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Old May 19, 2010, 2:39pm   #21
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Nice work Swoop. I feel like I'm totally set up to get owned right now.

Step 1: Bet against Swoop and lose.
Step 2: Sit on sidelines and watch Swoop win again.
Step 3: Decide Swoop must never lose and start shadowing all of his calls.
Step 4: ???
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Old May 19, 2010, 2:50pm   #22
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I'll match whatever action if you bet with me, I just don't have an intrade account and cbf setting once up since i'm only going to bet small stakes this election. I didn't even have money on Sestak myself, was just putting it out there since it was good value.

Follow my lead for an insignificant amount of money for this election season and make some real money in 2012 if you like my results.

If you want we can chip in $100 each and start with a $200 bankroll, see what we can run it up to over the course of the election season? Plenty more primaries and then lots of good spots for value on the general.

Also, read fivethirtyeight.com and in particular Nate Silver's analysis before ever placing another political prop bet. EVER. The McCain disaster could have been avoided if you had been seeing the numbers I was seeing in 2008.

I honestly almost threw 20k (my whole roll at the time) on Obama at 83 the day before the election because nate and 538 and the polling data had Obama at about 99.8ish the day before the election. It was very close to statistically impossible for him to lose at that stage. Obama was never under 70 to win the election at any point from when he won the nomination, even during McCain's convention bounce when McCain got to like 53 on Intrade.
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Old May 19, 2010, 2:58pm   #23
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If you want we can chip in $100 each and start with a $200 bankroll, see what we can run it up to over the course of the election season?
I'm in on this under the condition that we gamble pretty aggressively with it. I don't want to put up $100 and try to grind out $30, but if we can press edges hard and maybe run it up to a few thousand, sounds great! Go ahead and get it started if you want. I'll hand you $100 in Vegas.
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Old May 19, 2010, 3:16pm   #24
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I don't have an intrade acct yet can we use yours? I can fund it from my moneybookers or something if thats possible

...and yeah of course we're going to be pushing edges, I just said start with $100 since it's a 'who cares if we lose' scenario and if we do well, it's good practice for the 2012 cycle when there will be a lot more money to be made.
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Old May 19, 2010, 3:29pm   #25
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Ok to start with

I have to read the rules of Dems to hold senate; if we're including Is that caucus with the dems this is a lock. It's currently trading at 75. The math makes it borderline impossible.

We're going to get on Sestak to win PA-SEN for a small portion of our bankroll, give it three days though. He's at 40 now when I think he's a 65-35 favourite. The D won PA-12 special election by 8 points yesterday in a race intrade had at 55 for the R. PA is a bluer state than investors think and we can hedge off at 50 later if it's still close near election day. Sestak WILL be favourite at some point here so need to get on him while he's still a dog. We can hedge off later if need be.

On another note, I think we need to evaulate whether buying Rubio (R for FL-Sen) or selling Crist is better value. I need to do more research into Kendrick Meek, but I think this one is a lost cause for the Ds and Crist will usually tank and be worthless before election day.

It's annoying to have to lock up so much equity now betting on the Ds to hold the senate but that's ridiculous value at 75. The true odds are like 94 or something right now, the Rs would have to sweep everything and the Ds lose all their pickup opportunities; the Rs will basically definitely win a net of 3-7 senate seats but 9 (or even 8 if Lieberman switches parties to tie it up; which I doubt he'd do, he'll only switch if it gives Rs the senate) just seems out of reach. 75 is RIDICULOUSLY good value here.

The house it's too early to bet on. I like the Ds side narrowly here but it's either going to be a Rs pick up 15 seats or Rs pick up 60 seats election. Bottom line is we don't know yet and we shouldn't bet either way yet (they need about 40-something seats to take back the house I think offhand). There will be value later, but right now is not the right time to bet. We'll see polling on individual races much later.

Ok i'm gonna go get dinner.

Oh and Rand Paul > Trey Grayson, that one was free money yesterday, lol, not sure if I mentioned it but Paul was only 83ish I think polling like 15 points ahead.
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Old May 19, 2010, 3:32pm   #26
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btw if we can get a good price on the Ds for CT-SEN over the current news cycle that might be worth doing. The Ds will dump Blumenthal if he can't win.

Also it's worth looking into whether we can get a good price on the Rs to win the senate seat in CO, but I need to do a lot more research into that one.

Also Feingold holds Wisconsin basically always, the R's only viable candidate announced he isn't running and Feingold is a good campaigner and will be LOADED with money from the netroots if he's in any danger, he's the left's messiah because he voted against the patriot act. If he asks, he gets five million in a week. He's a lock at 75ish. get on now.
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Old May 19, 2010, 5:39pm   #27
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http://politicalwire.com/archives/20...ican_year.html

I'm leaning towards the Rs falling WAY short of expected gains at this stage. I can see the Ds picking up 2 Senate seats to the Rs 5 or so at this point. I may be overestimating things based on a day where everything went right for the Ds (including nominating both the best candidates and my personal favourite candidates in PA and KY of the primary contenders)

Also if anyone cares, Rand Paul is a) an extremist and b) a douchebag and now that the Ds have nominated Conway, well, in any other year i'd say Conway will make a race of it and if the tide continues to turn back away from the Rs, a seat that should well be completely safe may end up being competitive and at the very least drain RNC resources.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/20...sion_call.html

Link is to Rand Paul being a fucking douchebag and refusing to take the concession call from his opponent. Who does that, seriously?

The Ds will lose seats this year in the house and senate, but at this point i'm betting it's nowhere near the wave Rs expect.

We'll know more in a few weeks.

Meanwhile, Ozone, do you want me to open a new Intrade account for our mini-venture towards getting Ozone unstuck from politics prop betting or can we use your existing one?
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Old May 19, 2010, 7:36pm   #28
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I don't have an intrade acct yet can we use yours? I can fund it from my moneybookers or something if thats possible
PM'ing you account details.
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Old May 19, 2010, 7:42pm   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
It's annoying to have to lock up so much equity now betting on the Ds to hold the senate but that's ridiculous value at 75. The true odds are like 94 or something right now
We should make an interesting team because I feel like you have a bit of a D-bias in general and I probably have a bit of an R-bias.

What Ds do you have winning that make them retain Senate control? I guess you seem pretty optimistic about Rs having no chance when it seems like they kinda could (http://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/...enate_map.html). Note: I've spent like literally 5 minutes on this stuff, so for the most part, I'm going to take your word for stuff... just kind of playing devil's advocate.
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Old May 19, 2010, 8:04pm   #30
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Swoop, take note of the Intrade rules on the Senate control contract:

Quote:
For expiry purposes any Senate seat held by an Independent who caucuses or votes with the Democrats will be considered Independent and NOT a Democratic seat. The same rule applies to any Independent who caucuses or votes with the Republicans.
That's very unfavorable to D bettors since Lieberman and Sanders wouldn't count.
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