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Old Mar 19, 2011, 7:48pm   #1
TallJohn
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Default When to value-shove

I'm pretty consistently winning small pots and losing big ones (like most break-even or worse players I suspect). I've been working on not falling so much in love with TPTK oop 100bb deep, but am running into problems with better hands. Would appreciate expert advice on how to think hands like this through. Rush poker, so no reads on villain (other than his stack size, which tells me he's less likely than most to be a complete fish).

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
saw flop
CO ($4.05)
Button ($16.68 )
SB ($6.68 )
BB ($9.35)
UTG ($10.25)
UTG+1 ($7.98 )
Hero (MP1) ($16.51)
MP2 ($11.80)
MP3 ($24.10)
Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q, Q
2 folds, Hero bets $0.35, 1 fold, MP3 calls $0.35, 4 folds
Flop: ($0.85) 9, 9, 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.60, MP3 calls $0.60
- Of course, if he has 9x I'm stacked (should I be thinking this way?). After the flop call I'm figuring his non 9x range as 22-QQ, JT-KQ, AJ, AQ.
Turn: ($2.05) J (2 players)
Hero bets $1.50, MP3 calls $1.50
- He doesn't go away, which in my mind takes KQ and AQ out of his range.
River: ($5.05) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $4, MP3 raises to $8, Hero raises to $14.06 (All-In), MP3 calls $6.06
Total pot: $33.17 | Rake: $2
- I'm still crushing most of what I think his range is, so I value-bet the river. His min-raise is the key to my question--should I take it to mean that his range is down to precisely JJ, 9x? I thought about it a bit, and thought there was a good enough chance he had enough Jx hands in his range to make this a value-shove spot.

So, did I think this through correctly?
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Old Mar 19, 2011, 9:55pm   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TallJohn View Post
Would appreciate expert advice on how to think hands like this through.
I'm sure you would, the fuck are you doing here?

you might be overthinking this hand, it's an abc valuebet valuebet valuebet valuebet situation. fish can't fold boats. when he plays back at you his most likely hand is JX simply because any pair smaller than yours would have likely played back before now to defend against/extract value from your drawing on overcard. he can have the case 9, but you're about oh, lets say, 9/2 favourite over his river calling range, when he raises you're still no worse than 5/2 favourite.

Kc
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Old Mar 21, 2011, 12:53am   #3
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Thanks
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Old Mar 23, 2011, 11:27pm   #4
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You played it fine.
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Old Mar 24, 2011, 3:40pm   #5
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At these stakes I think you played it fine. 50NL or above we probably just call the river when raised.
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Old Mar 28, 2011, 12:37am   #6
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i think his hand range even after the reraise still puts you in favor
you did well
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Old May 07, 2011, 2:00am   #7
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I may be the only one, but I think the river is a clear bet/fold if you're read less.

His line just doesn't make any sense with the mini-raise on the river unless he has you beat with 9-x, JJ, or slow played AA, KK.

I just really never see a guy ever showing down J-x in this spot unless he's a mega fish.
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