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Old Apr 17, 2010, 12:07am   #1
Wino Whines
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Default Where does the volatility lie/lay...whatever?

In live 3/6 Limit games, I've had several occasions where I buy in for a rack of $1's ($100) and able to walk with 2-3 racks (i.e. $200 - $300) after a full 'winning' session of 2-4 hours. My losing sessions I usually stop-loss at 1.5 racks ($150). My live numbers overall are 50-60% better as well.

Online, it seems almost impossible to do better than double up my $100 buy-in (very rare at that) and even when I do, it gets sucked out almost as quickly. My new "formula" is to bolt after I get up $50-$100 because almost EVERY frigging time I cannot get past doubling the stack.

Beside the obvious additional hands played and/or the volatility of players, what gives?

One theory is that the turnover of player is greater/faster AND the random generator of the hands (and sheer #) create this greater overall volatility in all aspects of the game. But if you are playing the same solid game, why the big discrepancies? And, bigger/quicker swings down than up compared to live...
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Old Apr 17, 2010, 12:25am   #2
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More hands = less "volatility" if anything.
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Originally Posted by Wino Whines View Post
One theory is that the turnover of player is greater/faster AND the random generator of the hands (and sheer #) create this greater overall volatility in all aspects of the game. But if you are playing the same solid game, why the big discrepancies? And, bigger/quicker swings down than up compared to live...
None of this makes any sense.

Most likely it's just variance. If you have noticed this over a few thousand hands then we can say that you are probably NOT playing "the same solid game" but are allowing your stack size to affect your play whether you realise it or not.

Oh, and you do better live because the the game is softer.
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Old Apr 17, 2010, 10:59am   #3
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Old Apr 17, 2010, 12:15pm   #4
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Oh, and you do better live because the the game is softer.

live limit games have the worst poker players in the histroy of the world playing them...........hmmmmmm and there you are
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Old Apr 17, 2010, 5:24pm   #5
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You've already been given good answers by Fox and Acehole.

Quote:
One theory is that the turnover of player is greater/faster
This is true-the fish just are cleaned out faster online and then leave, once they're gone the table breaks up too.

Quote:
AND the random generator of the hands
The random generators are not perfect; but they're very close to a real shuffle. It's only the rare online poker room that has a fixed RG (an example of which is Ultimate bet

Quote:
(and sheer #) create this greater overall volatility in all aspects of the game. But if you are playing the same solid game, why the big discrepancies? And, bigger/quicker swings down than up compared to live...
Yes, the greater number of hands per hour does matter. It makes even the fish much more experienced players. Ones profits come solely from those one has an edge over, the greater the edge the greater the profits. At every level online one has extremely experienced winning and break even players. One has to be better than them to make a profit. It's also very common for them to be using tracking software on you giving them an edge beyond their higher skill level, so are you using: Poker tracker; hold'em manager or poker office too? How expert are you in using them?
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Old Apr 18, 2010, 11:13pm   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snaggle View Post
It's also very common for them to be using tracking software on you giving them an edge beyond their higher skill level, so are you using: Poker tracker; hold'em manager or poker office too? How expert are you in using them?
Agreed. I am not committed to the online game and do not use the tracking software. Just dabbling and do not have the time to play enough to make it work beyond a couple of qualifiers here and there. Plus, it is too frustrating at this level and I have no interest in playing the low-limits to make 2-3BB per 100 hands. And do not have the bankroll for bigger games.

But given the input and the short run of numbers, I do not have the game nor the level of interest in the online game to make it work. From what I am gathering, you have to be totally committed, otherwise just get swallowed up. Just come to the conclusion that I do not have the proper skills or temperment for the online game. Although I've only played at Stars...

Played in live 3/6 for 30 min. lost $40 then 6/12 game after I got knocked out of the tourney yesterday and made $160 in 2 hours.

"Hey Doc, it hurts when I do this..." Doc, "Then don't do that".
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Old Apr 19, 2010, 7:26am   #7
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Quote:
I do not have the game nor the level of interest in the online game to make it work. From what I am gathering, you have to be totally committed, otherwise just get swallowed up.
I don't think this is true unless by commitment you mean 'time'. I think that there is more to commitment than that - there is a sense in which you have to determine your reasons for playing, whether live or online, and your commitment is dependent on that reason. Thus I can (and do) only play for recreational purposes. I can (and do) beat the limit game at 0.25/0.50 online and am a winning sng player at microstakes. I find both of those a challenge, and have read/invested in technology to the extent of supporting that challenge, but it's significant that neither necessarily demands more than 90 minutes of my time in one go. That's absolutely fine because I'm playing for fun, but I'm not getting swallowed up...not at all!!
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Old Apr 19, 2010, 9:39am   #8
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Originally Posted by Iestyn75 View Post
I don't think this is true unless by commitment you mean 'time'. I think that there is more to commitment than that - there is a sense in which you have to determine your reasons for playing, whether live or online, and your commitment is dependent on that reason. Thus I can (and do) only play for recreational purposes. I can (and do) beat the limit game at 0.25/0.50 online and am a winning sng player at microstakes. I find both of those a challenge, and have read/invested in technology to the extent of supporting that challenge, but it's significant that neither necessarily demands more than 90 minutes of my time in one go. That's absolutely fine because I'm playing for fun, but I'm not getting swallowed up...not at all!!
Probably the healthiest take on poker I've seen on here in a while.
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Old Apr 20, 2010, 1:32pm   #9
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Probably the healthiest take on poker I've seen on here in a while.
That's very much appreciated feedback; thank you!
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Old Apr 21, 2010, 12:06am   #10
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Yes, very good take on the game. And yes, it is time at home.

I get away once, maybe twice a week to play at longer spurts and it suits me fine. Plus, I work from home and the last thing I like to do is get stuck on the computer as well.

It is strictly convenience at home, but the online game is too frustrating. I VERY rarely tilt live...but online, eeeesh!

Think I'll just stick to the WSOP qualifiers.
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