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Old Apr 17, 2011, 7:44am   #441
killcrazy
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Originally Posted by glockers View Post
I don't think I played that wolf game bad. I looked special which was an effort to get the wolves to waste an eat. I caught out kmay early and led the charge to hang him. I think it was post 12 or so.
trying to look special would be an example of creative and bad imo. it's actually very hard to get yourself eaten, and when you're still alive the next day you're left with dirt on you. it is almost never in the village's interests for a villager to create complications. it's much better for him to just play normally and perhaps get himself cleared by virtue of this than it is for him to tar himself and dance around the chickens.

i will grant you were adamant kmay was a wolf but you did not catch him. nobody caught kmay because he was not playing to keep himself alive. the strategy was clearly to bump off a couple of decent villagers in exchange for himself and set tj up to go deep, with a small chance that the village might get it wrong on day 3 and lose right there.

lets say for arguments sake he eats jokeslayer on night 2 and js is a villager, kmay is claiming seer on day 3 and announcing that glockers is a wolf. kmay's weirdness is now explained, glockers hangs, wolves win. with this in mind, eating the seer pick on night 2 is a mistake. eating garso would be max EV, because garso is the only one who might be able to stop kmay quickly enough.

day 2 is where this went wrong. expop was a terrible hang (and kmay did a good job of smearing him). the road to nailing kmay passed through axis of evil. axis posted something that kmay should recognise as being a wolf tell. when other players start beating the aoe drum, villagerkmay would reread aoe, see it himself and join the party. the only other explanation would be that kmay was the seer and had checked axis.

i was surprised so few people picked up on this because it was a rare intersection of actual wolftell and post people think is a wolftell, but when they didn't, ace should have hammered this home before he died.

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Old Apr 17, 2011, 8:22am   #442
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the only other explanation would be that kmay was the seer and had checked axis.
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if I die don't hang garso tomorrow, wait if you do it at all. thanks to swoops post a lot of wolves eat one of us tonight hoping to hang the other.

aoe is a villager imo, so is tjtay.

swoop and staphros are probably villagers.
This was supposed to be my prep post for coming out as the seer, if my jokeslayer read was wrong. I tried to make it in such a way that people could see I didn't just randomly come up with the idea of being seer, but if I didn't claim then it wouldn't damn me. I would have "picked" aoe and tjtay as villagers, saying aoe right away and we can't hang him, but also saying tjtay in the event he got any traction that day.

my problem with saying glockers or anyone was a pick and a wolf was that if jokeslayer wasn't the seer, I wasn't sure who was and if say swoop was, and he comes out and says glockers is actually a villager we are in a weird spot. Some people would want to hang glockers to get the seer situation straight, but I'd have to count on people fucking up and not recognizing that wolf swoop never comes out to save glockers knowing that it kills 2 wolves (unless they win that day, which no one would have predicted).
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eating the seer pick on night 2 is a mistake. eating garso would be max EV, because garso is the only one who might be able to stop kmay quickly enough.
I bounced back and forth on this and the only thing that stopped me from doing it is that I thought tjtay had an ok shot at being picked. He hadn't really interacted with anyone, he hadn't been up for voting, and he would be expected to live a long time. If this happens and I come up as seer and he comes up and says well I'm actually the seer, tjtay is a wolf, we get in iffy territory. Again, we are in the same position as above where I count on the village fucking up.

Since basically our strategy relied on tjtay going deep if we couldn't get the win on day 3, I figured I'd just take the low variance method and eat off a seer read.

Speaking of which, who did jokeslayer pick to reveal the night he died?
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Old Apr 17, 2011, 8:41am   #443
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Originally Posted by kmay06 View Post
Speaking of which, who did jokeslayer pick to reveal the night he died?
I checked Staphros that night, I don't really know why.

There's a post somewhere (i forget where) with you thinkning I didn't get a n0 pick. Was that a genuine mistake? (I did have a n0 pick, which is how I had two knowns when I died on n2)
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Old Apr 17, 2011, 9:21am   #444
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my problem with saying glockers or anyone was a pick and a wolf was that if jokeslayer wasn't the seer, I wasn't sure who was and if say swoop was, and he comes out and says glockers is actually a villager we are in a weird spot. Some people would want to hang glockers to get the seer situation straight, but I'd have to count on people fucking up and not recognizing that wolf swoop never comes out to save glockers knowing that it kills 2 wolves (unless they win that day, which no one would have predicted).
yeah but it works both ways. the problem only arises if both seer claimants are claiming that the other's wolf is a villager, you can mitigate that somewhat by naming a player you doubt is going to have been checked, when it will be your wolf that is hanged to determine the seer, not the seer's wolf that you claim is a vil.

also, it's enough for you to simply get a villager hanged, it doesn't really matter who, it doesnt have to be the guy you claim is a wolf. this gives you a big advantage in the fight. if necessary you can also force the issue by claiming that you are more powerful than the other seer (claim an extra n0 pick with was ace/deadgarso or claim that your last pick will be posted by me when you get eaten or whatever) and that therefore there must be three wolves so the village must decide today. you have a lot of resources open to you.

i wonder if you might have misplayed your set up clearing aoe though, because it allows a situation where you come out claiming he's a vil and the seer claims he's a caught aoewolf. if you don't clear aoe you can say "obviously he's claiming aoe as his wolf, aoe has been dead since day 1".

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Old Apr 17, 2011, 4:25pm   #445
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i wonder if you might have misplayed your set up clearing aoe though, because it allows a situation where you come out claiming he's a vil and the seer claims he's a caught aoewolf. if you don't clear aoe you can say "obviously he's claiming aoe as his wolf, aoe has been dead since day 1".
The problem is that I shouldn't need to come out to save aoe if I don't have him as a pick. He was hanging that day 100% without intervention. I could have just waited as the seer. I don't make mistakes like that as the seer, and I'm pretty sure at the least swoop would have known that, and he'd probably default as village leader with garso dead.

the other problem is that the village might decide to go ahead and hang aoe, and see who the wolves eat that night.
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Old Apr 17, 2011, 5:01pm   #446
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The problem is that I shouldn't need to come out to save aoe if I don't have him as a pick. He was hanging that day 100% without intervention. I could have just waited as the seer. I don't make mistakes like that as the seer, and I'm pretty sure at the least swoop would have known that, and he'd probably default as village leader with garso dead.

the other problem is that the village might decide to go ahead and hang aoe, and see who the wolves eat that night.
i'm talking specifically about the situation where you come out with a fakewolf on day 3, and the seer comes out with aoe. if you are claiming him as a vil and the seer is claiming him as a wolf, you're done because aoe will hang over anyone else at that point. if however you have nothing to say about him and the seer claims him as a wolf, you can throw dirt on his claim on the basis that aoe was ldo a wolf so obviously he's giving aoe up to get himself in as seer, even if aoe hangs, it proves nothing, you can keep up the pretence.

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Old Apr 17, 2011, 10:33pm   #447
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Originally Posted by killcrazy View Post
i'm talking specifically about the situation where you come out with a fakewolf on day 3, and the seer comes out with aoe. if you are claiming him as a vil and the seer is claiming him as a wolf, you're done because aoe will hang over anyone else at that point. if however you have nothing to say about him and the seer claims him as a wolf, you can throw dirt on his claim on the basis that aoe was ldo a wolf so obviously he's giving aoe up to get himself in as seer, even if aoe hangs, it proves nothing, you can keep up the pretence.

Kc
I suppose. Though the chance aoe was picked was pretty damn small imo. Much more likely was that if I picked a wolf as say glockers/staphros, and jokeslayer comes out and says nope, glockers is a villager, then I think it's much less likely glockers hangs there given that jokeslayer doesn't come out to protect a wolf and that would be easy to recognize. In the chance they were wrong, they might let the wolves decide by eat who the real seer is, meaning they hang aoe anyway.

Likewise, if I didn't want to fakewolf name for that reason but I had to have 2 picks then I'd have to name a villager as a villager. If I do that and he is actually the seer and comes out, it looks pretty bad for me.

Something I had considered was at the changeover name tjtay as a wolf and say aoe was a villager (or vice versa) and someone else was a villager, get tjtay hung confirming me as seer and saying that there is 100% no angel and probably 3 wolves because I have 4-5 picks total and the ability to shield myself twice in the game and I had both left. Effectively claiming seerangel. I figured it'd be weird enough that most people would buy it as hard to make up, and I could then eat the confirmed villager who was obviously a villager (swoop, lets say) and then hang a non-villager day 4 for the win. It made it pretty hard for jokeslayer to do anything to get people on his side.

I liked this better than claiming weak seer to justify myself being alive the next day. I ended up not because I thought it was too fps but it would have been interesting.
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