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Old Oct 17, 2009, 9:33pm   #1
Banalanal
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Default Overbet Shove River Bluff Baby

BTN: $85.52
SB: $83.27 20/13 AGG1.4 WTSD 22. 3BETS 1.8
BB: $88.86
UTG: $50.00
MP: $8.04
Hero (CO): $144.10 TAG
Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with 4 A
1 fold, MP calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.50, 1 fold, SB calls $2.25, 2 folds
Flop: ($6.00) 6 9 3 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $4.00, SB calls $4
Turn: ($14.00) 2 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $10.00, SB calls $10
River: ($34.00) Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $124.00,


It's so rare for people to overbet bluff at these stakes because most aren't good enough to put people on a hand range. I want to start using it once in awhile.

His range AQ,Ak,1010,JJ,77,88 and flush draws.

I feel like an overbet shove has so much more FE due to psychological weight than a pot sized bet... My shove has to work 2/3rds of the time... You likey?

For the record my standard is bet/fold..
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Old Oct 18, 2009, 12:04am   #2
killcrazy
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Your logic is correct, there are always some hands that will call a pot bet but will fold to an overbet, you have to balance this against the increased risk. If, for instance, 50% of the range that beats you will fold to the pot bet but only 60% will fold to the shove, the pot bet is obviously much better EV.

I think his range is a little wider than you've given him and redshifted slightly. For much the same reason you've eliminated 99 and 66, I think there would be more aggression from JJ or TT. Your opponent is essentially passive, but I would still expect more from him if he was holding an overpair, if you've seen him check-calling strong vulnerable hands, fair enough.

I'd presume he gets to the flop with decent stupidconnectors, if so he'll probably be hanging around with junk like 98s and 76s as well as 87s and a bunch of club draws.

The numbers involved are exceptionally convenient, as you say you need to take it down pretty much dead on 2/3 of the time to show a profit. Betting pot you'd only have to take it down half the time. Of course betting 2/3 pot as you had on flop and turn, you'd only have to take it down 40% of the time...So the question is, how much of his range that beats you (you can check and win against some of his range remember, so ignore hands like 87) do you expect won't fold to any bet, and how much will fold to an all in that won't fold to a pot or smaller bet?

Final thought, when you pull a stunt like this and get looked up, make sure to note which players have seen you do it, particularly any thinking regs, so that you can psycho overbet for value against them at some point in the near future.

Kc
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Old Oct 18, 2009, 12:15am   #3
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So the bet itself is 60ish dollars on the river?

I guess the question is how many hands are calling 30ish that are folding to 60?

If you bluff 30 on the river, you have to win 1 out of 2 times to break even.
If you bluff 60 on the river, you have to win 2 out of 3 times to break even.
And more importantly, you have to win 33% more often with the 60 bluff than the 30 bluff to make the 60 bluff equal in ev. (I think. May be voodoo math) I think this third point (whatever the real math is) is the deciding factor. The 60 bluff may be profitable, but if its less profitable than the 30 bluff, then its still a mistake. (This is in the context of a single hand, so future actions based on this play are not considered)

The problem I think you run into with this hand, is that it doesn't make sense. 2/3rds pot, 2/3rds pot. 2x pot? If you have a big hand on the flop, are you going to be giving odds to the straight or flush draws? If you hit AQ, are you going to overbet it crazily?

So from their point of view, it looks wacky. A weirdly played set, a missed draw, or QQ. I think if they were going to have the stones to call a 30 dollar bet, they probably will muster up the guts to call a 60 dollar bet.
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Old Oct 18, 2009, 9:28am   #4
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Your line is pretty much QQ, air, with most of that range being QQ i'd assume. I'm probably folding more than two thirds of my range to the river shove if i'm villain. I'm also pretty much never checking the river as villain if I want to play for stacks so it's probably okay as far as weird spewy overbet bluffs are concerned (I very rarely overbet bluff as in 1 in 10000+ hands) but i'm not sure whether it's better than a pot sized bluff
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Old Oct 18, 2009, 8:14pm   #5
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Next question. If you're going to overbet bluff, is 2x pot any better than pot+10%?

The psychological effect is basically the same, except it's easier to put someone on a bluff when they shove.

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Old Oct 18, 2009, 8:16pm   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
Your line is pretty much QQ, air, with most of that range being QQ i'd assume.
range is any set, AQ, sometimes KQ, 54s can't be ruled out but is unlikely, busted draw, air

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Old Oct 18, 2009, 8:22pm   #7
Banalanal
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Yeah Swoop, my range is much wider than that. I didn't over think it. Maybe pot +10% is better long run. Meh. I'd be surprised if it made a noticeable difference. In his shoes, I'm folding everything as I'm never getting to his spot strong by looking so weak on this board.

He snap folded. I think overbet bluffs will have a place in my game once in awhile. The math is just so good and people play their hands face up a lot.
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Old Oct 18, 2009, 8:36pm   #8
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I'd like to see the math. What folds to a shove that doesn't fold to a pot bet, or pot+10%?

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