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Old Jan 21, 2005, 8:53pm   #1
Ibluff
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Default Yet another pot odds question

5/10 NL
I try to limp in with A 5 diamonds
Player A raises to $25 -
Player B calls
I call
Player C calls

Flop comes 2 3 9 - (3 & 9 are diamonds)
Player A bets $80
Player B raises to $160

Now, pot is $355 at this point and I'm to call $160. I figure I have 12 outs (nine flush cards + four 4's - 1 (can't count the 4 of diamonds twice)) = 12. I wasn't counting the Ace because I had a strong feeling one of these guys was betting their pair with Ace kicker. However, I'm sure a case could be made for adding 3 more outs.

$160/$515 = approx 31%

My odds for hitting BY THE RIVER are approx 45%, but my odds of hitting the turn are closer to 25%. I know the correct answer is to make this call of $160, but I've always had trouble understanding why you wouldn't use the chance to hitting on the turn to make this call? 45% doesn't take into account the betting that will occur on the Turn which would negate the odds you had for calling the flop. Hope I'm making sense...

Oh ya,
I called $160
Player C folded
Player A folded

Turn was 2 of diamonds

Player B checked
I bet $225
Player B folded

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Old Jan 21, 2005, 9:02pm   #2
Yads
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Well you would use the odds to hit on the turn if you want to call, however you also have implied odds to take care of. Frankly I might push this hand on the flop. Depending on how much variance you would want. You have 12 outs that are clean and let's discount your ace outs by half so 1.5 outs for a total of 13.5 outs. So you're just worse than even money. Add your folding equity and the fact that all of your opponents might call would turn this situation into a push.
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Old Jan 21, 2005, 9:27pm   #3
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I would tell you what I think, but the last time I did that, Yads started acting like a 5th grader on me.
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Old Jan 21, 2005, 10:02pm   #4
Ibluff
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Ya, he scolded me for not reading an entire thread that relates to this very topic, so I was surprised that he was the first to respond. LOL Thanks for the input Yads. However, if I had 13.5 outs that would give me a 29-ish % chance of hitting on the turn. Take away implied odds and conventional wisdom would tell you to fold. It seems everybody bases they’re bets on percentages that take them to the river and this is what I don’t understand…

Pac, you always give good advice so please throw in your 2 cents.

Thanks!
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Old Jan 21, 2005, 11:11pm   #5
Yads
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Well this is because this is actually a slightly different topic since you can use the percentages to complete by the river in order to bet out on the flop. This wasn't one of those "the pot is giving me 2:1 odss but I have 6 outs should I call" questions.
Here if you use straight odds to hit by the turn, this would make it a clear fold if you just use pot odds. If you use implied odds it would make a call marginal since you're not likely to get paid off if a flush does hit. Now if you look at the chances of completing by the river you'll notice that it's about 48%. (Fluctuating between being a slight favorite and a slight underdog, depending on whether your ace outs are clean.) So you could use these odds to figure out whether you should in fact bet or raise yourself since you also have folding equity when you do bet.
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Old Jan 22, 2005, 10:08am   #6
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Wow, this is a great example/topic. Thank you Yads for the posts, though I would like to ask a few questions. (I also hope others, like packattack would also comment)

This hand example is a great way to analyze implied odds. The A5s has the flush draw and a gutshot draw, 12 outs. (13.5 with the discounted A outs). So implied odds have the A5s at a slight dog (between 45% and 49%).

I take this situation to mean I have a good semi-bluff on my hands. However, how much does one bluff/bet on the flop? Yads, you mentioned pushing this hand on the flop. Does that mean all-in or a reraise? And if a reraise, by how much? 160 to 240? or 320?

Also, Yads mentioned "variance" and "folding equity". Can someone help me out with an explanation to these terms (esp. folding equity), or post a link to a webpage that discusses this. Thank you.
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Old Jan 22, 2005, 4:46pm   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vitaltilt
I take this situation to mean I have a good semi-bluff on my hands. However, how much does one bluff/bet on the flop? Yads, you mentioned pushing this hand on the flop. Does that mean all-in or a reraise? And if a reraise, by how much? 160 to 240? or 320?
I was wondering about this too. At this point I had approx $1000 at the table and Player B had something like $450. I thougth if I raised he might come over the top of me which I really didn't want (not knowing what Player A would do). Thoughts???
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Old Jan 24, 2005, 4:40pm   #8
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Ok variance means just what it sounds like, randomness. Since even if you do get called you're almost even money to win. In the long run you'll win just under half of the pots. However in the short run variance rules and you could win the next 10 times you play, or you could lose the next 10 times you play. So if you're playing with your entire bankroll it's probably not a good idea to push in this situation.
Now folding equity means that in addition to the 48% of the time you do win just based on the cards that come, if you raise a substantial amount or even raise all in some of the time your opponents will fold hands that beat you at the moment. So let's say even if you they fold 5% of the time they have you beat you'll have a profitable opportunity here.

Now as far as how much should you bet, well that would depend on how much you think your opponents would fold certain hands. You could push all in and try to fully push your edge since even if your ace outs are not clean and somebody has 2 pair or a set, against the set you're about a 2:1 dog and against the 2 pair you're just under 3:2. So even against the set you're not in horrible shape.
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Old Jan 25, 2005, 12:15am   #9
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Okay cool. Thanks Yads. Yeah, variance makes good sense -- especially with the dynamic relationship of playing style and chipstack size in NL. And looks like I guessed right about folding equity as well (just wanted to make sure it had nothing to do with me folding my hand).

Yeah, so a reraise here on the flop would have been a good idea (from 160 to 320) because only a re-reraise would be scary. And player B might have folded to the reraise as well.

Yeah, I am coming to understand how it is better to raise than to call in NL -- especially in these situations where one has a decent hand (with good draws) but isn't absolutely sure if it is already the winner.
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