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Old Mar 29, 2004, 6:50pm   #21
manutdfan1
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This is a good post, so I'm going to continue on (been thinking about this all day). I'm just talking it out, so don't anyone get all serious on me. You had a 48.50% chance of winning. Your in the best position, though you were unsure what everyone had. I'll guess that you figured the guys you were against were rather loose, because pocket AA or KK change everything (% wise). I'm not sure what you thought, but if I was in you're positon I would of felt that I'd only get 1 caller on an all in bet, and a smaller chance of not anyone at all (best thing). So you got two. This wasn't a bad thing because then the pot odds justified this type of bet. So you got two things going for you pot odds and best chance of winning. The turn and river didn't help and the guy with pocket Q's wins. Crap!! Up untill the turn things were in you favor.

Still you iniated the all in bet not knowing who would call. Why not bet $6 and see what happens? Maybe the problem with doing that is it would give the other guys a draw and if a spade doen't hit it's going to make for an uncomfortable situation. But if you hit it's almost a sure thing that no draw is going to beat you. Why not check or make an absurd small bet hoping for a call or a reraise? If you get the reraise than go all in right there or reraise. If you get a call it cost you a buck to see another card. Of course if a spade comes up people are going to figure someone hit the flush. Especially if you go all in. Still you never know I've seen stupid things before. My guess is there's some goofy players at 25 NL. Also, if a spade dosn't come up and you check again a good player will make you suffer to get to the river. Though a good player would of reraised a low bet. AHHHHHHHHH!

With all my nonsense said, I guess the crux of the issue is the following: Was this a well calculated risk. I'm still not certain. After thinking about this, I'm believing that NL ring game issues are little less certain than limit. And quality limit play may be wrong in NL ring games. Still if the pot was $1800 instead of $18 and I had $1800 in my stack, I don't think I would of gone all in without seeing what the others were thinking.
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Old Mar 29, 2004, 8:31pm   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Notjitsu
pack, if 3 people put in 7 dollars, and you agree they get heads, and you get tails...you aren't going to take it?
Your assuming that they have to play. In this game, your already in and youre asking them to join you. And if someone has a pocket over pair and a big stack of chips already he will be tempted. So if you get 1 guy to play along (say the guy with pocket QQ's) and the other opts to fold you only have a 2.82% chance of winning and the pot odds are against you. Sure if you want to flip a coin against one guy with a 2.82% advantage you will win in the end. But you better have the cash to stick around for a 4000 flips.
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Old Mar 29, 2004, 9:14pm   #23
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Any bet at a NL ring game is supposed to be called according to pot odds if the chance of winning is over 50%, AsKs vs QsQd is a 51% favorite(54% if the guy with the queens doesn't have the Qs). Theoretically, let's say there is no money in the pot and this flop comes and you know for a fact the player has 2 queens and everyone else folds. Would you call the guy with 2 Queens if he goes all-in? I'd hope so because that is what 99% of professional players would do.

With $18 already in the pot the call against 2 queens should be a no brainer. Since if you get one caller the pot would be $54, essentially you are risking $18 to win $36(the money already in the pot plus the money put in there by the player that calls the all-in). You would only need a 33% chance or greater of winning this hand to get good pot odds.

Just for fun let's play this theoretical situation out 200 times, the first 100 we'll fold after the flop and the next 100 we'll go all-in and have the QQ call us.

By folding we are losing $0 and have a 0% chance of winning this hand. For a total profit of $0.

Against QsQd we will win 51 times and lose 49 times. We lose $1800 for raising all-in 100 times but win $54 51 times which turns out to be $2754. For a total profit of $954. Which divided by 100 is equal to $9.54. So in theory by folding against QQ you are missing out on $9.54.
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Old Mar 29, 2004, 9:27pm   #24
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manut, your second post brings up the unmentioned possibility that everybody folds, and he wins the 18 straight up.
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Old Mar 29, 2004, 9:34pm   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Notjitsu
manut, your second post brings up the unmentioned possibility that everybody folds, and he wins the 18 straight up.
I know, I'm having fun with the post and just wanted to keep talking it out.
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Old Mar 29, 2004, 9:47pm   #26
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"Against QsQd we will win 51 times and lose 49 times. We lose $1800 for raising all-in 100 times but win $54 51 times which turns out to be $2754. For a total profit of $954. Which divided by 100 is equal to $9.54. So in theory by folding against QQ you are missing out on $9.54."

Hope you win the first 100 times because I know I don't have the cash to lose the first 100.
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