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Old May 11, 2010, 11:04am   #1
SwoopAE
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Default @Ozone, Twogun - Politics props on Intrade

Arlen Specter to win the Democratic nomination for 2010 Pennsylvania Senate is paying 25.0 on Intrade, his actual odds are lower than 5.0 at the moment

I was on this a while back (not for money but I felt Sestak was better 50% even when Specter was 80.0)

Anyway, just giving you guys an opportunity to win your money back that you lost betting politics with me

Throwing $500 on this (Specter to lose nomination/Sestak to win) to win $250 is a very very solid investment, which should have a >100% ROI on average if you were to make the bet right now 100 times.

I'll do some more analysis to put an exact line if either of you actually want to bet, i'll throw on a bit with you (don't have an intrade acct can do xfer from whatever site) if either of you are interested. If you are let me know and i'll do an hour or so's research to confirm the actual odds, Specter is between 5.0 and 10.0 at the moment on a quick look.

Consider this my election betting guide

For anyone who doesn't know, i'm about 11/12 in politics prop bets lifetime at an average of about 1.5-1 in my favour (won two 5-1s in my favour, rest all at evens or close, lost a 5-1 in my favour)

I'll be putting any good politics bets here for the remainder of the leadup to the 2010 US election

@Mods move to the rail if you like I dont mind either way
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Old May 11, 2010, 11:12am   #2
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BTW it's too early to bet on any house/senate races yet, Republicans to retake house at 46.0 is a bad bet, it's more like 28-30 at the moment but i'll know for sure one way or the other a few weeks out.

Dems to control senate is a lock, you can lock that in if you can get anything under 85.0 worst case for the dems is basically losing 8 seats and picking up zero barring several major unforseen scandals and that still gives them 51 with Lieberman (who isn't a guarantee) and Sanders (who is a lock to caucus with them)

In any case if you can find it under 90 it's +EV and under 80 it's an easy four figure bet.

I'll have more info closer to the elections in any case and can find some actual lock bets for anyone who wants to make free money. The senate races should provide some good value this year, in some cases on the D and in other cases on the R.

@Ozone have you been doing any intrade betting recently?
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Old May 11, 2010, 11:25am   #3
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There's going to be value in one of the lines on how many seats the R's game in the house but I have to wait a few months until some of my favourite analysts do their thing before i'll have a decent range.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ has solid analysis as do several progressive blogs.

FL-Sen will be easy to call a few weeks out, not yet though. At this stage Rubio (R) is actually decent value at 44 I think although I wouldn't bet on this race until I see how Crist's I bid starts out

PA-Sen could go either way although the D nominee at 30.0 is good value on Intrade (i'm assume it's Sestak and he's only polling 2 behind the right wing extremist the Rs have nominated)

D-Feingold to hold WI is good value at 75.0

Missouri will have good value on one of the candidates but I don't know which yet

R candidate to win KY is good value at up to 80 is good value if you can get it.
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Old May 11, 2010, 4:08pm   #4
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Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post

Throwing $500 on this (Specter to lose nomination/Sestak to win) to win $250 is a very very solid investment, which should have a >100% ROI on average if you were to make the bet right now 100 times.

lol mathament.

If u win 100% of the time u have a 50% ROI
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I'm inclined to agree with Seb
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Old May 11, 2010, 6:16pm   #5
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Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
@Ozone have you been doing any intrade betting recently?
No.

Also, I'm amazed how confident you are in these picks. I mean, for all I know it's justifiable, I just don't know how you have any information that makes you think you can beat the market.
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Old May 11, 2010, 6:39pm   #6
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I dunno, he gonna research bout an hour. Solid imo.
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Old May 11, 2010, 6:42pm   #7
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I did lol at the comment on those progressive blogs. That might be buying past peak.
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Old May 12, 2010, 6:52am   #8
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Originally Posted by Seb47 View Post
lol mathament.

If u win 100% of the time u have a 50% ROI
lol mathament

I meant if you make this bet an infinite number of times....and then had a logic fail and screwed up the numbers
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Old May 12, 2010, 6:53am   #9
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I did lol at the comment on those progressive blogs. That might be buying past peak.
I mean some of them do independent polling, they've been pretty accurate going back to 2004 when Bush won

Obviously the opinion is biased/overly optimistic for the Ds

But if you want to set a line on how many seats the Rs will win in the house and Senate i'll consider taking the under depending what line/odds you set
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Old May 12, 2010, 6:58am   #10
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Originally Posted by Ozone View Post
No.

Also, I'm amazed how confident you are in these picks. I mean, for all I know it's justifiable, I just don't know how you have any information that makes you think you can beat the market.
Joe average doesn't spend an hour a day reading polling data, political analysis sites etc.

It's too early for me to call any of these bets a lock i'm just putting value out there where I see it.

Closer to the election i'll be able to make some solid picks which I will back with my own money. I'm just starting this thread early incase anyone wants to spazz out and offer me ridiculous odds on anything

Sestak at 75.0 is solid imo. He's running better ads, remember it's a D primary, Specter is a former Republican. The electors here aren't your average sample of the electorate the way that. Sestak has been down 10+ points due to low name recognition the whole way, now that he's on the air nonstop in PA running ads reminding the D primary voters that

Also he's polling better than Specter vs Toomey (the R) and he's surged to a 4-5 point lead.

Think Lamont-Lieberman in CT in the primary. The more progressive candidate usually overperforms on primary day.

I'd say Sestak wins 53-47 or 54-46 on primary day at this stage barring some unforseen event.

Specter's only chance is super low turnout for Sestak + democratic establishment getting out the vote for him but it won't happen.

Edit: I'm not saying that he's going to win the general (although he might; i'll know in a few mths) i'm saying he's going to win the primary. Just making that clear.
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