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Old Oct 16, 2009, 10:59pm   #21
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to make it short:
set mining in SNG's with pot odds of less than 1:12 is questionable
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Old Oct 18, 2009, 12:03pm   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by killcrazy View Post
Because the odds of flopping a set are roughly 8:1. If you don't flop a set with a small pair, you basically have to fold to any bet (unless you flop something like 754 with 66). Therefore, to take a small pair to the flop, you need to average a return of at least 8:1 on your money, or you're losing money by seeing the flop.

So, for example, the button raises to 3BB and the SB calls. You're in the big blind with 33. You have to call 2BB to see the flop, and knowing that you're about 8:1 to hit your set, you need to get a return of 16BB. The pot already has 7BB in it (pot odds), so you need to be able to get another 9BB from the other players when you hit your set (implied odds) to make this call profitable.

Kc
So you basically want double the odds. its 8:1 on hitting the set. you to make its 16to1.

How does this apply to other starting hands.. Like Sc's or AKs?????????
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Old Oct 18, 2009, 7:46pm   #23
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I think This basically relates to middle to low PP corret

Now, What if the same type scenario presents itself, but I hold QQ or KK, not AA

With a 50 BB stack, And multi callers On a 3xBB raise. I would think I simply call here, Even with a load of fish here. You would probably have to put one of them on an ace. And if I miss the flop I'm folding. Is it worth the re raise here?


I guess if i'm over pair afterflop i can stay though right?
Purely for the sake of argument, the chances of an ace flopping are about 20%, this really isn't your biggest consideration when playing a big pocket pair. In worrying about the one opponent who has an ace, you let 3 opponents see the flop with a variety of hands, all of which are capable of outflopping you.

Big pairs play best against fewer opponents. They are obviously the best starting hands but they are extremely vulnerable. Lets say there's a raise and 3 callers to you, and you call with KsKc. The flop comes JhTh7c. This is a bad beat waiting to happen, any of the four players in the pot with you can easily have JT or 98 when you're already in serious trouble. Someone can have the heart draw and 9 outs twice against you, someone can have a pair and hold 5 outs twice against you, someone can have a pair and a gutshot when they have 9 outs twice against you. Or, you could be up against a flush draw, a pair with a gutshot straight draw, and top pair top kicker, when the field will have a total of ~20 outs against you (depending on what cards they have/which outs are dead). Everyone will feel that they have the necessary odds to continue and your kings will only hold up about a quarter of the time.

If you reraise, however, you thin the field, and with every player you eliminate your equity increases. You might take the pot down right there, which is an okay result because that pot already has 13.5BB in it. Perhaps the original raiser calls with his AJ, 65h folds and T9s calls. The JhTh7c flop arrives...but this time you have a full 50% equity with your KK. Even if 65h hangs around and T9s folds, you have about 45% equity. Your equity increases enormously just by getting rid of one of those hands preflop.

Other considerations:

Before the flop, your KK will be the best hand more than 96% of the time at a 9 handed table. You always want more money rather than less money in the pot when you have the best of it.

Furthermore, by reraising, you get more information about your opponents hands. Rather than knowing that player 1 has a hand good enough to open and player 2 has a hand good enough to call an open raise, you reraise and learn that player 1 has a hand good enough to open and call a reraise, and player 2 has a hand that can call both a raise and a reraise. You eliminate the low end of your opponents ranges, and probably the extreme high end too, since if your opponents understand what we've been discussing, they're going to fourbet you with AA-QQ rather than limp along with it. If you discover people coming along with hands that really should be in their range, make a note of it, and think about how you can exploit it in future.

Kc
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Old Oct 18, 2009, 8:05pm   #24
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So you basically want double the odds. its 8:1 on hitting the set. you to make its 16to1.
I think we've miscommunicated to get to 16:1, I was looking to get a return of 16 because i was being asked to call 2 as an 8:1 dog to hit my set.

Implied odds are tricky. Or possibly is tricky...Is/are implied odds singular or plural? This is just one of the many problems implied odds can present.

Pot odds are simple. The pot has five times the bet in it, therefore the pot odds are 5:1. Implied odds are far more complex because much of the information you need to calculate how well you can get paid is hidden; you don't know your opponent's hand. If you can see your opponent's cards you can say, okay, he has aces, if i hit my set I'm going to stack him every time. Or, he's raising with a mediocre hand, he'll need to hit top pair when I make my set for me to get paid and that's not going to happen most of the time.

There is no substitute for experience in this situation, I don't know how often you'll get paid with your sets in the games you're playing. There seems to be something of a consensus that implied odds of 12:1 is the magic number. As your collection of past games grows, you can look through it at all the times you've made a set and see how often you get paid off, and you can re-evaluate the necessary implied odds.

Quote:
How does this apply to other starting hands.. Like Sc's or AKs?????????
New thread for those

Kc
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