200 more on the river if he has top pair or better. That makes 200 (pot on the flop) + 100 (his addition to the pot on the turn) + 200 (his addition to the pot on the river) = 500, which is well beyond the 300 required to make the call.

And if he doesn´t have a good hand, he is likely to check the turn, giving you an extra free card if you don´t hit. This almost doubles your chance of hitting an out. I actually have a column for flop+turn in my chart and it says 3,2 for 8 outs, and 3,2 * 50 = 160 is less than 200 too. While he has a non-great hand, we may add a little in implied odds too. Say 100, and 160 is much smaller than 300.

That being said, it is easy to overestimate how much the opponent will put in the pot if you hit (especially if your draw is "obvious", like a flush). And even if you hit your draw, your opponent may have or get an even better hand. There is also the option of semi-bluffing with draws.

The concept of odds can´t be fully solved mathematically (unless you are a human calculator), at some point you must "feel" what is right based upon the situation. With experience, it will get easier and easier to decide what to do with your draws. When you have played roughly the same situation 250* times, you start to figure out what the right play is.

* Number pulled out of ass.
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Old Jun 09, 2008, 1:24pm   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Mushroom
I hope this chart catches on, would be cool to have a chart named after me (although I expect around 100 000 people made it before I did).

Why don't you put the Lord Mushroom-Chart on the site then?, I'd use it
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Old Jun 09, 2008, 1:45pm   #15
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Why don't you put the Lord Mushroom-Chart on the site then?
While my ego-itch is strong, it will always lose when up against my laziness.
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Old Jun 09, 2008, 4:15pm   #16
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with over 2500 posts, i wouldn't say you're lazy
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