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Old Dec 27, 2009, 1:08am   #1
SwoopAE
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Default PLO8 FT Spot

Full Tilt Poker Game #17112391672: $6,000 Guarantee (126318921), Table 5 - 1000/2000 - Pot Limit Omaha H/L - 21:02:53 ET - 2009/12/26
Seat 2: SwoopAE (53,594)
Seat 3: Scott Clements (159,325)
Seat 4: -B510- (18,415)
Seat 5: XoKuhn (17,270)
Seat 6: CntStacula (22,981)
Seat 8: repletehalo (88,284)
Seat 9: Fakemode (30,131)
XoKuhn posts the small blind of 1,000
CntStacula posts the big blind of 2,000
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to SwoopAE [3d As Qc Qs]
repletehalo calls 2,000
SwoopAE raises to 9,000
Scott Clements folds
-B510- folds
XoKuhn folds
CntStacula has 15 seconds left to act
CntStacula folds
repletehalo calls 7,000
*** FLOP *** [8h 5h Kd]
repletehalo bets 21,000
SwoopAE: ??

Anyone ever do anything other than shove or call/call turn? I'm trying to see how this is a fold (ICM suicide, etc) but can I ever fold here?

Final table if that changes anything.
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Old Dec 27, 2009, 11:59am   #2
killcrazy
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hmm...ugly...

i'd like to hear a complete argument for continuing with some maths. i think i lean towards folding, but i'm far from being an O/8 specialist.

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Old Dec 27, 2009, 12:14pm   #3
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I'm also far away from a PLO8 expert, but I don't think that you can continue. You have 2nd Pair with an overcard for the High side and the 2nd Lowdraw for the low side.

I think Villain as at least a FD+a lowdraw (most of the cases better or equal to yours).

This is just a feeling....
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Old Dec 27, 2009, 4:24pm   #4
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that was pretty much what i was thinking too. i think this is a clear fold but i know shit all about omaha/8 so i'm being cautious in case someone who knows what they're doing shows up.

we have virtually no high (re)draws, and with any kind of nonretarded hand (ie hearts with a pocket pair or some such) he's going to have almost 50% equity in the high, with a king in his hand we're a huge dog. we'll make the low 60% of the time but even then we can get quartered or scooped. is this worth 45k to win 10?

Plus the table has a bunch of shortstacks, tournamentwise getting out of the way seems fine here. gamble later when we've moved up a few spots.

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Old Dec 28, 2009, 8:03pm   #5
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You need to know the payout-structure to say something icm wise. Even if you do know the payout, you need to asses:

- probability of him folding
- probability of a split
- probability of a scoop by you
- probability of a scoop by him

to tell something about the situation icm-wise.

It's also possible to factor in quarter pots, but i think they're rare enough to not have a big influence.

I don't play PLO8, so I'm not even gonna try to guestimate those probabilities, but if you give me some percentages I'm willing to work out the math. (I'm also pretty curious how big of a role icm plays in this case).
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Old Dec 29, 2009, 3:59am   #6
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I'd just fold unless you had some great read on the guy. Keep your chips and move on.
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Old Dec 29, 2009, 4:04pm   #7
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This is definately a fold here. We are drawing to the second nut low and if he has a king our Q's are no good and we have no flush draw possibilites.

I'm waiting for a better spot. I'm not sure what the math would be on this. He could have 2 pair here or flush draw and I think he is drawing to the low as well. It's a good possibility that we could even get quartered on the low if we hit it.
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Old Dec 29, 2009, 8:29pm   #8
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I swear you're all nits, villain has semi-air here heaps. Anyway, I agree it's a marginal fold. FWIW villain had a king with no low draw and scooped.
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Old Dec 29, 2009, 9:56pm   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
I swear you're all nits, villain has semi-air here heaps. Anyway, I agree it's a marginal fold. FWIW villain had a king with no low draw and scooped.


I learned from the master Mr. Howard Lederer. It's the new wave of poker playing being a nit and only going in wif da nutzz.
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