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Old Mar 28, 2004, 11:53pm   #11
Kazz
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coyote
His hand actually had a 50%+ chance of winning,

So going all-in on a coin flip is a good idea? You can sit at my table anytime.
If the coin flip will return you up to 4x your money, then yes I think it's a good idea. If you'll check/fold a draw that good every time, then I'd love to sit at your table. ;)

Also, don't forget that he had more than a 50% shot at winning. The Queens only had a little better than a 40% chance, and the 10s only had about a 6% chance, making their calls worse than his bet, if you want to look at it that way.
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Old Mar 29, 2004, 1:12am   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by packattack88
It is a bad call because if someone did match their set, you need 2 running cards. Somebody could still have pocket tens-queens in which you are a big underdog. If they have pocket kings you have three outs, and if they have pocket aces you're beat. It is a very risky play, and I don't know Kazz, but 20 bucks is not something I want to lose.
Like I said before, I don't think it's a good idea to assume that you're in worse shape because someone could possibly have a set. If you'd hit an Ace or King, would you still just lay it down because someone else might have caught a set? That pair wouldn't put you in a much better position against it. Even if you had 2 pair you'd only have a few outs against a set, and just about a 25% chance of winning at best. You just can't worry about someone else having a set every hand, or you'll have to lay almost everything down.

Since you didn't mention it, you may not have noticed, but he had the nut flush draw as well as 2 overcards, so even against a set he didn't have to have 2 runners, he could win with any spade as long as the board didn't pair.

I don't want to lose $20 either, but I'm certainly willing to risk it if I have a decent chance of winning $60.
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Old Mar 29, 2004, 1:43am   #13
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Ok, I didn't see that he had a flush draw, but do you really want to bet 20 bones on a draw? Sure, if you hit an ace or king, I wouldn't assume someone had a set. But if you don't, you have to realize the hands out there that have you beat.
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Old Mar 29, 2004, 3:14am   #14
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Being on a draw is irrelevant. A 50% chance to win is a 50% chance to win whether you have a hand already or not.

This is some shockingly poor thinking going on here.

AND

anytime you are getting odds that are in your favor, if your roll can afford it, you take the shot. Thats the whole point of poker, especially NL.


Coyote, what good is someone going all in on a coin flip at your table if your too chicken to call an all-in on a coin flip? He would eat you for breakfast by taking advantage of your scared play.
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Old Mar 29, 2004, 4:07am   #15
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Sorry, I'm a tight player. If someone asked me to flip a coin for 20 bones, I would laugh in their face.
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Old Mar 29, 2004, 5:01am   #16
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I may be wrong, but I'm pretty sure it's still not 50%. It's less than that. Since poker is a calculated risk I don't think this was correct the move. Even if it's 49.99%. Especially with 2 other guys in the pot. Had the pot of been over $40 yes maybe but not $18. When the numbers add up then you pull the trigger. I could see doing this if this was some big multi Tourney and your on the shortstack though.
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Old Mar 29, 2004, 2:07pm   #17
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Well I finally figured out how to use the hand simulator on this site and here is what I came up with

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV

As Ks 464 51.38 430 47.62 9 1.00 0.517
Qc Qh 354 39.20 540 59.80 9 1.00 0.395
Js Jd 76 8.42 818 90.59 9 1.00 0.087

As Ks 230 25.47 664 73.53 9 1.00 0.258
Qd Qh 40 4.43 854 94.57 9 1.00 0.048
9c 9h 624 69.10 270 29.90 9 1.00 0.694

As Ks 228 25.25 666 73.75 9 1.00 0.256
Ac Ad 33 3.65 861 95.35 9 1.00 0.040
9c 9h 633 70.10 261 28.90 9 1.00 0.704

As Ks 338 37.43 556 61.57 9 1.00 0.378
Kc Kd 33 3.65 861 95.35 9 1.00 0.040
Ac Ah 523 57.92 371 41.09 9 1.00 0.583


these numbers are according to the hand simulator on this page it means that I have

1 to 1 chance of winning against QQ/JJ
1 in 4 chance against 99/Overpair
1 in 2.5 change against AA/KK

23 dollars to make 80...means I am almost getting paid 1 to 4 if I hit

Which means over 4 times with 2 callers every time, I make money unless someone has trips every single time...which is very unlikley.

ALSO these numbers do NOT account for the possibilty that everyone might fold...which seems to be what would happen if I were sitting down with half the people that responded to this thread. Which I believe ups the long term profitability of this move even more.
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Old Mar 29, 2004, 3:15pm   #18
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There's a lot of people that need to go reread 2Guns NL ring game advice. Especially the part under pot odds. Even if the poster would've had a 33% chance of winning the hand he should've moved all-in. He's risking $18 to win $36 if he gets one caller and $54 if he gets two callers. It's like he's playing roulette and puts his money on the 1st 12 numbers which pays 3:1 except his roulette wheel only has 34 numbers instead of 38. Sure, he won't win half his bets but the longer he makes these bets with these odds the more he'll come out ahead.

In a NL tourney this hand would not be played the same and would be played differently according to chip stack as well.

Short stack - all-in preflop
Medium stack - Very tough decision. Call preflop and probably fold to any large bet postflop. A more aggressive move would be to go all-in after the flop and hope for no callers. I'd make this move if the table was fairly passive and/or the others in the hand didn't have huge stacks compared to mine.
Large Stack - Possible reraise preflop, at least a call. Bet after the flop and call any all-in's unless losing would cripple your chip total.
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Old Mar 29, 2004, 4:07pm   #19
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pack, if 3 people put in 7 dollars, and you agree they get heads, and you get tails...you aren't going to take it?
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Old Mar 29, 2004, 6:42pm   #20
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Coyote, what good is someone going all in on a coin flip at your table if your too chicken to call an all-in on a coin flip? He would eat you for breakfast by taking advantage of your scared play.



That's funny.
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