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Old May 24, 2010, 4:04pm   #1
Wino Whines
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Default Math vs. Extended Logic

As most know, Limit Holdem has a lot to do with math, saving bets, not missing bets and pot odds. But a situation occurred at a recent event that I wanted to explore more.

Early stages of Limit tourney, starting stack of $5k. Blinds at $50/$100. I've already donked off ~ $800 in chips by blanking every flop with all my holdings.

Mid-pos. with . UTG raises to $200, one more caller and very likely at least 2 more calling, I call $200. Two more do call for a total of 5 in the pot of $1000 now. Overall very loose table with a bunch of idiots playing ATC.

Flop -

UTG leads out $100, one immediate call before me. So, to me it is $100 in to a $1200 pot (i.e. 12-1 odds) and likely at least one more caller. The board is obviously terrible for my holding AND the "extended logic" here is that I feel I only had one out as I did not hold the either.

Regardless of the logic, do the odds warrant a call for just the $100?
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Old May 24, 2010, 11:31pm   #2
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I'm probably not qualified to answer here, but I'll take a stab. Please correct me if I'm off.

I would say despite your great odds, I don't think you win enough to make it worth it. You are already discounting the 6h which leaves one out unless you boat up as well. There could also be others holding a six. With that many in on a loose table, not unreasonable for someone to have 67 or 56 sooted. You are already beat (essentially) and are hoping for a miracle card which may not even be available. I would say just play it for set value and fold if you miss.

-d
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Old May 25, 2010, 12:56am   #3
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no.

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Old May 25, 2010, 4:32am   #4
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You believe you effectively have one out. So out of 47 unknown cards, you need one. your odds ratio is 46:1 < 12:1 = fold.
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Old May 25, 2010, 2:52pm   #5
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Yeah, I knew the answer and I am too results oriented. I folded the hand.

But after not being able to get anything going, of course the spikes the turn with an 8 on the river that would have boated me. And, of course, 4 people stayed all the way to the river and it was a HUGE pot with only top-pair winning.

The main premise of the thread is being able to actually take in to account the suit to the board here and/or assuming someone would be on a flush draw. Which, in this case, no one was. My assessment was correct, but timing was off.

Limit is such a donk-fest I wish I knew less sometimes...I swear I was better three years ago. Everyone else at that table makes the call and gets paid off. I was in the land of opposites the whole day.

It's the lead title of my new poker book series - "How to successfully play the losers and fold the winners - you too can maximize your losses and minimize your profits." Coming soon - "How to slow play at the perfect time to let others come out of nowhere to chase you down with rags." Next up, "How to win the least and lose the most with BIG pocket pairs."

DOH!!
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Old May 25, 2010, 5:55pm   #6
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The exception to the rule doesn't mean you should play for it

I was in AC yesterday playing 10/20 at the Borg with a friend and we got into a large pot where he folded Top Pair Med kicker on the flop in a huge pot and was 100% correct to do so (I'd raised UTG 9-handed and there had been a call and raise on my follow through on a K93, KT is no good sir).

Obviously he would have won the hand thanks to a T on the turn but that doesn't chage his play being correct.

Your hand is the easiest fold of a "made hand" getting 12-1 you'll ever see, I can't imagine a pot being big enough here for me to call in all realism.
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Old May 25, 2010, 6:56pm   #7
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Quote:
and/or assuming someone would be on a flush draw. Which, in this case, no one was.
Try not to think in absolutes. It isn't the assumption that someone will be on the flush draw, merely that the 6h will complete the flush draw and thus the % of people who are on the flush draw (who will likely be calling at 12:1) will be ahead unless you boat up. If you can estimate that % then you can calculate odds closer to your actual odds.
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Old Jun 01, 2010, 10:42pm   #8
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Reasons why this is a fold in order:

1. The flop sucks and you only have 2 outs
2. There are still two people behind you that could raise, and then the pot could easily go to 3 or 4 bets.
3. Even if you hit your 2 outs you still could lose on the river(You will lose about 35% to a bigger set, straight or flush)
4. You dont have the 6h, increasing the amount of times you lose when you hit in number 3.

Conclusion: The fact that there are people that could raise behind you is a a much bigger concern than not having the 6h, and even if you were closing the action it is a fold.


Edit- Also preflop is really thin to.... if I was playing in a live mid stakes game or tourny I probably would call because I would be somewhat bored and its not that bad. But if I was in a game where I cared about winning money I would fold

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