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Old Dec 28, 2004, 5:12am   #1
zemidjan_99
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Default Laydown the set?

Seat 2: [ Kc 2c ] is BB
Seat 9: [ 7s 7h ]
Flop [ Jc 8c 7c]
Turn[Qs]
River[Qh]
Board: [ Jc 8c 7c Qs Qh]


5 callers. At the flop there is $2.75 in the pot. Flop bet checks around to seat 9, who has set but is worried about the flush. Seat 9 over pot bets with one caller. Pot is 8.35 (net Rake). Remaining caller Seat 2/BB checks and Seat 9 pot bets again, thus has 11.85 committed at which point seat 2 raises 8.35; pot is approx. 33.40. Seat 9 believes seat 2 has a flush. Does seat 9 have decent odds to call to the river? Obviously, seat 9 needs to pair the board and has 10 outs.
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Old Dec 28, 2004, 11:43am   #2
packattack88
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If I did my math correctly, you can only call another $7.35 more.

In my opinion, this hand was played very poorly by Seat 9. With 5 people seeing the flop, it's very likely that not only could someone have the flush, but someone could easily have T9 for the straight. Seat 9 should have been checking IMO and hoping to get a free card to pair the board.
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Old Dec 28, 2004, 12:58pm   #3
zemidjan_99
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Default That...

...is definitely right. Why is seat 9 betting when he has option for a free card? That's about what I came up with as far as pot odds are concerned.
Nevertheless, somewhat marginal to call. Is there implied odds here or are those only calculated on the flop? Also, should seat 2 have pushed instead of raising the bet?

Here are the chip stacks at the beginning of the hand.
Seat 2: $34.8
Seat 9: $123.14
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Old Dec 28, 2004, 1:39pm   #4
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Seat 2 does have some cards to worry about. A 9 or T of clubs brings a possible straight flush draw, another club could give someone the Ace high flush, and someone with a set has plenty of outs as well. Because of all this, I think seat 2 has to jam the pot on the flop.
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Old Dec 28, 2004, 3:13pm   #5
zemidjan_99
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Default Push on Showdown

Last question in this folly of errors, should seat 2 push on river? Obviously, the answer is no. But that is what happened. Easy call for seat 9 (highlight original post to see river).

At the time I said to myself and even typed on the chat, “this is dumb”, which makes me feel better that my instincts were correct (if only I listened to them more often!!!!). But I did feel somewhat pot committed. Fortunately, I was bailed out by the river.

I agree with you pack, I don’t like the slow play by seat 2 with so many cards out there that could beat him. Surely, jamming the pot at the flop scares everyone away but the nut flush (AcXc) and str8 flush (Qc9c and 10c9c). If a set wants to draw to pair the board you should make it costly for him. Sometimes you have to be happy with 5 ½ blinds. Heck, if he had check raised on the flop, I probably would have laid down.

I played this horribly on the turn when I could have seen a free card. No need to be aggressive when the only person that would have called me on the flop is someone with the flush or a flush draw which is what I put him on. But if he is on the flush draw, do I give him a free card to make his hand? I guess so. since it is a free card to make my hand also. By betting on the turn, I put myself in a position where I had to call his odds when he raised to make my hand. Live, play and learn.

That being said, I still struggle with the idea of implied odds. Seems to me people throw “implied odds” out there when they call against pot odds, and they only come to fruition when you hit your hand and get paid.
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Old Dec 28, 2004, 3:31pm   #6
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All I can really say is that, with a flop of three of the same suit, and a straight possible as well, you have to treat your set as a drawing hand.

I don't factor in implied odds because I don't know if someone else will pay off my hand if I hit my draw.
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