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Old Oct 14, 2010, 1:43pm   #1
podbelski
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Default NL100: 2nd NFD+GS vs check-raise - line check

I have a feeling everyone plays tourneys only here, anyway I hope to see some solid replies:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed)

Hero (CO) ($102)
Button ($118.50)
SB ($100.50)
BB ($112.50)
UTG ($135.20)
MP ($87.30)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9, K
2 folds, Hero bets $3, 2 folds, BB calls $2

Flop: ($6.50) 8, 5, 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $5.20, BB raises to $15.50, Hero calls $10.30

Turn: ($37.50) 10 (2 players)
BB bets $22, Hero calls $22

River: ($81.50) 6 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero takes time having 61.50 behind...

The villain is a losing reg, no reads, he played 24/16/AF3/3b:7 over 40 hands, that's all I have on him.

Do you think it is better to shove the flop? As played, any reason to shove the turn? Any comments for the river other than shove?
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Old Oct 14, 2010, 2:04pm   #2
DirtySanchez80
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ok 40hands is not a lot but u might have the impression that he is pretty aggro postflop or more on the passive (floaty/stationy) site.

24/16 seems a bit more like a player who calls wide in the bb

shoving the flop doesnt accomplish to much good for us

vs most opp. i play it like u did.. cause i dont think that we are in very good shape when we get it in on the flop and we have still good implied odds if we hit.

against some opp. who i believe are raising the flop with TP, or 99-TT and all weaker FD like QJ JT QT and also some bluffs i would try to stack off on the flop cause than u are in good shape vs most of his hands and also have some FE.


and the river is a mandatory tankshove
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Old Oct 14, 2010, 2:08pm   #3
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Thank you, yes I think we should assume he's quite aggro, treat his stats like they are for a bigger hand sample.

Any adjustments if you have Ac9c? Or maybe Ac2c? I think it should be closer to a flop shove, but not sure how much
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Old Oct 16, 2010, 3:09am   #4
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I like shoveing the turn


as played shove river
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Old Oct 16, 2010, 7:31am   #5
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Originally Posted by acehole_76 View Post
I like shoveing the turn
nah that's unfounded, a solid player must always have an explanation for his actions
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Old Oct 16, 2010, 2:10pm   #6
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Originally Posted by podbelski View Post
nah that's unfounded, a solid player must always have an explanation for his actions
greenstein said so.

his checkraise tells you he has a hand, stacking off on the flop is going to get you in trouble. you're likely to fold out the hands you are a favourite over and leave hands like sets (2/1 dog), two pair (4/3 dog), nut flush draw (5/2 dog). the worst hand you'll keep in is probably pair+oesd which is dead on evens.

the same can be said about the turn. you are now repping a much stronger hand but you're going to be laying him about 7/4 to hang around, add to this that even with the extra outs, you now only complete a straight or better 32.5% of the time (compared to ~45% on the flop). i'm an advocate of the shoving draws on the turn concept, because it does look stronger, but here we have every reason to believe he has a good hand.

on both sides of the equation, his being likely to have a good hand favours the draw and value bet line; you have less fold equity with the draw (than you do in a vacuum), and a better chance of getting paid when you hit. finally, there are some bad cards can come on the turn that destroy your draw, which you can duck.

as for the river, yeah, make it look like you're thinking and shove.

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Old Oct 16, 2010, 3:10pm   #7
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stated clearly, accepted, thanks!
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