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Old Mar 21, 2005, 9:58pm   #1
AwesomeO4000
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Default When to fold a set on the flop?

I was playing at a $50 NL ring game the other day, and I was dealt 22 in mid postion. UTG limped in and there was one more caller to me. I decided to call to see a cheap flop(there was a lot to this going on). The Button calls and the SB calls and the BB checks. So there is 6 to the flop and $3 in the pot. Flop is Q 7 2, all hearts. The SB checked, the BB made a pot sized bet. The next guy called and the next guy raised all-in(he had everyone in the hand covered). I think about it for a long time and decide to fold. This was one of the first 10 hands I had played at the table and I didn't have a very good read on my oppenent. Everyone folded and the guy didn't show his cards. He clams he already had the flush, but who knows. Should I have called. What would some of you done in that position.
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Old Mar 21, 2005, 10:01pm   #2
packattack88
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Yeah, I would fold. He probably didn't have the A-high flush, since most would slowplay it, so if he had like a J high for example, he would want to punish anyone drawing to the nut flush. It's also possible that someone even has a higher set than you, as well as people that could have you beat that still have to act behind you.
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Old Mar 21, 2005, 11:38pm   #3
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I'd have to agree - there's better than a 1 in 3 chance of another heart falling, and even if you had the 2 of hearts, you lose to anyone else with a heart. Sux to have to fold a flopped set (espc the kind that comes from your pocket pair, which is safer than a paired board), but given pot odds at this point and the number of callers, gotta let it go.

Sorry, but good fold.
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Old Mar 22, 2005, 4:51am   #4
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Good fold...you don't want to go broke in an unraised (preflop) pot.
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Old Mar 22, 2005, 11:42am   #5
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this is a good fold in many regards -- the higher set could be out there, as could the flush, but even if mr all-in had the A high flush draw, he could be getting decent odds since he only needs two all-ins behind him to justify it.
of course you have reverse odds of the turning into a full house, but with a low set i think it is too vulnerable --- i would prolly call if it was folded to me with a top set, but i'm not sure, lol --- yeah, i'm sure, i'm not letting go of top set on the flop, lol.

even if it was the best hand at the time, this was a solid fold
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Old Mar 22, 2005, 12:25pm   #6
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I think you call this.

Tell me what your stack was at the start of the hand and I'll spew math at you.

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Old Mar 22, 2005, 2:53pm   #7
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it was around 45$
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Old Mar 22, 2005, 3:01pm   #8
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I think I'd painfully lay it down in your situation. First guy leads out for 3, second guy calls...3rd guy goes allin...then you act, then 2 more people follow you, then the two original betters.

If we are giving the benefit of the doubt, at worst, the allin raiser has the flush.

if you were fully loaded at say 45, that would make a 54 dollar pot you need to put 45 into. Again, giving benefit of the doubt, the WORST anyone else is coming in with is the nut flush draw, or top two pair.

Now if you get allin vs. the flush, and a nut flush draw...your getting about the right odds. However...

If its just the guy with the flush, you aren't.
If its the guy with the flush, and another with a set, you have 2 outs.
If its the guy with the flush, and top two pair, you have 2 outs on the turn, 5 on the river (hopefully).


You would have to be VERY optimistic for this to be the right call I think. 'This guy is just going allin with a flush draw, and will get called by me and the guy with top pair' optimistic.

Because the positive realistic outcome isn't giving great odds, and the negative outcomes are bending you over the table, and letting you have it.
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Old Mar 22, 2005, 6:30pm   #9
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I keep changing my mind about this.

compelling argument to call, compelling argument to fold. The worry here isn't really the flush, it's a bigger set.

check back with me in a week

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Old Mar 22, 2005, 8:59pm   #10
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Golly, I hope he supports my opinion! Think of all the kudo's i'd get in the poker world!

*waiting on pins and needles while watching the calender*
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