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Old Mar 30, 2010, 6:21pm   #1
Wino Whines
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Default Formula for moving up in limits

After getting beat up a bit at the higher limits (3/6 & 5/10), how does this fare as far as a formula to move up? I am currently solid at the 1/2 & 2/4 levels, but seems that the variance jumps quickly above this.

- Buy-ins - 50x BB
- Only buy-in at this rate when your BR is 250x BB at that level.
- Move up one once you reach 500x BB and winning at 60-70% session rate at current level.
- If you move up and your session win rate decreases below 50%, move back down to rebuild

Other parameters for moving up to the next level(s)?
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Old Mar 30, 2010, 8:41pm   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wino Whines View Post
After getting beat up a bit at the higher limits (3/6 & 5/10), how does this fare as far as a formula to move up? I am currently solid at the 1/2 & 2/4 levels, but seems that the variance jumps quickly above this.

- Buy-ins - 50x BB
a buyin in limit is generally understood to be 25 BB, but nobody ever really uses "buyin" as a unit, so it's unnecessary semantics

Quote:
- Only buy-in at this rate when your BR is 250x BB at that level.

- Move up one once you reach 500x BB and winning at 60-70% session rate at current level.
okay. session win percentage is a totally false measure of very little use to you statistically. you can win less than 50% of your sessions and be a major winner in the game. if for instance you follow the old addage of keep playing while you're winning/playing well, and quit the game if you're losing/playing badly, you probably are going to lose more than 50% of sessions, but they're going to be short sessions, whereas your winning sessions will be longer and will contain a greater percentage of your overall hands played.

many years ago, david sklansky did some math, and concluded that a player with a longterm winrate of 1BB/hour with a standard deviation of 15 BB/hour would need a 300BB bankroll to have a negligable risk of ruin; a player with those stats should not be able to run bad enough for long enough to bust a 300BB bankroll.

the game has become higher variance in recent years, also players now play more tables which also contributes to the variance, and for most winning players, an unbustable bankroll for a normal player may need to be as big as 500BB.

If you're prepared to drop down limits, you can get away with a smaller bankroll, but a surprisingly small number of players are prepared to or capable of doing this. Additionally if your bankroll is replacable (ie if you're playing lower limits and have a job and can reload) you don't need to maintain an unbustable bankroll.

But assuming you can never reload your bankroll and you are a standard winning player for your limits, you can take shots at a higher limit pretty much any time your bankroll is 500BB+whatever you need to play the higher limit. When you move up, you want to play less tables, and employ a stop loss. If you normally play 4 tables of, say, 1/2. when you move up you should play 2 tables of 2/4, and you should quit and return to 1/2 if you lose more than 50BB at the higher limit. The reason for the stop loss is twofold, firstly, you are going to be losing more money faster than you are used to, which can lead you towards playing badly and tilting, and secondly you don't know what your expectation is at the higher limit, and may simply be outmatched by your opponents.

So, keeping your 500BB roll intact, and taking 50BB to the higher limit, you would need 600BB to take a shot at the next limit.

Kc
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Old Mar 30, 2010, 11:50pm   #3
Wino Whines
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Very cool, awesome, thanks KC...that helps a lot.

I'm in-line as I rarely play more than 2 tables at once and always keep my total at ~ 300BB and generally stop-loss at 50% buy-in per table.
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